MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti commentator Tatyana Sinitsyna)
The 13th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which took place in Bali, did not produce any sensations.
One of its aims was to agree on a roadmap that would outline a course of action to reduce emissions in the post-Kyoto period - after 2021. But the meeting did not produce a clear-cut answer to this question.
"This fact does not inspire optimism, but at the same time it would be naive to expect a serious result from an international meeting which has set itself the aim of making a breakthrough in the talks on such a serious problem. Time has to pass for the participants to gain some experience in this universal endeavor," said Viktor Danilov-Danilyan, a scientist who made a substantial contribution to the Kyoto Protocol.
Opening the meeting Indonesian Minister of Environment and the conference's president Rachmat Witoelar said that the conference in Bali did not plan to produce a universal agreement on action to combat the climate change. He emphasized that much still remained to be done and the final date of the adoption of the new protocol would be fixed when the Kyoto Protocol expired.
Indeed, the Bali Conference was just a start, but a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. The first steps in the right direction have been made. The participants in the meeting have outlined a number of spheres to be covered by the new agreement. It will envisage actions to reduce hothouse emissions, in particular those resulting from forest destruction, transfer of technologies and financing. They also discussed adaptation to the climate change, procedures for the transfer of technologies, and questions linked with the international hydrocarbon market set up by the Kyoto Protocol.
Participating states find it difficult to agree on obligations to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Developing nations are demanding privileges and blaming industrialized states for the anthropogenic impact on the atmosphere. It is essential to create a number of instruments that would effectively reduce emissions without stopping economic development.
Russia has a special place in the Kyoto Protocol. Having a big reserve of quotas for anthropogenic emissions (because of a sharp drop in production during the 1990s), it is not concerned with the quotas so far. But this situation is changing - economic recession is giving way to an upsurge. Russia should think how it can contribute to the protection of the atmosphere. Should it give up coal mines? But how can it resolve the enormous economic and social problems related to miners? Is it ready to live without coal?
Russia's only hope is its nuclear power assets - oil is not boundless; hydro resources have been practically exhausted; the wind and tide potentials are not great; and solar energy projects require time and huge investment. The new post-Kyoto document will require thorough thinking, serious scientific substantiation and balanced decisions.
The United Nations wants to make sure that the Kyoto Protocol continues to be effective in 2008. When it expires in 2012, the UN would like it to be replaced with a more streamlined, scientifically substantiated and universally acceptable document. This goal cannot be reached in a fortnight, particularly considering the ambitions and national interests of about 200 participants. It is clear that there will be no easy solution, no consensus for all. It took nine years to produce the Kyoto Protocol and it is still being criticized for imperfections.
The Bali conference has done much in this direction by giving the envoys of different countries an opportunity to exchange opinions and get an idea about the positions of other states. It has launched the negotiating process, which will eventually lead to the final goal - the participating states will have to define target numbers and types of legal documents required for a new international agreement.
To support the ideas of the Bali conference, Germany switched off electricity for five minutes as an energy-saving measure. The Germans were supported by many cities in Europe and some in Russia. But this is emotional solidarity. Adopting a universal formula for reducing industrial emissions is a task of different dimensions. It will require more than one meeting for the humankind to agree on what it should do to protect the global climate.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
