MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov)
The latest report from Mohamed ElBaradei, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), on Iran's nuclear program may finally destroy consensus amongst the Iranian Six (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany), and lead to unilateral sanctions against Iran.
The report's findings are far from conclusive, and can in no way assuage concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions, as the Security Council's most recent resolution requires. In the IAEA's opinion, there are eight "white spots", or dubious points, in Iran's nuclear program, all of which are supposed to be resolved in the spring-summer of 2008.
Tehran and the IAEA were meant to resolve one of the most contentious issues - Iran's acquisition of uranium-enrichment centrifuges - during the round of the talks preceding the report's publication. The issue of centrifuges is a key part of the Iranian nuclear problem and much, if not everything, depends on it. Nevertheless, despite optimistic statements by both IAEA and Tehran officials, the desired standard phrase, "This issue is therefore considered resolved", has not made it into the final version of ElBaradei's report. As such, the issue remains open.
Heavy water production is another outstanding problem. Any nuclear power plants that Iran intends to build will only have light-water reactors. Despite this, the report mentions the continued use of a heavy water facility, which the IAEA inspectors cannot monitor because it is not included in the list of facilities covered by inspections as Iran has not ratified or fulfilled the relevant additional protocol to the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty. Nor is it likely that it ever will.
Finally, and most significantly, Iran has refused to comply with the Security Council's main demand - that it halt its uranium-enrichment program. This alone is enough for Washington, London and Paris to urge tougher sanctions. Germany is bound to back them.
On one occasion, Britain and France (prompted or backed by the United States) suggested adopting unilateral European sanctions against Iran without waiting for the next resolution from the Security Council. This was only averted when Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, told his French counterpart Bernard Kouchner of his deep concerns about violating the principle of consensus in resolving the Iranian issue. China, as is customary, backed Russia.
But this time, there will be no last minute rescue. The IAEA writes in its report that it is not yet "in a position to conclude that there are no undeclared nuclear materials or activities in Iran." This ambiguous statement may be the final straw. While Russia and China are inclined to view this finding in a positive light and insist on further persuasion of Iran without resorting to sanctions, the Europeans and the Americans are emphatically pessimistic - they see it as a sure sign of Iran's intention to build nuclear weapons, and are urging immediate sanctions to prevent this.
The two sides are unlikely to reach compromise before the UN Security Council next meets to discuss the Iranian problem.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
