At the same time, they plan to deploy a 26,000-strong joint peacekeeping force in Darfur. Will it improve the situation?
It takes time to evaluate the results of any operation. However, the prospects for this project are dubious at best. The force will mostly consist of poorly trained African troops. A rebel attack on a peacekeeping base in late September vividly illustrated their vulnerability - ten African servicemen were killed.
Further international pressure on Khartoum would also be counterproductive. It would only give the rebels an incentive to increase their demands, which would in turn provoke the government to greater acts of suppression. It might appear that the situation could not get any worse, but applying such tactics without heed to the nation's particular political, historic, ethnic and religious features will only exacerbate the conflict and lead to more deaths.
The conflict which broke out between the central government and rebels groups in Darfur in 2003 has still not abated. It has spread in both scale and intensity. Efforts to stop the violence, which mostly affects civilians, have so far proved useless; the number of victims and refugees continues to grow. The UN estimates that about 200,000 people have died and more than 2.5 million have fled their homes. The humanitarian disaster is compounded by the perpetual threat of famine, lack of proper medical care and an acute shortage of water.
The West has launched a propaganda campaign around the events in Darfur. The Sudanese authorities and their proteges - the paramilitary Arab Janjaweed militia - are almost universally condemned for committing atrocities. No doubt, both the government and the Janjaweed are largely to blame for the bloodshed and violence in the region. But this is just one side of the story. The rebels have also been cruel and violent, and have mistreated civilians. All participants in the conflict are fully responsible for what is going on in Darfur.
The fragmentation of the rebels contributes to the mess. There are many different movements and groups (12 large groups alone), which are often not so much fighting against the government as competing against each other for power and control over specific regions. In addition, numerous criminal gangs practice robbery and violence on a large scale.
At an AU conference held in Arusha, Tanzania, in early August, the leaders of eight rebel groups agreed on a common delegation and harmonized their positions for the forthcoming talks with the Sudanese government. But a number of groups refused to take part in this meeting and continue to act however they see fit. Moreover, the Khartoum authorities have been suspicious and unenthusiastic about provisions of the Arusha document. All this seriously complicates the task awaiting the diplomats in Tripoli.
Valentin Yurchenko is an expert with the Institute of the Middle East.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
