MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Maria Appakova) - Iran and al-Qaeda are the main obstacles in the way of the Middle East's movement towards democracy and freedom.
They sponsor terrorism worldwide and threaten regional stability. This is the main message of George Bush's speech given during his visit to Abu-Dhabi.
The speech, delivered at the Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research, is undoubtedly the highlight of Bush's Middle East tour designed to drum up Arab support for America's anti-Iranian policy.
But his words are unlikely to cut much ice in spite of Bush's promises (not expressed openly) of every form of support for the Arabs ranging from security cooperation to economic and social assistance.
Even as Bush was speaking in Abu-Dhabi the Iranian Foreign Ministry distributed to the ambassadors representing the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in Teheran a message from the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad calling for broader cooperation. In December, for the first time in the history of that organization, the Iranian leader attended its summit and offered the Gulf monarchies to set up a joint regional security organization and more intensive economic and cultural ties. Now Ahmadinejad has renewed his calls timing them for the Bush visit to the region.
A simultaneous offer of security cooperation from Bush and Ahmadinejad might have been flattering for the regional leaders but for their fears that Washington and Teheran are simply settling their accounts with each other at their expense. What the Arabs would like least of all is to have to choose between them.
For the Arab Gulf countries the United States is an (admittedly demanding) ally and economic partner, while Iran is a long-time rival. Yet it does not mean that they would not like to maintain a stable relationship with Teheran, especially since the Arab street is more favorably disposed to it than to Washington. The main challenge of the local political elites is to preserve a balance of forces. In spite of their occasional verbal attacks against Iran, they are aware that interacting with it on every issue is a guarantee of stability in the region.
The Arab countries will eschew a confrontation with Teheran unless Teheran provokes an open conflict with them. Washington can hardly count on that: the Iranians are far too smart to allow such a course of events. Bush's words are unlikely to induce the regional leaders to set up a credible anti-Iranian coalition.
Nor is the U.S. President's attempt to reach out to the Arab public likely to meet with much success. Whatever the Arabs may feel about the Iranians and their current policy, they are even more skeptical and mistrustful of Washington. Neither Bush's trip to the Middle East nor his Abu-Dhabi speech can change that. In fact, they are making things worse.
The Arab population is unlikely to be won over by the words about democracy, human rights and the rule of law coming from the man who is responsible for the bloodshed in Iraq, the lawlessness at the Abu Graib jail in Iraq or the Guantanamo prison. Bush's praise of some countries in the region for their recent elections may strike many in the region as hypocritical. In his speech the U.S. President did not forget to mention the municipal elections in Saudi Arabia, the parliamentary elections in Jordan, Morocco and Bahrain, and the presidential elections in Yemen. He described the election of Mahmoud Abbas as the head of the Palestinian Authority as a sign that the Palestinians wanted to move towards democracy and peace. But he studiously avoided mentioning the Palestinian parliamentary elections in 2006, which were won by the Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS). The elections met all the democratic standards, but the U.S. did not like their outcome. The blockade of the Palestinians that followed provided a far more convincing example of democracy than Bush's speeches.
While calling on the people in the Middle East to freely express their will, the U.S. President is hardly prepared to recognize the choices they may make. The local opposition consists mostly not of pro-Western liberals, but Islamists, whom Bush brands as the enemies of democracy and peace. They often enjoy broad support in their countries and come our for free and fair elections. But the U.S. President only sees what he wants to see, dividing the world into the supporters of democracy and extremists.
People in the Middle East know that Bush does not understand and is unlikely to ever understand their region. The Arab leaders who need Washington's support but understand the possible consequences of America's policy are aware of it. The local people, whether Islamists or secular liberals, are even more aware of it. That is why the American President's speech is unlikely to have much resonance in Middle Eastern society no matter how much it may need reform and outside support. The people of the region need democracy and reforms rather than confrontation.
The point at issue is not only confrontation with Iran, but the dividing lines inside the Arab world and inside each individual country. The Bush visit will merely aggravate the cleavages, the Arabs think.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
