The opposition does not recognize these official statistics and demands a recount of the vote; it is talking about numerous violations and forgeries and the use of the administrative resources. Saakashvili's foes are going to seek justice with acts of discontent - they have announced the beginning of a hunger strike and are planning new rallies under the slogan "Georgia without Saakashvili!" But even if these street methods do not work, the opposition still has its last chance to remove the head of state from office officially.
The point is that apart from the presidential elections, the voting concerned two other issues - Georgia's NATO entry and the date of the parliamentary elections. It is the latter issue that has caused a political crisis, which started in the fall and ended with the early presidential elections. Saakashvili was going to conduct parliamentary elections in the fall of 2008-winter of 2009, ostensibly to "save budget money." The opposition insisted on the observance of the constitutional norms and the holding of elections in the spring of 2008. People went into the streets with this slogan in November and were dispersed with teargas, clubs and rubber bullets.
Although the results of the voting on the dates of the parliamentary elections have not yet been announced, even official polls by pro-government TV companies show that the elections will be held in the spring. The opposition is hoping to win them and conduct a constitutional reform through the legislative body to substantially reduce presidential powers and turn Georgia into a parliamentary republic. Whether Saakashvili will allow this to happen is another matter. If he forged the results of the presidential elections (nobody doubts this except for OSCE observers), why can't he do it again in the parliamentary elections?
"Roundabout" is the term coined by journalists to describe the main method of falsifying the January 5 elections. People were put into buses and taken to polling stations so that they could vote several times "the right way." Opportunities were plentiful. Georgia still does not have more or less precise lists of voters - about 3.4 million are registered but the real number is almost half that.
At one of the central polling stations in Tbilisi, I saw how it was possible to theoretically forge the results. The lists contained about 1,200 voters, but anyone could come up and vote. It was enough to declare your wish to vote and your name would be added to the list and you'd receive a special red voting envelope. This red envelope (Saakashvili's number 5 election symbols are also red) was put into a common ballot box. At the polling station where I watched Georgians expressing their "free will," almost half of all the envelopes were red. Where is the guarantee that having cast a ballot, a voter will not go to another polling station - just a special mark on the hand?
Red color dominates Tbilisi this winter. In the streets, Saakashvili's supporters receive red hats and scarves with the number five (which is quite useful, considering the frosts and snow in Tbilisi this winter). There are posters with the leader of the Rose Revolution at every step - Saakashvili with children, Saakashvili with senior citizens. Buses also display his portraits. "I put my car into the garage yesterday and in the morning I saw this poster stuck to the windscreen saying to vote for Number Five," a taxi driver complained. "But what can I do? I can't take it away or they may fire me. So, now I'm compelled to promote Misha [a diminutive for Mikhail]. May the plague take him!"
It is hard to find a man, who would vote for the former (and apparently the future) president in Tbilisi. Everyone has grievances against the leader of the nation. Some had their relatives put behind bars (when Saakashvili came to power, there were 5,000 prisoners, now there are more than 20,000). Some lost their jobs - unemployment in Georgia is beating one record after another. Some were wounded when special forces dispersed the November 7 rally.
All administrative resources are working for Saakashvili's victory. He would like to get between 60% to 70% of the vote; if not repeat his success of 95% in 2004. Of course, 52% (God knows how many are real) is enough to win the first round. But still this makes only half of all voters, whereas Saakashvili is eager to be the father of all Georgians.
He tried to use conventional election technologies and increase civil servant salaries and pensions. But it didn't help much, nor did playing the Abkhazian card - the Rustavi-2 TV channel reported almost round the clock that the Russian peacekeepers were preventing Georgians living in Abkhazia from crossing the administrative border in order to vote. Saakashvili's constant appearances on television channels under his full control (except for Kavkasia broadcasting only on Tbilisi) also failed to produce the desired effect.
On January 4 (the day of silence in Tbilisi when all campaigning is prohibited), all TV channels simultaneously broadcast Saakashvili's speech before his supporters waving national flags in the Palace of Sports for thirty minutes. Two hours after the polling stations were closed and even the first results were not clear, Saakashvili was already celebrating victory in the philharmonic society building. The concert started with the new anthem under the title "Misha the Tough" (literal translation from Georgian).
Apparently, Saakashvili thought that the best way to calm the nation would be to stage a holiday. The night after the elections, obviously organized columns of cars with Georgians flags were driven into the streets. It was cold to celebrate outside and even dangerous - the opposition advocates may not have understood and Georgians are a hot-tempered nation.
The opposition claims that the election campaign cost the national budget a billion dollars. Of course, this information is not official and the figure is most likely exaggerated, but the fact remains that the use of the administrative resource and open falsifications (the opposition is now trying to prove them in courts) have done the trick. For the time being, Saakashvili has kept his power.
Incidentally, the opposition was not only ready for his victory but even reconciled itself to its defeat to a certain extent. A day before the elections, united opposition leader Levan Gachechiladze (not a party member) told me that Saakashvili would win in the first round. "Since blood was shed on November 7, democracy in Georgia has been out of the question. Obviously undemocratic processes are taking place in the country. We do not have access to television or opportunities to put up posters in the streets. Our supporters are being terrorized and put in prison. We do not have representatives in regional constituencies and we cannot track cases of forgery at this level," he said. He also predicted the OSCE response: "Before the Rose Revolution, observers also spoke about the democratic nature of the elections." Gachechiladze thinks that now the main task is to remove a strong president in order to prevent "the final assertion of a dictatorship."
Saakashvili may win a Pyrrhic victory. The Georgians are a proud people. They have not forgiven him for the November 7 events and the president, who knows more about the true election results than anyone else, is fully aware of this. They are not likely to forgive him for January 5. The opposition is ready to go into the streets again even despite the threat of a repeat of the fall scenario.
However, the authorities are not likely to use force against their people again. By its response to the November events and recognition of the elections as meeting international standards, the West has made it very clear to Saakashvili where the admissible border of Georgian democracy is located.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
