President Ahmadinejad's awkward attempts to explain that his visit had lasted even longer than planned only aroused more suspicions. The hasty statement that his 22-hour visit would last 110 minutes longer due to a change in the agenda did not sound convincing, and actually caused more doubt. The time of his planned or actual departure is open information.
Iran is clearly on the verge of change. The ill health of the de facto leader of the nation is only one reason; the escalation of the power struggle is another more important one. Several hopefuls are vying for spiritual leadership, while different political elites are campaigning for control of the country's domestic and foreign policies, which depends on how close they are to the country's leaders.
The de facto head of state Ali Khamenei (in Iran, the president stands one rank below the spiritual leader and slightly above the prime minister) has largely withdrawn from active political life lately for health reasons, having practically entrusted the so-called neo-conservatives with running the country.
Neo-conservatism is a phenomenon characteristic of modern Iran. It is inevitable in the country because the standards forced upon Iran by its spiritual leader and "leader of Islamic revolution," Ayatollah Khomeini, have proved predictably unviable. They are failing in all spheres, including in politics, the economy, social issues, and moral and spiritual values. The neo-conservatives, also described as "the second wave of Islamic revolutionaries," are making efforts to re-establish those standards.
Iran's biggest problems today are inflation and unemployment, as well as the growing crisis in the oil and gas sectors, which can ruin the national economy. The neo-conservatives have nothing else to offer except populist slogans to consolidate the nation. The current political situation in the country suggests an inevitable conflict between its political elites, as Khamenei has not entirely handed over power to the ultra-radical neo-conservatives.
One of Iran's moderate conservative leaders and Ayatollah Khomeini's most trusted confidant Ali Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani has reappeared on the political stage after his bitter defeat in the 2005 presidential elections, when he ran for a third term. He has returned triumphant after winning the post of chairman of the Assembly of Experts of Iran, in a decisive victory over his main political opponent, Ahmadinejad.
Within Iran's ruling hierarchy, the Assembly of Experts has power to control the spiritual leader's activity and appoint a successor in case of the latter's death. It is also authorized, in an emergency, to remove or replace a current leader. The assembly members are elected for eight years by a general vote. It is obvious that moderate conservative Rafsanjani in this position is a major political threat to Ahmadinejad and his political coalition.
Before taking office as chairman of the Assembly of Experts, already aware of his sweeping victory, Rafsanjani said the nuclear program had to remain a "national priority" (a quote from Ahmadinejad), without causing a "national catastrophe." It certainly was a challenge targeted at Ahmadinejad and his nuclear policy.
Just like the reform-oriented government led by former President Mohammad Khatami, Rafsanjani supports a more flexible approach in the talks with the IAEA and Iran Six. In addition, he has written in his memoirs that Imam Khomeini sought to drop "Death to America" chant, the underlying slogan of the revolutionary ideology.
Immediate dramatic changes in Iran's foreign policy are unlikely. Tehran will certainly retain its anti-Israeli rhetoric and its supportive contact with the Hamas party. Still, the conflict between neo-conservatives and moderate conservatives allied with pro-reform forces will sooner or later lead to a redistribution of power. Therefore, it is easy to understand the current president's willingness to take off and fly home once summoned to the spiritual leader's sickbed.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
