Ian Bremmer, the leading American expert on CIS affairs, the President of influential Eurasia Group consulting firm speaks on his attitude to ongoing crisis in Georgia in an interview to RIA Novosti New York Bureau Chief Dmitry Gornostaev.
According to Mr.Bremmer, one should expect to see a higher degree of American criticism for obvious democratic shortcomings in Georgia. He also believes, that Washington will focus on persuading President Saakashvili to lift the state of emergency declared by him earlier this week.
- Mr.Bremmer, what is your attitude towards the motions taken by the President Mikhail Saakashvili at one end, and the opposition at another end, including shutting the TV news coverage, declaring the state of emergency and violent clashes between the police and the protesters?
- The government's extreme reaction to the protests has strengthened the opposition's anti-government drive and made it more difficult for Georgia's western allies to stand by the government. While the democratically-elected Georgian government remains the legitimate authority, support for Saakashvili has undoubtedly deteriorated both domestically and internationally.
- What is the difference between the perception in the US of the anti-Saakashvili demonstrations which are taking place now, and the street protests that led Saakashvili to power four years ago?
- I think it's safe to say that the two are connected only so far as the recent protests were the largest anti-government protests since the Rose Revolution and the fact that the opposition timed the protests to coincide with the 4th anniversary of the revolution. The US, although obviously frustrated with recent events in Georgia and the government's moves, still strongly supports the Georgian government and Saakashvili.
- How would you comment on Mr.Saakashvili's saying that it's Russia that was fomenting the crisis in Georgia including the street protests of the opposition?
- Saakashvili's ongoing allegations that Russia is fomenting civil unrest
will exacerbate existing tensions with Moscow and with the
separatists. Meanwhile, the Russian embargo on Georgian imports continues to hurt
the economy and prospects for long-term economic growth will not
improve without a resumption in trade with what was once Georgia's largest
trading partner.
The government's efforts to discredit the opposition by accusing it of being aligned with Russia and subsequent moves to continue this line of reasoning, which includes recalling the Georgian ambassador to Moscow and expelling Russian embassy officials from Tbilisi, are unlikely to make any headway. In fact, the opposition parties have already launched a diplomatic offensive in the West, proclaiming in a joint manifesto that their political goals include improving relations with the EU and joining NATO. The opposition leaders have been just as anti-Russia in their stated foreign policy goals as Saakashvili himself. Moreover, the opposition is bankrolled by the wealthy oligarch Badri Patarkatsishvili, a close friend of outspoken anti-Kremlin dissident Boris Berezovsky.
- Could you forecast the steps that the US Administration might undertake towards the crisis parties in Georgia or toward Russia in the situation?
- The US supports the move to hold early presidential elections which has
diffused the political crisis and will keep Tbilisi relatively calm. The US will focus now on getting Saakashvili to lift the state of emergency. After the recent series of events, the US will be much more closely monitoring events on the ground and we should expect to see a higher degree of criticism for obvious democratic shortcomings than we have in the past.
- Will this crisis affect in any way the relations between the US and Georgia?
- Georgia remains a very important US ally and relaitons will not be harmed in the long run. The sequence of events between Georgia and Russia with Georgia recalling its ambassador to Moscow and expelling Russian embassy officials, following my similar moves from Russia risks worsening already poor relations with Russia.
New York
