ESTONIA
The media discuss the December 2 parliamentary election in Russia, focusing not so much on its results as on the Western reaction to the strengthening of authoritarian trends in Russia.
"The State Duma elections became a farce long before they were held, and their results, unlike the results of other elections, do not matter. It would be naive to think that the West can change anything in Russia. But undemocratic elections, infringements on the opposition, and growing chauvinism should convince the West to revise its view of Russia. Authoritarian regimes, be it in Pakistan, Zimbabwe, Libya or Russia, are all the same." (Postimees, December 3)
LATVIA
Analysts write about the declining popularity of President Vladimir Putin, as exemplified by the fact that fewer people voted for the United Russia party, whose election list Putin led, than for Putin in the last presidential election.
"Putin, the 'victory banner' of United Russia, has found himself in a complicated position. He has ensured a constitutional majority for the party, which can now completely ignore the other parties that have won seats in parliament. This is a success. But the outcome of 'the referendum in support of Putin' is quite another matter. A total of 42 million voted for the United Russia list headed by Putin, who got 49 million votes during the 2004 presidential election. These are two different elections, but still, a difference of 7 million votes cannot be disregarded." (Diena, December 4)
LITHUANIA
Observers explain the high election turnout of Russians living in Lithuania, who mainly voted for United Russia, by their dependence on the Moscow-based media, which have done their best to distort the picture.
"The propaganda of the Kremlin-governed TV channels also reached the Russians who live outside Russia. This newspaper has asked Russians living in Lithuania for whom they voted. For Putin, all of them replied." (Respublika, December 3)
Experts write that the election outcome is logical and are skeptical about the future of Russian-Lithuanian relations.
"Lithuanian politicians are not surprised at the results of the elections in Russia, which do not promise a thaw in bilateral relations. Political analysts openly say that we must prepare for possible challenges from the neighboring country." (Lietuvos Zinios, December 4)
"Russia will not change its domestic or foreign policy. Putin is guaranteeing the stability and continuity of the current policy. In fact, the old regime has been restored in Russia." (Delfi, December 3)
BELARUS
The opposition media ironically describe the idea of building a nuclear power plant in Belarus as political and economic speculation on the part of President Alexander Lukashenko, who wants to keep hold of power in the republic and restore friendly relations with the Kremlin.
"The current authorities, which used the Union State project to fill their pockets, need a new long-term project that would be attractive to foreign investors. Russians and Ukrainians are sure to like it, and then some Europeans, say, Swedes or French may join in later, and they will drag out the project until 2020. And everybody knows that it is unwise to change horses midway." (Nashe Mneniye, November 30)
Analysts have a negative view of Russian-Belarusian relations.
"The powers-that-be in Russia cannot agree with others and do not see national interests because they are busy stuffing their pockets. Ukraine and Belarus do not matter to them; they see only the 'key issues,' and everything else is only the spice in the soup. Their anti-Western sentiments make sense, because they cannot steal as much in projects with the West as they do in projects with Iran or China. The East will be their friend until they have divided everything, after which they will turn to face the West. But then other people will come to power, and will turn the country towards the East again, and so it will continue ad nauseam." (Nashe Mneniye, November 30)
UKRAINE
According to the local media, the December 2 parliamentary election in Russia legitimized Putin's development policy. Observers point to the undemocratic nature of the election, saying that the monopoly on power won by the pro-Kremlin United Russia party will not only guarantee Putin's policy, but was also a move in a complicated combination designed to ensure the incumbent president's continued leadership role after his term ends in March 2008.
"Facts of unprecedented pressure on the voters became public knowledge even before the election. But the election itself passed off without a hitch, as if Russians were driven by an acute bout of social awareness. Now they will figure out a way to let Putin continue running the country." (Gazeta Po-Kievski, December 4)
Analysts admit the hopelessness of Ukraine's attempts to blackmail Russia over gas prices.
"Russia can pour a bucket of cold water on Ukrainian officials. If you insist on higher gas transit rates across Ukraine, we will raise prices for the transit of Turkmen gas across Russia [to Ukraine] by the same amount, Gazprom would say." (From-ua, December 4)
MOLDOVA
Experts claim that the Russian leadership used undemocratic methods in its scramble for power. The "Putin model" was devised by the Russian president's [former] colleagues in the corridors of the Federal Security Service. Its idea is a sole "nationwide" party with several minor "satellites" that are to imitate "parliamentary political pluralism." The "Putin model" means that there is not a single independent or public TV channel. (Timpul de diminatse, November 4)
ARMENIA
Observers say it is practically impossible to predict who will be the next Russian president. "The Putin list may not include the potential candidates (Prime Minister Zubkov and First Deputy Prime Ministers Medvedev and Ivanov). Here, the Russian president is like a juggler always hiding a trump card in his hat and pulling it out in the most unexpected moment." (Azg, December 4)
Observers interpret the series of anti-Russian attacks by official Baku as an attempt to accuse Moscow of conspiracy against Azerbaijan in the Nagorny Karabakh issue. Against this backdrop, the Azerbaijani leadership's attempts to negotiate easy-term supplies of Russian weapons seem illogical. "It is strange that, while alluding to the 100% possibility of war, [Azerbaijan's defense minister] Abiyev is begging, cap in hand, for Russian weapons knowing quite well that Moscow has no intention of making concessions to any GUAM members, or to any other country which is not party to the Collective Security Treaty Organization. (Novoye vremya, November 29)
GEORGIA
According to the media, it is important for the Kremlin to remain the only supplier of energy resources to the West. This is why it is seeking to tighten control over the post-Soviet space and prevent the integration of its neighbors into Euro-Atlantic organizations.
"It is clear that the restoration of the former Soviet empire is impossible but Putin deems it possible to restore a sort of hegemony in order to control the CIS countries. For example, with friendlier Georgian leadership, Russia will tangibly strengthen its positions in the Southern Caucasus and Central Asia. This, in turn, implies the protection of its own transit monopoly for fuel supplies to the West. Simply put, the Kremlin will do its best to prevent the integration of its neighbors [the former Soviet republics] into European and Euro-Atlantic organizations. (24 Saati, November 29)
AZERBAIJAN
The way the Kremlin treats the political opposition in Russia is reminiscent of the Soviet times. Experts say the process of restoring the USSR is underway in Russia. "The television, which is completely under the control of the authorities, has been slinging mud at the members of the opposition rally. And the broadcasts had a strong sense of deja vu, bringing back memories of Soviet broadcasts about "the intrigues of the Western agents in the USSR."...The Soviet past is being glorified, and a campaign has been launched to change the image of the KGB and the Soviet secret services. Russia is the only country in the world today that is so touchy about the criticism of the Soviet Union." (Day.Az., December 1)
Opposition experts note that Baku stands to gain more from military cooperation with NATO than with Moscow. "Baku has again chosen to try the policy of balancing between the West and its northern neighbour... The only guarantor of the country's security is an alliance with the NATO countries and the deployment of its troops in Azerbaijan...Russia is an ally of Armenia and has always taken into account Armenia's interests in Southern Caucasus...The question suggests itself: "Is it not high time for Azerbaijan to choose whether it should be with NATO or remain on the side of its enemy?" (Zerkalo, November 29)
KAZAKHSTAN
Experts are surprised at the stability of the KPRF's approval rating. "Oddly enough, the Communists have stood their ground. After its 2003 debacle many predicted its early political demise... In the previous election the Communists got 12% of the votes, with the turnout at 50%; today it is 11.7% with a turnout of 60%. Which means it has retained and even strengthened its positions." (Liter.kz, December 4)
Many analysts stress that the Russian President's cooperation with the United Russia party may do him much harm. "The behaviour of the Russian president, whose approval rating and popularity are the highest since the early days of the Brezhnev rule, is puzzling. United Russia may be the party of power, but its pious and condescending attitude grates on many Russians... The Russian President is in danger of overplaying his hand by abusing the people's support." (Liter.kz, December 1)
KYRGHYZSTAN
As the parliamentary campaign in Kyrgyzstan is drawing to a close the media have been paying particular attention to the Russian Duma elections. Experts point out that the outcome of the December 16 elections is far more difficult to predict than in Russia and that Kyrgyzstan is unlikely to take a leaf from Russia's book. "Vladimir Putin has managed to do a great deal for the people and to win popular support. He can afford to take unpopular measures and the people will tolerate them because they believe that their leader is acting in the interests of ordinary people... Here in Kyrgyzstan people have grown disenchanted with the authorities and do not trust them. The wish ... to form a "pocket" parliament spells big problems for the country and will mark a step towards a political debacle for the president." (Apta, November 29)
President Bakiyev's supporters, on the contrary, think the Russian experience of party building is an example worth emulating. "Are things bad in Russia?... Russia is set to become one of the top five countries in the world. Under Putin, Russia has scored major successes in the economy and in the social sphere. And yet until recently Russia was not even recognized as a 'medium' country." (Apta, November 30)
TURKMENISTAN
Many experts are sure that Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov has achieved a revision of the agreements with Gazprom on the price of Turkmen gas due to what they describe as the "chimera" of the Transcaspian Gas Pipeline, which is definitely a bad deal for Russia. "The reason why Gazprom promptly agreed to a 40% hike in the price of Turkmen gas turned out to be extremely simple... Last Friday Berdymukhamedov threatened Viktor Zubkov and Alexei Miller that Turkmenistan would officially agree to the building of the Transcaspian gas pipeline and guarantee its full loading as early as 2010...The favorite technique of Saparmurat Niyazov, who, in the absence of export alternatives managed to practically treble the gas price in three years, is going strong under the new president as well." (Gundogar, November 30)
"If such an old energy hand as Samuel W. Bodman [U.S. Energy Secretary] says there are still some ambiguities after his talks with Berdymukhamedov, it indicates only one thing: Turkmenistan will continue to try to keep the Europeans and all the rest on a 'gas hook'." (Gundogar, November 31)
TAJIKISTAN
Analysts do not rule out the restoration of the monarchy in Russia. "The Russian media has been debating the issue of enthroning a 'tsar' or awarding the head of state the title of 'national leader'... The latest amendment to the Russian electoral legislation allows Mr Putin to seek another presidential term... Even if there is such a loophole in the law, it would be politically unseemly for Putin to use it."(Nadzhot, November 29)
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