During an EU- Russia summit in the Western Siberian city of Khanty Mansiysk on June 26-27, talks on a new agreement on strategic partnership are to be launched. A number of Russian and foreign political analysts shared their opinions on what to expect from the summit with RIA Novosti.
Sergei Karaganov, chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, Russia
I don't think we should expect any breakthroughs from the Russia-EU summit, but it will mark a positive turn. For a rather long time we could not conduct serious dialogue for many artificial reasons, such as disagreements over Polish meat or phytosanitary issues. Now we will start a more consistent dialogue. But for the time being neither Russia nor the EU know what policy the other side will pursue toward its partner. There are no grounds to expect quick results.
But the most interesting thing that we can expect is not just the start of the talks on a new agreement (I think the talks on the PCA and its ratification will take a very long time) but also the beginning of a more intensive and rational energy dialogue.
At the moment we do not tell each other the truth, though the question is rather simple - what will the prices of oil and gas be? We are being accused of imperialism, and sometimes we manage a snobbish grin, whereas we should simply agree on the joint possession of energy systems, and on the formation of a single Russia-EU system. Once we do this, we will resolve the main problem in Russia-EU relations - the EU wants to pay less for gas, but Russia does not want to reduce the price.
Vladimir Ryzhkov, Politician and Political Writer, Russia
I believe that the forthcoming Russia-EU summit in Khanty-Mansiysk is of enormous significance to both sides for two reasons. To begin with the new Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who has just assumed office, will take part in this summit for the first time, and it is very important for him and the EU leaders to establish warm working relations from the very start. Secondly, this summit is important because after two years of procrastination caused by the Polish veto and Lithuanian and Swedish objections, Russia and the EU are finally starting constructive discussion of the new agreement, which will replace the old PCA. The latter's term expired last year, but it was automatically extended.
I hope that the summit will launch serious, detailed, and professional talks on a new, extensive, detailed and mandatory agreement between Russia and the EU, which, I believe, should lay a legal foundation for deeper Russia-EU integration. I'm not talking about Russia joining the EU, but a deeper integration, up to and including association between the sides on mutually advantageous terms that will bring benefits both to Russia and the EU. I hope that the summit will start this deep-going process.
Dmitry Danilov, deputy director of the European Security Department at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Europe
Many analysts will call the forthcoming Russia-EU summit a historic event because it will be largely linked with the start of the talks on a new agreement. It took us a year and a half to reach this moment, and only recently we have agreed to begin the talks. Time will show how complicated and lengthy they will be, but now it is important to open a new page in relations between Russia and the EU, all the more so since the current situation is rather difficult. Ireland has turned down the Lisbon Treaty, and Russia has only a vague idea of Europe's requirements at the future talks. In this situation, the priority is to compare positions, and try to start active negotiations under the French presidency of the EU.
As a rule, summits do not produce serious decisions, but merely register them. I think that the forthcoming summit will play a major role in Russia-EU relations by registering the sides' agreement to begin the talks on strategic partnership.
Gerhard Mangott, Professor of Political Science at Innsbruck University, Austria
There is still a long way to the conclusion of a new framework Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) between Russia and the European Union (EU), and there is no confidence that it will be signed at all. Much time was spent on reaching agreement among the EU member-countries on the mandate for the start of negotiations with Russia, and there were many disputed issues. Some countries wanted to present their bilateral problems with Russia as common for the EU, which caused further delay.
Now the talks will formally begin in Khanty-Mansiysk, but there are two serious obstacles to the conclusion of a new PCA, because the EU and Russia are pursuing different goals. Russia wants a somewhat laconic PCA, whereas the EU is after a comprehensive agreement that would seal the democratic standards of a law-based state, and guarantee key aspects of energy security. This particularly applies to the EU's intention to integrate the Energy Charter with its transit protocol into the PCA, which could trigger off a conflict at the talks.
Even if the talks are successful, the sides will run into one more major problem. The PCA will have to be ratified by all EU members and the European Parliament. It is not clear if this procedure will be brought to a successful conclusion. The road to the new PCA will be accompanied by conflicts, and will take a long time. It is not ruled out that the talks may well fail.
Sandra Fernandes, Visiting Research Fellow of the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), Belgium
The next EU-summit in Siberia in June will be a very important summit in the all EU-Russia relations which began in the beginning of the 90s just after the collapse of the USSR. What can we expect of this summit? I think that the EU-Russia summit in June in Siberia could be a maturity summit because it could be the occasion for both to clearly put on the table what the positive things are and what is needed to advance the relation further. Long-term stability in Europe is really what should be addressed now.
Anatol Lieven, professor, King's College London, member of the Valdai International Discussion Club
Not very great, to be honest. I hope that various forms of practical cooperation will continue and be enhanced as a result. But in terms of major decisions or progress towards the new EU-Russia treaty, I don't have very high hopes, I must say.
The EU always thinks in terms of these grand treaties which set down fixed permanent rules that both sides have to obey. That doesn't suit Russia at all (both in terms of interests and in terms of overall attitude). I mean that Russia for years now has much preferred to do things on a case by case basis, make perfectly pragmatic agreements with a good deal of willingness to make compromises but certainly not to be tied down in advance to general principles. And of course, Russia also fears, and you could say from experience, has some reason to fear, that the EU will try to tie Russia down to general principles and it will use those to work against Russian interests.
The UK needs good relations with Russia because Russia is an extremely important economic partner of the United Kingdom. Russia plays a critical role in the security of Central Asia and therefore in future of Afghanistan as well, don't forget that. Through the Shanghai Cooperation Council, Russia is a key part of an organization which in the future may well play the leading role in the security of that part of the world.
So we need to deal with Russia on a whole range of security issues. Apart from that...Russia as one of the world's biggest producers and exporters of hydrocarbons and also as a key partner with China and India on the whole set of different fronts is also absolutely central to managing a set of global issues of which the threat of climate change is by far the biggest and most menacing.
Alexander Rahr, Director of the Russian/Eurasia program, German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), member of the Valdai International Discussion Club
I'm hoping that relations between the EU and Russia will warm up. Poland and Lithuania's veto on the start of the talks on a new PCA has been removed, and France, which will assume the EU presidency in the second half of this year, will be the main catalyst of the process. Apart from improving relations with Russia, Nicolas Sarkozy will work for greater closeness and friendship with Russia, and help bring French business to the Russian market. When France takes over the EU presidency, Russia will again have a chance to speak with the EU through an advocate. Russia has two major advocates - Germany and France. If one of them presides over the EU, there are always some positive changes.
Energy remains the main issue and problem in constructing a new PCA agreement. The EU continues to favor the liberalization of energy markets, which is fraught with major headaches for such companies as Gazprom. The Europeans have problems on the Russian market, which is clear from what is happening with TNK-BP. These difficulties may override the positive aspects of the summit in Khanty-Mansiysk. Another complication is the absence of a new Energy Charter, which should better consider Russian interests.
Lucio Caracciolo, Editor of the Italian Geopolitics Magazine «Limes»
Relations between Russia and Europe are a very important subject. But today, Russia primarily has ties with individual European countries. Thus, they are not, and have not been a concern of the EU or the European Commission. Russia is developing bilateral relations with major European countries, such as Italy, Germany, and France because it is more practical. This means that the importance of big-time European politics is very relative. Bilateral relations are the real value.
Jan Rood, Head of European Studies at the Clingendael Institute of International Relations, The Netherlands
I expect the summit to give an official start to the EU-Russia talks on a new PCA. The current agreement expired. It was extended by consent, but it should be replaced with a new one.
There were many disagreements within the EU on this score. Poland and Lithuania created obstacles on the road to the talks, but these problems have been finally resolved and the sides can now start their dialogue.
I think that the EU leaders will learn about Russia's new political climate at the summit. A new president has been elected there. It is very important for the EU leaders to see his attitude to the European Union. I don't think that much will be said during the talks at the summit. They will start but it is clear that the sides will have to discuss many highly complicated issues, such as energy, security cooperation, and the EU and Russia's attitudes to neighboring countries, such as Ukraine and Georgia. All these issues require discussion because the sides have obvious differences on this score. The forthcoming summit will not resolve these problems there and then.
Laure Delcour, Political Scientist and Research Fellow at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations, France
I think that the summit is very important. First, this is the first post-Putin EU meeting, which Dmitry Medvedev will attend as president for the first time. Second, Russia and the EU are likely to discuss their new agreement at it. The new PCA will determine the partners' relations in the coming decade. Thus, the combination of these two factors will play a big role in future Russia-EU relations.
I'm quite optimistic about these relations. Russia and the EU are bound to be partners. They depend on each other and stand to gain from reaching an agreement that satisfies both sides. Apparently the talks are going to be difficult and there will be problematic issues, but I believe both sides realize the need for cooperation in such spheres as energy and visa regulations, which will become the key points of the new agreement.
Thomas Gomart, Head of the Russia/Newly Independent States Center, French Institute of International Relations (IFRI)
This summit will take place in a special context. Russia has a new president, France will hold the rotating presidency of the EU, and a new president will be elected it the United States in the fall. In other words, a whole number of changes are taking place. The start of the talks on a new Russia-EU partnership and cooperation agreement will be associated with the French EU Presidency. These talks were blocked for many years, and should start in early July. I believe that the forthcoming summit will close one cycle and open another at one and the same time. Both sides are now convinced that they should promote relations. They are aware of some real difficulties which they will have to overcome. I think that the summit will turn a new page in the history of our relations.
