MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Ivan Zakharchenko) - Taiwan's nationalist Kuomintang party won a landslide victory in the island's parliamentary elections last week, taking 81 out of 113 seats in parliament, to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party's 27.
The widely predicted victory deals a major blow to President Chen Shui-bian, a vocal advocate of Taiwan's independence.
Attention will now be riveted on the presidential elections on March 22. The political situation on the island remains uncertain - the Kuomintang's success in the parliamentary elections does not guarantee their victory in the March vote.
The Kuomintang has enjoyed a majority in parliament all along, albeit not such a big majority as now, but that has not prevented the DPP from hanging on to power over the past eight years.
Analysts believe that voters in Taiwan have expressed not so much their support for the Kuomintang as their mistrust of Chen Shui-bian, whose rule has been marked by corruption scandals involving his inner circle and worsening economic problems.
The president's pointedly provocative moves in upholding the island's independence from China have complicated economic relations and prevented Taiwan's businessmen from piggybacking on China's economic success.
Beijing does not rule out the use of military force if Taiwan attempts to legitimize its independence. Nevertheless Chen Shui-bian wants to hold a referendum on Taiwan's accession to the UN simultaneously with the presidential elections. Although it would have no practical results, such a move is seen as a provocation even outside China.
Taiwan's recent policy has led to its international political isolation. Costa Rica, Senegal and Malawi recently refused to recognize Taiwan as an independent state, meaning that today only 23 countries have official relations with Taiwan.
Taiwan lost its UN membership in 1971 when it had to yield its seat to China.
Unlike the Progressive Democrats, the Kuomintang traditionally has not advocated secession from China and even has some positive experience of contacts with the PRC. Kuomintang leaders have repeatedly visited Beijing to improve the relations between the two shores of the Taiwan Strait.
The Kuomintang ruled the island for half a century before Chen Shui-bian won the elections in 2000.
It remains to be seen what lessons the ruling party will have to learn in order to prevent Kuomintang winning the presidential election. Chen Shui-bian has already admitted his responsibility for the parliamentary defeat. He has been succeeded as party leader by Frank Hsieh, who is also the DPP presidential candidate.
His opponent in the March elections will be the former Kuomintang leader Ma Ying-jeou. Some observers note that Ma Ying-jeou is vulnerable because he is not an indigenous Taiwanese, unlike Frank Hsieh. That may lose him some votes. At the same time the DPP candidate promises to be more conciliatory towards China.
If Frank Hsieh wins the election his government will find it hard to work with the opposition-dominated parliament. Indeed, the Kuomintang may impeach the president and change the constitution - although, as the president would still have the right to dissolve parliament, it is difficult to see how they can do so.
In any case, regardless of whether Frank Hsieh or Ma Ying-jeou wins the presidential election, Taiwan will be more reticent in its quest for independence.
"Taiwan realized that it would be untimely to raise the issue of independence on the eve of the 2008 Olympics, and indeed China itself would be careful not to stoke up tensions with Taipei," RIA Novosti was told by Alexander Pikayev, the head of the Disarmament and Conflict Resolution Department at the International Security Center, Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO).
He said that although there are those in Taiwan who may try to use the Olympics to redouble their efforts to gain independence, the odds are that they would not do so.
So it is a fair guess that even if the DPP wins the presidential elections in Taiwan, a dramatic change in relations with the mainland is unlikely. However, it is impossible to predict what will happen once the Olympic Games, scheduled for August, are over.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
