What made him so optimistic was a resolute step by Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority leader. He disbanded the national unity government to form a new Cabinet, keeping out Hamas, or Islamic Resistance Movement.
Hamas has not to this day officially recognized Israel's right to exist. Now, Olmert is referring to a Palestinian government without Hamas as "a partner." He certainly means not just contacts but joint efforts for peaceful settlement and Palestinian statehood. However, he appears to be seeing the situation through rose-colored glasses. Can Israel and the whole world maintain contacts with the West Bank under Mahmoud Abbas, while ignoring the Gaza Strip? That is highly unlikely. The Palestinian problem cannot be settled piecemeal.
Georgy Mirsky, a prominent Russian expert on the Middle East, thinks Israel cannot afford to be tolerant as Hamas is creating in Gaza something like what Hezbollah made in the Lebanese south - a para-state within a state, though it is hardly possible to refer to Palestine as a state. At the same time, he does not think Israel can change the situation by force of arms even if it re-enters Gaza. So Israel is in a vicious circle.
Olmert hopes economic pressure on Hamas will do the trick. He promises improvements on the West Bank to make Palestinians see how much better life under Mahmoud Abbas can be than under radical Islamists in Gaza. In particular, he intends to transfer to Palestinian Authority accounts a part of Israeli-collected Palestinian fiscal revenues, which Israel froze after Hamas won in the January 2006 election. The United States and the European Union also refused to aid Palestine then. Now, they all intend to lift the sanctions.
Now, what can such aid do? Will it move the Gaza population to rise in arms against Hamas? That is hardly possible. Islamist radicals have too strong a hold on the area. After all, no one rose to overthrow them after more than a year of economic sanctions. Abbas may organize pre-term parliamentary elections. Is there a hope that Hamas will lose? None. Only a dialogue involving the entire Palestine can make an election possible at all, but Islamist radicals have not recognized the new Palestinian government, so there is little chance that they will put up with a parliamentary election in isolated Gaza. Worse than that, Hamas will surely thwart any peace agreements the Abbas government might make with Israel.
The Fatah-Hamas tug of war offers no prospects for a compromise - Gaza and the West Bank are too small to hold the two. Their confrontation is certain to end with a resolute victory by one of those leading Palestinian forces, another Russian expert, Valentin Yurchenko, says on the website of the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies.
A greater part of the world sides with Fatah. Iran alone strongly supports Hamas. The United States promises financial and technical support to security forces loyal to Abbas. But then, is a resolute victory possible in the Palestinian civil war? And if it is, will it be a lasting victory?
In his fight with Hamas, Abbas must be sure peaceful settlement will bring him concessions big enough to justify internecine strife in the Palestinian eyes. Olmert can hardly hope Abbas will be meeker than Islamists on territorial and refugee issues. The Palestinian leader cannot afford to be tractable, with a civil war on. So Olmert appears too optimistic - Israel will pay a dear price for Hamas routed in Gaza, even if it comes to that.
The Middle Eastern settlement co-sponsors - Russia, the United States, the European Union and the United Nations - support Abbas. They, nevertheless, insist on further work for a comprehensive, just and lasting peace to be reached at the negotiating table in compliance with relevant UN Security Council resolutions. Russia is especially emphatic on that point, and strongly demands a dialogue between Palestinian forces - unlike Israel and the U.S., who are overjoyed at the prospect of suppressing Hamas.
"It is essential to work for the unity of the Palestinian Authority, rather than to encourage a split," said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. "International assistance should be long-term. We must not lose sight of the ultimate objective - an all-round conflict settlement," he added.
Russian Foreign Ministry's statement of June 18 wholeheartedly supports Abbas. It, however, expresses hope for his new Cabinet to do everything necessary to normalize the situation, achieve social improvements in Palestine, and put an end to the confrontation - a goal that demands a broad-based dialogue between all Palestinian political forces, including Hamas.
The League of Arab States occupies a position close to Moscow's - but can we be sure that the resumed dialogue will be a success?
The world is in a dead end, just like Palestine, with losing prospects for civil warfare and no chance for a dialogue.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
