ESTONIA
Some analysts believe that the government's decision on granting Nord Stream permission to do a study of the sea bed in Estonian economic zone will have to be motivated by foreign policy considerations rather than purely technical reasons.
"Trying to decide whether to allow the study or not, Estonia has found itself in a foreign policy deadlock. If Tallinn says 'no,' it will be easy for Moscow to prove that Estonia cannot be trusted as an EU member because it blocks the implementation of pan-European projects." (Postimees, September 12).
Other observers are emphasizing that the ruling parties' short-sighted policy as regards Russia is compelling the government to make a decision which is not in Estonia's interests.
"The public is obviously mistrustful of the Russian-German project on a gas pipeline in the Estonian waters, but the government seems to have reconciled itself to it.... The Reform Party, Fatherland Union and Res Publica have wrecked the signing of the Estonian-Russian border treaty; during the election campaign they fanned up trashy emotions surrounding the Bronze Soldier. Let these parties pay for what they have done. Allowing the gas pipeline's construction exclusively to thank Europe for supporting us during the April events is worse than buying Manhattan Island from the Indians for $24." (Postimees, September 13).
LATVIA
The press has focused on the Russian government's resignation and on the Russian president's decision to nominate the head of the country's financial regulator, Viktor Zubkov, for the post of the prime minister.
"The fact that Zubkov has long been close to Putin does not mean that his nomination to the prime minister's position will automatically result in his appointment as head of state.... It is possible that the nomination of a tried-and-tested manager as prime minister is merely another cover-up." (Biznes & Baltiya, September 13).
"Ivanov and Medvedev are certainly members of Putin's team but both have one drawback. There is no guarantee that having taken up the presidential chair with Putin's blessing, the successor will not decide to be a real president instead of guarding the chair till Putin's comeback." (Diena, September 14).
LITHUANIA
Experts believe that having nominated Zubkov as prime minister, Putin makes clear his intention to keep the power after leaving office.
"The power structure is being built for Russia's current rather than future president. Viktor Zubkov's nomination is merely a logical link in a chain of changes that could bring Putin to power right after the new president's election. The beauty of the game is that it allows Vladimir Putin to occupy the main seat for at least 10 years in an elegant way - without domestic political pressure, amendments to the Russian Constitution or formation of a mythical union state." (Vilnyussky Forum, September 14).
BELARUS
The press is emphasizing the Russian public's lack of reaction to the resignation of the Mikhail Fradkov government.
"The Russian people have not reacted in any way to this hole-and-corner dogfight.... Judging by the prevailing attitudes, the Russians will vote for anyone Putin points at." (Telegraf, September 14).
The intention of the chairman of the Congress of Russian Communities, Dmitry Rogozin, to move to Minsk and register his party in Belarus (in Moscow he has been denied registration twice) has evoked a broad response in the press.
"Giving the Russian opposition an opportunity to speak out is sooner a service which he [Lukashenko] is rendering to Putin.... It goes without saying that at the same time, certain pressure is being exerted on Putin, but he won't even feel it because he has not decided on his successor and has no time to bother about Lukashenko." (Nashe Mneniye, September 17).
UKRAINE
Some media are blaming Kiev for the actual freezing of relations with Russia. "Having openly accused the Kremlin of poisoning him, the Ukrainian president has made his choice.... During his entire stay in office, President Viktor Yushchenko has not managed or tried to find a line of conduct towards Vladimir Putin." (Russian-Ukrainian review Gulyai-Pole, September 13).
The press maintains that the stereotypes and myths haunting the political elites of Russia and Ukraine are the main reason for the chilly relations between the two next-door neighbors.
"The prevailing Ukrainian view on the events in Russia is that authoritarian attitudes are growing in parallel with all kinds of Russian encroachments on Ukraine as the political successor of the Soviet Union's totalitarian empire. The prevailing view in Russia on events in Ukraine is a reign of chaos." (Glavred, September 17).
GEORGIA
The media believe that Russia is in for a "shadow" era - all key positions in power without exception will be occupied by people from security-related services, while Putin will be running the country as before, but behind the scenes.
"Today, Russia will launch a tough policy. Zubkov's record leaves no doubt about that. Most people probably think that Russia is run by policymakers, but this has never been the case. It has always been administered by the people in the shadow, who have been acting secretly. Naturally enough, this is a method of security-related services.... Tentatively, Zubkov will soon be proclaimed Putin's successor and the forthcoming presidential elections in Russia will follow the same Yeltsin-Putin pattern. But there will be a difference. In the former case, Putin himself ruled Russia, whereas Zubkov will be a nominal president while Putin will be the real one, albeit shadow. During Zubkov's presidency, Russia's policy will become unpredictable and the rest of the world will be nostalgic for Putin's era. The conditions will be created for his return to the president's throne. Everything will be done to make believe that Putin has nothing to do with these events." (Georgian Times, September 13).
The majority of observers believe that the advent of the new prime minister in Russia will not change anything in its relations with Georgia.
"The geopolitical and strategic interests of Georgia and Russia are so different that it does not matter who is in Russia's government." (Sakartvelos Respublica, September 13).
AZERBAIJAN
The media maintain that Russia is blocking alternative projects for transporting natural gas from the Caspian region to Europe.
"The leaders of the European countries have to consider the opinion of Russia, which controls a quarter of natural gas supplies to Europe. However, we should give credit to the European Union countries, which have been trying to reduce their energy dependence on Russia as much as they can. But the consumers will receive the first gas from the Nabucco gas pipeline only in 2012. Russia is already building an alternative gas pipeline to southern Europe - the South Stream. Moscow will try to put it into operation earlier than 2012. It is not worried about Nabucco's export gas supplies and it is clear why - nobody knows where the gas for Nabucco will come from." (Zerkalo, September 18).
KAZAKHSTAN
The media are questioning the expediency of Baikonur's use by Kazakhstan, which is not a space power. They insist that the threat posed by the space center to the health and life of the local people requires a referendum on shutting it down or raising the rent for its use by Russia.
"There is no doubt that Baikonur is a unique research center. It is an asset not only of our country but of the whole of mankind. But wasn't the Semipalatinsk nuclear testing ground also a research center with a world status? Yet, it was closed down by the will of the people.... We simply think that it is not worth selling our health and sometimes even lives for cheap." (Delovaya Nedelya, September 14).
The press is concerned that growing bread prices may trigger a political crisis in Central Asia. Analysts believe that Russia may help stabilize the political situation but suspect that such assistance will consolidate Moscow's positions in these countries.
"Shortage of domestic grain and skyrocketing prices on wheat and flour exports from Kazakhstan and Russia may lead to political destabilization in a number of Central Asian republics. Only yesterday Kazakhstan gave discounts to its next-door neighbors but now it intends to sell grain at world prices." (Zhas Alash, September 13).
KYRGYZSTAN
Some political scientists believe that membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) does not give any political or economic dividends to the republic. To the contrary, in the SCO framework Moscow virtually has control over its foreign policy.
"The SCO is a PR stunt.... In its current shape, the SCO is not a very happy marriage.... It does not give Kyrgyzstan anything. Russia needs the SCO to keep such small countries as Kyrgyzstan under its control. But what do we represent as an economic unit for Russia? We are equal to one third of the Chelyabinsk Region. Kyrgyzstan is of no value for the SCO leaders." (Obshchestvenny Reiting, September 13).
TURKMENISTAN
Analysts are focusing on the positive attitude of the Turkmen and Kazakh leaders to the trans-Caspian gas pipeline and other alternatives to the Russian Caspian gas main.
"This project [trans-Caspian gas pipeline], which is being actively promoted by the United States, is a serious alternative to the Russian Caspian gas pipeline project.... Four months ago, the press services of the participating countries boasted that intergovernmental agreements on the Caspian gas pipeline will be ready by the start of September. But the main documents are still in the process of registration.... The construction is probably being delayed by the preparation of the trans-Caspian project's feasibility report, for which the United States has earmarked $1.7 million. It is an open secret that Gazprom firmly controls the gas markets of both countries, thereby depriving them of an opportunity to sell their own hydrocarbons at world prices." (Gundogar, September 14).
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