ESTONIA
The press has been writing about the chances of improving relations with Russia. "Are there any common interests that would motivate the two countries to actions that would be to mutual advantage? We have cross border cooperation... but no big projects. This means that Estonia has some problems that it wants to resolve with Russia, whereas Russia has no similar interests in Estonia... There are probably some tricks that could put Russia into an uncomfortable position... We could think of such tricks but it is certain that Russia will reciprocate every Estonian trick with a dozen of its own, all of them most disagreeable. So it's better not to even try. We have failed to find strictly bilateral solutions so far." (Diplomatija, June 4.)
Referring to sociological polls, the media have concluded that the Russians consider Estonia one of the most hostile countries and blame this on the Russian authorities: "Last year, Estonia shared the fourth and fifth places with Ukraine among Russia's foes... [Russia's] tensions with Latvia and Lithuania have abated against the background of today's conflicts with Estonia... It is an alarming fact that the prevailing political situation can easily shift the enemy image from one country to another." (Postimees, June 2.) "The general public in Russia hates all nations that were once part of the Soviet Union. It will take several generations for this hatred to wither away. To what extent is the Russian government using this hatred is another matter, but it is playing a major role in any case." (Diplomatija, June 4.)
LATVIA
The press notes that Moscow is skillfully using its differences with Washington over ABM deployment in Europe in order to consolidate its positions at home and abroad. "Russia is using its objections to ABM as an excuse to exert pressure on East European countries and cause a split in Europe." (Diena, June 4.)
"Sergei Ivanov's bellicose statement about the ability to overcome the U.S. ABM shield is designed for the Russians who will elect Putin's successor next March." (Lavijas Avize, May 31.)
Experts believe that since the Yukos case Russian big business has been seeking a compromise with both the regional and federal government. Big business has powerful levers of financial and political influence but is totally loyal to the Kremlin. "Today, virtually all major Russian political parties are under the Kremlin's control, and those outside it are unable to get registered with the Justice Ministry and take part in the elections. The authorities are increasingly limiting the rights of foreign investors and companies in the Russian market... Some groups are capable of nominating their presidential candidate but the leaders are afraid of accepting the nomination." (Business&Baltia, June 4.)
LITHUANIA
The media are accusing Russia of reluctance to develop a partnership with the West, which is obstructing the efforts to enhance European security. "The Kremlin has responded to the start of the U.S.- Polish talks on the deployment of missile interceptors by pressing 'the launch button.' Just several hours after a successful launch of the RS-24 from Arkhangelsk to hit a target in the Pacific, Vladimir Putin announced the emergence of a new generation of missiles that could obviate any shield. He warned that unruly Europe may turn into a powder keg if it accepts American missiles. But Europe has already become one because of the inadequately militarized Kaliningrad Region and Transdnestr, energy blackmail and rampant activities of Russian secret services from London to Tallinn." (Lietuvos rytas, June 2.)
Experts are very concerned over energy independence, all the more so after energy minister Viktor Khristenko said that Russia was not going to resume oil supplies to Lithuania through the Druzhba (Friendship) pipeline. "The plans of the Polish PKN Orlen concern, which is in charge of oil companies in Lithuania [Mazeikiu Nafta], Poland and the Czech Republic, to buy oil deposits in the East are falling through... PKN Orflen has failed to come to an agreement with the Kazakh oil-and-gas KazMunayGaz concern on the acquisition of deposits, and now the Polish concern has given up similar intentions in Azerbaijan... The fight with Russia for raw materials has been lost." (Verslo zinios, May 30.)
BELARUS
Commentators show understanding for Moscow's CFE Treaty position. "The European Union has been talking to us about human values for many years; how come it cannot find a leader who would clearly explain the dangers of a new arms race?... Russia's withdrawal from the CFE Treaty is being presented as one more example of the Russian threat and militarization... Labeling is a dangerous game. Those who are painting such an ugly image of Russia (and not only of Russia) and are calling for isolation in Central Europe should realize that they are waking up destructive forces. Compared to the latter, some objectionable politicians may seem like angels to the West." (Belarus segodnya, May 30.)
Some experts are interpreting an unofficial customs ban on the exports of human genetic samples from Russia as a Kremlin-inspired political action. They believe that secret services are creating the illusion of a bacteriological war in view of the forthcoming elections.
"There is no real genetic or biological threat to Russia or Belarus, for that matter. It all rotates around the interests of Moscow financial clans and the forthcoming Duma and presidential elections in Russia... The closer the elections the more threats secret services will invent - up to the need to rebuff the invasion of aliens." (Telegraf, May 31.)
UKRAINE
Most observers are critical of the Russian president's statements on Ukraine at a news conference with journalists from G8 countries. "The head of a great power has condescended to speak about Ukraine. The former fraternal nation has gone over the limits on the international arena so many times that the Russian leaders cannot but be open about its conduct. And they are being open." (Provokatsiya, June 5.) "If someone has the right to talk about Ukraine's future in such a manner, 'the world's only democrat' Putin is unlikely to be that man." (ProUa, June 5.)
The media conclude that at the news conference Putin made the 2008 problem even more intriguing so as to prepare the voters for new zigzags in its resolution. "It is already obvious that Putin does not have a suitable successor... Neither Medvedev, nor Ivanov are a match for him. The president himself has said more than once that he will not go for a third term, and, besides, it's against the law. Isn't it the right time to change the law?" (Gazeta po-kievsky, June 5.)
MOLDOVA
Quoting a recent study, newspapers write that Moldova has lost $1.5 billion because of mistakes in its gas policy. "Experts maintain that Transdnestr stands to gain from the existing method of calculation, which does not cover any pipeline losses that have to be shouldered only by Moldova and Ukraine... All in all, Moldova has lost $103 million because it has not included new tariffs into transit costs and another $231 million because it has covered the losses of the Left Bank. In expert estimate, overall damage from mistakes in the gas policy has exceeded the amount of aid received from international donors in the past 15 years." (Flux, May 31.)
ARMENIA
Newspapers are indignant over the non-use of the much-advertised Kavkaz-Poti ferry. The Russian company that is in charge of it wants to monopolize cargo shipment in Armenia. "The most unacceptable term is the demand of the Reserve Capital Corporation to fully control Armenia's shipments. In other words, it wants to ship all cargoes to Armenia and from it. This is a dangerous prospect for Armenia, to put it mildly. Russia will use its company as one more lever for exerting political and economic pressure on Armenia." (168 zham, May 30.)
GEORGIA
The media are convinced that it is not possible to establish normal relations with Russia. "During the past year, all Russia's steps were counterproductive. It behaved like an angry teenager who looks in the mirror and breaks it because he does not like what he sees... Russia is an irrational country with psychological issues. It will have to break many stereotypes before it becomes a democracy." (24 saati, May 30.) "President Saakashvili... declared that he wants to develop friendly relations with Russia, that he is extending his hand in friendship to the Russian president. But Russia wants this hand to be extended by a man brought to his knees... The Russian government cannot be friends with anyone. It only wants to see yes-men instead of equal partners." (Akhali Taoba, June 1.)
AZERBAIJAN
The opposition media are concerned over unauthorized tapping of government communication channels in CIS countries by Russian secret services. "The telephone conversation between Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili and his Ukrainian counterpart Viktor Yushchenko was tapped. Its verbatim report appeared on Russian web sites. Georgian officials are saying that tapping a conversation at this level could be done by Russian secret services. This fact has again drawn attention to the Kremlin's secret policy towards the CIS. Russian secret services may have been tapping Azerbaijani and other CIS leaders." (Yeni musavat, May 31.)
The media have applauded the intention of Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko to limit the operation of Russian oil companies in Ukraine in favor of Azerbaijan. "Azerbaijan is going to conduct its offensive both in crude oil and oil products. It can go to Ukraine. At any rate, it shouldn't miss an opportunity -- it should be more aggressive in fighting for the huge Ukrainian market, all the more so as it has received a green light from Kiev." (Zerkalo, June 5.)
KAZAKHSTAN
Analysts believe that Russia's return to a planned economy should make its government policy more predictable. They think that politically, the draft budget for 2008-2010 will make it easier for the new president to assume office after the forthcoming elections. "The new law makes it possible to map out long-term priorities and avoid political collisions and risks... The good and bad points of the main financial documents may be a subject of long debates, but the fact remains that a three-year budget is a step in the right direction." (Liter.kz, May 30.)
The media are skeptical about the prospects of a union of Central Asian states. Russia and China will be against a decision to pool together the fuel resources of Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan, and the water and energy potential of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. "If Central Asia sets up an alliance similar to the European Union, they will have a common market with free movement of capital and manpower, and a unified political and economic strategy... Moscow and China obviously do not need this - it is easier to have bilateral talks with each side than to face an association expressing the interests of all Central Asian nations." (Gazeta.kz, May 30.)
UZBEKISTAN
Human rights activists believe that the Kremlin is getting economic preferences and more influence in the region in exchange for supporting President Islam Karimov and deporting Uzbek citizens. "It has become clear in the past two years that the Andijan events were a good excuse both for the Uzbek and Russian leaders to crack down on human rights and civil society - human rights champions, journalists and opposition leaders... The Uzbek National Security Service and the Russian FSB (Federal Security Service) have markedly stepped up cooperation, as a result of which refugees in Russia are living a life of extremes... Russia is openly encouraging Karimov's dictatorship. We do not know how many people were extradited under the cover of deportation and how many were abducted and secretly transported to Uzbekistan - to go to prison, be tortured and maybe killed." (Musulmansky Uzbekistan, June 2.)
KYRGYZSTAN
This week, the media highlighted former Prime Minister Felix Kulov's initiative to establish a confederation with Russia. Some publications have criticized these plans as a threat to national independence. "Kyrgyzstan may find itself part of Russia... The Kyrgyz state will cease to exist." (Bishkek Times, June 1.) "Is Felix Kulov taking his compatriots for stupid children who do not understand that confederation with Russia is bound to infringe on Kyrgyz sovereignty? He claims that Russia will not interfere in our home affairs. This is a lie because a confederation implies a single currency... Kyrgyzstan will have to adopt Russian standards in the economy, customs, politics and border policies... What will be left of our independence?" (Kyrgyz Rukhu, June 5.)
TURKMENISTAN
Many experts believe that although the Russian, Turkmen and Kazakh presidents have adopted a declaration on the construction of the Caspian gas pipeline, the decisive struggle for Turkmen gas is still ahead. "The White House continues to believe in the project of the underwater trans-Caspian gas pipeline and has urged Ashgabat to conduct talks on the delivery of gas from Central Asian deposits to the Western markets bypassing Russia...Moscow maintains there will not be enough Central Asian gas for other pipelines, but Ashgabat is not so resolute. Azerbaijan also favors the trans-Caspian project in the hope to diminish Gazprom's role in the market of gas supplies to Europe." (Dogry Yol, June 1.)
TAJIKISTAN
The press has discussed with interest Bishkek's statement about the need to return Russian border troops for the protection of Kyrgyz southern borders and a negative response to it by Nikolai Bordyuzha, head of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
"Wasn't the CSTO head too quick in making this statement? There are serious grounds to believe that Russian border troops would help in Kyrgyzstan. Competent sources maintain that this [border troop withdrawal] was done under pressure from the drug trafficking lobby - the Khorog-Osh highway is one of the major drug routes... Besides, Russia is not interested in continued pressure of the Tajik, Afghan and Chinese population on the southern frontiers of what we call Eurasian unity. Therefore, it would be better for Russian border troops to counter threats near Osh and Jalalabad than in the suburbs of Omsk or Orenburg." (Asia-Plus, May 30.)
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