MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Maria Appakova)
Having gone through the euphoric high after finally electing a president, an event that the Lebanese had expected for almost half a year, they have embarked on the formation of the government. This may prove to be an even more protracted and difficult process. It requires a lot of maneuvering between the interests of the parliamentary majority, the opposition, and the motley crew of foreign players on the Lebanese political scene.
It would seem that the compromise reached last week by Lebanese politicians in Doha, negotiating with the Arab League's mediation, would not only help elect a president and stabilize the situation in Lebanon, but also considerably improve the regional climate. The May 25 session of the Lebanese parliament, which elected President General Michel Suleiman, even became a kind of international forum. It was attended by representatives of Arab countries, including Syria, Iran, and Western countries. Those who have accused each other for months of interfering in Lebanon's domestic affairs and maneuvering for regional supremacy were seen flashing radiant smiles at their political opponents.
The brightest example of the euphoric high in Beirut was the apology made by the leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, Walid Jumblatt, to Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki for numerous statements about Tehran's interference in Lebanese affairs. Even the worst enemies were ready to hug each other, rejoicing at their success in averting a civil war and a most acute regional crisis.
But euphoria does not last forever. Difficult times lie ahead - the Lebanese now have to distribute seats in the government and start preparing for parliamentary elections, which will be held in 11 months. Considering that the parliamentary majority has proposed Fouad Siniora for prime minister, a post he has occupied for the last two years, the Doha agreements may remain on paper. Siniora is largely responsible for both the prolonged crisis that left the country without a head of state, and for the recent events that almost plunged Lebanon into a new civil war. If the opposition could not come to terms with him before, why should they accept him now? It may agree to his nomination if he is considered a temporary candidate - that is, if he is replaced after the parliamentary elections. But in any event, the formation of the government and its future operation will not be easy.
The next 11 months will be decisive for Lebanon. The new president, a compromise candidate equally acceptable to the majority, the opposition and outside forces, will at least be able to guarantee the conduct of elections. For a long time, nobody in Lebanon has enjoyed such broad support as Suleiman. But emotions are still running high between rival parties; despite the agreements reached by party leaders, clashes between their supporters are breaking out in different parts of the country, and could escalate at any moment.
This is clear from the first statement made after the Doha accords by Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, the leading force of the opposition. He emphasized that his movement will not give up its "weapons of resistance." Although he reiterated the Shia group's promise only to use these weapons against Lebanon's enemies, such as Israel (a promise that it recently broke), his political opponents inside the country, Saudi Arabia, and the United States are not likely to be happy about this.
There is little hope for a dramatic change in the situation. Confrontation between the conventional blocs - "Iran-Syria-Hezbollah-Hamas" and "the United States-Israel" is still there, as is clear from statements made by Syrian politicians and Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal during their visits to Tehran. It only remains to be seen what position other regional forces, and the European countries - first and foremost France - will take in this confrontation.
Paris has declared that after Mr. Suleiman's inauguration, it may step up contacts with Damascus, which it froze last December because of disagreements over Lebanon. Restoration of French-Syrian contacts may considerably improve the regional situation. France has always carried weight in the Arab world.
As for the Arab countries, they are now content with each other - after all, they have proved their ability to resolve their problems without outside, Western, aid. They have improved their attitude to Iran and Syria, which has lately been something of a pariah in the Arab world. Arab League Secretary-General Amr Musa, and Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Hamad Bin Jasim Bin Jabir Al-Thani, the main mediator in the Lebanese talks, complimented Damascus and Tehran, and thanked them for their role in achieving the domestic Lebanese settlement.
Indeed, one of the most interesting remarks to emerge from this crisis was made by the Qatari prime minister in Tehran. He said that it has become obvious that the United States is not a friend of the region's nations, and that the latter should learn to resolve their problems together. Are these just fine words, or an attempt to create a new alliance between the Arab countries and Iran? In any event, the Doha agreements have laid the ground for serious change. Time will tell whether it will be positive or negative.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
