Defying the mounting calls for her to quit the race for the Democratic nomination Hillary had an easy win in the West Virginia primaries on May 13 before flying that same evening to Oregon, which will hold its primaries on May 20. She will then head for South Dakota, which, together with Montana and New Mexico, will end the primaries season on June 3. So, she is not going to drop out of the presidential race. The only event that will remain after that is the Democratic Convention in Denver on August 25-28.
Normally at this stage America would have approached the final act of the grand show that is the selection of presidential candidates. The names of both the Republican and Democratic nominees would have been known and it would have remained for the party conventions to put a formal seal on them. The Republicans have long named their candidate, John McCain. But with Hillary and her "own libretto" the Democratic throes of candidate selection are likely to last right up until the convention, as she dearly hopes. Although her chances of success are dwindling by the day, they have not quite disappeared.
However, Clinton has already begun to irritate her party. One of the party grandees said angrily after West Virginia that if Hillary were singing the part of Madame Butterfly they would never have left the opera. Even after the end of the aria she would have insisted that her dear Pinkerton was about to arrive.
Clinton's only chance now is a miraculous turnaround and the support of the super-delegates. Without it she cannot overturn the simple electoral arithmetic. After West Virginia her main rival, Senator Barack Obama, needs only about 160 votes of delegates to secure the nomination. The former First Lady needs 220. After West Virginia only 225 votes in five states will remain in contention. In half of them Clinton has no chance. Super-delegates (senators, representatives, governors and party bosses) are turning away from her. Obama has already secured pledges of support from 276 super-delegates against 274 for Clinton. A little over 260 super-delegates have yet to make up their minds.
But the surest sign that Hillary's second entry into the White House may have to wait is the financial aspect of her campaign. Her campaign headquarters is already $21 million in the red. The huge debt means that contributions to her campaign fund have run out because people don't want to invest in her any more. Some evil tongues say that Hillary continues what is actually a hopeless campaign and is ready to go to the end in the hope that Obama would choose her as her running mate and then she would pay back all her bills.
But that is unlikely. The "swing" super-delegates have no need to hurry. The reason is surprisingly simple. They are afraid to make an open choice and are waiting for the convention. Hillary Clinton is an exceedingly energetic and ambitious woman who does not forgive easily, and few people would like to see her as an enemy even in the more distant future. Some are afraid that Hillary would, after all, become Vice President, others that she would become the Democratic majority leader in the Senate (both outcomes are possible, especially the latter); still others are afraid that even if John McCain wins, Hillary would make another bid to win the White House in the 2012 election, which she would definitely win and take her revenge on her former enemies. In all the three cases no one would like to be on the wrong side of the "battle axe" Hillary.
It looks as if the United States has to prepare itself for the first black president in its history. Although Obama and Clinton, by their wrangling, brought America into a state of total ambivalence, one should not forget that it is only the middle of May. Even those who are seething with anger (over the infighting among the Democrats, the choice of Obama as candidate, the failure to choose Clinton, etc.) will have five and a half months to cool off before the November 4 elections. It has happened before. By the way, the victim on an earlier occasion was John McCain, who in 2000 challenged his fellow party member George W. Bush. At the time the Republicans who were "robbed" of their candidate, McCain, by the Party convention, vowed not to vote at all rather than to vote for Bush. But when November 4 came they happily voted for their "friend George".
Nor should one forget that only about 33 million people are voting in these party elections. In the November 4 elections, 133 million Americans are expected to vote. Most of them will be people who disapprove of the war in Iraq, the mortgage crisis, the economic slump, the fall of the dollar and George Bush himself.
The latter has dropped to a degree of "toxic popularity" that makes it dangerous for any Republican candidate to appear by his side. Of course Bush is McCain's main liability, aside from his age. Even Ronald Reagan who came to power at 70, was 2 years younger than McCain. Reagan, however, had a miraculous charisma of an actor, an old man who would save the nation from the "Empire of Evil" and Soviet communism. McCain doesn't come near him.
By the way, McCain turns out to be the first presidential candidate not born in the United States. John McCain was born in Panama. Under the Constitution, a person not born in America cannot be the President. McCain overcame that hurdle only because in 1936 the Panama Canal Zone belonged to the U.S.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
