The Ukrainian West with its rather strong anti-Russian rhetoric wants to join NATO and the European Union (EU). The Russia-oriented East and South are interested in preserving the Russian language and culture in Ukraine. Needless to say, many in the East also want to see Ukraine integrated into European economic and other agencies, but they are emphatically against any border lines with Russia, especially military and political ones.
Today, these two forces are roughly equal. This stalemate has prevented Ukraine from making a final choice for a long time. The formation of a new parliament and government is not likely to alter much. Nothing has seriously changed since December 2004, when the revolution put Viktor Yushchenko's Orange team in power. In 2004, Yushchenko scored a very narrow victory over Yanukovich in the third round, whereas the last parliamentary elections were won by the Yanukovich-led Party of Regions.
In the fall of 2007, the overall victory of either side will be minimal. It may be enough for the winner to form a government but obviously inadequate for the conduct of an effective economic, military and political line. This means that in the foreseeable future, political life in Ukraine will be vulnerable to crises and upheavals.
This situation will persist until the public makes a clear choice or until Kiev decides that Ukraine is an artificial entity inhabited by two communities with two languages and cultures (like Canada or Belgium). Or take the third option - the victory of the aggressive West, which will try to subdue the East and South, impose the Ukrainian language and culture on them, unite the country and integrate it into NATO and other European agencies.
The alignment of forces in the new parliament still remains a question. At one time - after the previous elections - pro-Yushchenko's Our Ukraine and Yanukovich's Party of Regions could have formed a big coalition. The opponents even struck a deal to get rid of the third player - Yulia Tymoshenko, who claimed the prime minister's position. But they failed to unite into a coalition. As a result, Yushchenko's political status sustained a blow and the victory went to Yanukovich, who headed the government.
It is also important that Ukraine's West, Washington and Brussels realize that if the Orange coalition seized all branches of government, the split would become even worse, and the political forces would be further apart. This means that the Party of Regions and its allies would strengthen their pro-Russian positions and insist more loudly on the demand of Ukraine's federalization, con-federalization or even a split.
I'd like to repeat the most likely scenario for the forthcoming elections - in principle, the alignment of forces will not change. Nothing substantial has taken place of late. The only difference is that the Socialists, who took part in the previous coalition with the Party of Regions, are not likely to be elected to parliament.
Ukraine's EU entry was a subject of heated debates during and after the Orange Revolution. Now little depends on Ukraine in this respect. The EU that has emerged from the expansion crisis is not likely to accept such a big country as Ukraine. The West knows full well that the price of Ukraine's EU membership is too high.
NATO, where the Americans are drawing Ukraine, is a different story. Our Ukraine, Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and the Party of Regions are seriously divided on this issue. The former two are ready to join NATO tomorrow, while the latter demands a national referendum. But all of them, including the latter, are forgetting their own laws - the declaration of independence and the constitution clearly ascribe a non-aligned status to Ukraine. It appears that its constitution has to be changed for the NATO entry. Today, the public does not support the idea of joining NATO but much will depend on how the voters will be brainwashed.
Experience shows that few people in Ukraine care about law. Political expediency is all-important. A stronger party imposes its will. That was the case in 2004, when a third round of elections was held in defiance of all laws, and when the crowd was actually telling the leaders what to do. The situation today is pretty much the same - the parliament has been dissolved by the president's illegal decree. In any other country, this would have led to the impeachment but Yushchenko has kept his place and his opponents have agreed to early elections. Now an attack is in full swing against the Constitutional Court and the Central Election Commission. The Orange team follows a simple logic - it is legal to change everything that does not suit us.
Russia knows full well that Ukraine is the most important geopolitical factor for it in the post-Soviet space. In 2004, I was almost alone in supporting Yushchenko rather than Yanukovich. It has become obvious today that the latter's unreserved support will not help Russia to resolve a whole package of bilateral military-political and economic problems. In its current split condition Ukraine is unable to form a common economic space with Russia. It will continue maneuvering in Kuchma's style - concluding an agreement in the morning and denouncing it in the evening.
It is not in Russia's interests to return to the logic of 2004, that is, to promise Ukraine to sell gas at low prices and write off debts for its loyalty. It is clear that under the circumstances Yanukovich is simply unable to make a radical shift towards Moscow. Russia will suffer more economic losses if it supports him gratis. This is why it is not as active in these elections as it was in 2004.
However, to an extent, Moscow is definitely backing the Party of Regions - after all, Yanukovich came to the MAKS air show in Moscow, where he met with Vladimir Putin, ostensibly by accident.
Andranik Migranyan is a political scientist and professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
