Opening the session on September 17, IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei declared that his agency opposed the use of armed force against Iran and saw no immediate danger from that country.
ElBaradei's remarks were in stark contradiction to the position of French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, who had said the day before that "the world should be ready for war against Iran, which may be caused by the latter's nuclear ambitions."
Tehran's ambitions are embarrassingly thinly veiled. The leadership continues to insist that Iran is enriching uranium for civilian purposes. But what are these purposes? It is not clear when Iran will acquire the nuclear power stations that would consume domestically produced nuclear fuel. Besides, it is anybody's guess whether Iran will master commercial nuclear fuel production in the first place. Yet it still plans to enrich uranium. It is difficult to see the logic.
The more fiercely Iran's leaders deny any military ambitions, the more puzzled the rest of world becomes. Why would a peaceful nation want to enrich uranium in defiance of the entire international community? It is hard to believe that they don't understand such elementary reasoning.
The point is that Tehran has touched a nerve with the markedly anti-American sentiment that pervades public opinion across the Middle East. Obviously wishing to become the region's political leader, it has consciously chosen to foster an image of an independent minded "rebellious nation," which couldn't care less about American pressure or threats.
To this end adopting a "program for the commercial enrichment of uranium" at home carries far less risk than pursuing an aggressive foreign policy, or openly supporting die-hard extremists. All the more so since (on paper at least) it does not contravene international law. Moreover, the "nuclear plan" serves as a useful domestic tool, a rallying slogan to unite Iranian society, which is far more fractured and far less of a monolith, than is often thought.
Militarily, there are no targets for Iranian nuclear weapons. War-ravaged and unstable Iraq will not be Iran's regional foe for the foreseeable future, and there are no other adversaries. Using nuclear weapons against American military bases in the region or against Israel, which is protected by the U.S. nuclear umbrella and probably has its own nuclear arsenal as well, would be tantamount to national suicide. For all the bravado of their political statements, Iran's leaders are bound to understand this.
An anti-Russian nuclear venture would also be fatal. It would also be pointless. Russia does not threaten Iran in any way, and they do not, nor will have any serious clash of interest.
But what, then, motivates Tehran? A desire to have nuclear weapons "just in case"? The world will not allow this to happen, as Bernard Kouchner emphasized once again.
Alexander Koldobsky is a nuclear physicist.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
