Musharraf was completely honest in his address to the nation when he said, "a threat to democracy will grow unless immediate preventive measures are taken." His rationale is clear and solid: the system of government is paralyzed by legal conflicts and rising Islamic militant violence. The situation is aggravated by the government forces' recent losses in skirmishes with the militants.
Every word he said was certainly true. First of all, the Supreme Court was delaying its decision on whether to overturn his October 6 election win, after initiating the proceedings. The Court is trying to establish whether Musharraf's re-election was legitimate, since he combines his presidency with the post of the Chief of Army Staff (the supreme commander in fact). This is simply case-based reasoning. According to the country's constitution, Musharraf's term as Chief of Army Staff expires on November 15, as well as that of both houses of parliament and national assemblies in the provinces. The Supreme Court rescheduled the hearing for November 12. The judges will hardly be able to make a decision in three days.
As for the second important issue, the rising Islamic influence in the country, one should recall the July 2007 assault on Islamabad's Red Mosque. The events show that the country's alliance of extremist Islamic groups lobbying for Shariah law has greatly reinforced its positions.
Separatist moods are growing in the traditionally unquiet regions along the border with Afghanistan and South Wasiristan. The Pakistani government's showdown there involved 2,500 troops, helicopters and vehicles.
Radical Islamic groups pose an obvious threat. Terrorist attacks have killed over 800 people in the past few months alone. What should the president, the guarantor of the nation's security and its secular foundation, do?
The international community is largely satisfied with President Musharraf's secular regime, mostly because it prevents Islamic extremists and consequently international terrorists from getting a hold of nuclear weapons. This is what all experts say whenever the faintest hint of destabilization in Pakistan is mentioned.
Finally, Musharraf's power partly guarantees a relative stability in the region, something that a lot of countries are interested in, including India, China, Afghanistan, Iran, the Central Asian states and Russia.
But will he be able to retain power? Much will depend on Washington's position. It could allow the former prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, who leads the most influential Pakistan People's Party, to join forces with military elites against Musharraf and force him to resign. This scenario is improbable, however. History shows that there is no force like the army capable of stabilizing the country and safeguarding Pakistan's statehood.
Pervez Musharraf wasn't playing with the truth when he said that an emergency situation was necessary for Pakistan's sovereignty. If the current president is replaced (through pressure of Islamic or other opposition forces) with a civilian head of state, the situation will inevitably develop into another military coup - again in the interests of Pakistan.
So, is there any sense swapping a president-cum-general for a general-cum-president?
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
