A former foreign minister and chief Cabinet secretary, Aso is now the secretary-general of the ruling Liberal-Democratic Party (LDP).
Although Aso enjoys the support of the New Komeito, the LDP's partner in the ruling coalition, he has many opponents - both overt and covert - in his own party. Many would like to see the top job go to Yuriko Koike, Japan's first female defense minister, or even former prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, but the latter is not likely.
In any event, the guessing game will not last long. On September 8, the LDP will announce the formation of its election committee, and on September 21 elect the leader who will automatically become the new prime minister. I feel sorry for the outgoing Fukuda. He gave the impression of being not only a smart but also good man, something very rare among those who reach the top in any state (needless to say, appearance may be deceptive, and I did not know him personally).
Be that as it may, Japanese prime ministers tend to be in power for no more than a year. This is the second case after Shinzo Abe's sudden resignation. A source in the prime minister's office said: "Fukuda is a very conscientious politician, and a reliable person but he is not the type to fill the prime minister's position. He would feel much better in the important post of chief Cabinet secretary."
However, at 72 it is not quite appropriate to explain to the world the political steps of a much younger boss, with whom you don't quite agree. This is why Fukuda left the position of the chief Cabinet secretary, which he occupied under Koizumi.
Japan's businessmen are calling Fukuda's resignation "absolutely irresponsible." Nippon Keidanren (Japan Business Federation) has accused him of leaving his cabinet to its fate. However, all this sounds very Japanese. People are expressing a grievance against someone who ceased bearing a heavy responsibility for fear that part of it will become their own burden.
As Fukuda himself explained at an evening news conference in Tokyo, he decided to resign because of his "inability to cope with numerous and long-standing political and economic problems." The old man toiled away as much as he could and left when he finally understood that he had no hope of improving the situation. He apparently hopes that a shake-up will increase his party's public support, which has been steadily declining and slid below 30% in the last few months.
The victory of the main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) at the elections to the Diet's upper chamber last July twisted the balance in parliament as the LDP still has a majority in the lower chamber. As a result, bills passed at the bottom were instantly blocked at the top.
Fukuda did all he could to promote the idea of reducing greenhouse emissions by industrialized nations. Yet even the G8 presidency, and hosting the group's summit on Hokkaido in July, did not make him more popular.
An attempt to unite the political forces through a government reshuffle failed. The majority in the LDP believed that Fukuda would not win the elections to the Diet's lower chamber scheduled for September next year. To avoid this risk, or at least to avoid responsibility for the LDP's loss of its position as the ruling party, Fukuda made his abrupt decision to resign.
He did try to create a coalition with the DPJ after becoming prime minister late last September, but to no avail. He clashed with the opposition again over the appointment of the head of the Bank of Japan, who was endorsed only during the third round of voting.
Further tensions arose last January by a proposal to extend the stay of Japan's Self Defense Forces (SDF) naval ships in the Indian Ocean, where they were providing fuel for the ships of the anti-terrorist coalition in Afghanistan.
In April and May, the LDP and the DPJ were locked in combat over the reduction of the tax on gas and taxation in general. The ruling party managed to push the tax cuts through after prolonged debate. Subsequent skyrocketing fuel prices and problems with pension records considerably lowered the prime minister's ratings, particularly, among the older generation.
Fukuda expressed the hope that "next time the LDP will choose a more befitting and able man." He had already spoken about the change of leadership with LDP Secretary General Taro Aso, and the Chief Cabinet Secretary Nobutaka Matimura (who cannot stand each other).
Incidentally, Matimura is one more candidate for the prime minister's position, and the mutual dislike between him and Aso may prompt the electors to choose the lesser of the two evils - Koike. If so, she will become Japan's first female prime minister.
Aso makes no secret of his desire to crown his career with the prime minister's position (regardless of how well he fulfils this role), and this is why he agreed to become the LDP's secretary-general, despite his criticism of Fukuda's foreign policy.
Unlike Fukuda, Aso likes publicity and sensational statements. He has expressed the need for Japan to have nuclear weapons, and spoke positively about Korea's colonization by Japan in 1919-1945.
Aso is a wealthy man (the Aso-Cement company has been an industry leader since 1930), and comes from a prominent political family. His grandfather Yoshida Sigeru was prime minister when Japan signed the treaty ending WWII. His father-in-law was prime minister as well, and his sister is married to Emperor Akihito's cousin.
Aso likes to impress the public, and often quotes ancient Chinese classics. At the same time, he is famed for his love of manga comics. He has said that "yellow-faced Japanese will achieve more success in the Middle East than the blue-eyed blonds of the West." It is hard to say whether his ideas of Japanese supremacy will help its foreign policy, but experts say that all this bombast will disappear when (and if) Aso becomes the new prime minister.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
