ESTONIA
The press continues writing about Russia’s threat to the territorial integrity of the Baltic nations. “Georgia was promised admission into NATO if it resolves its territorial problems. This was a direct instruction to Russia as to what buttons to push. Apparently, it was then that the Putin-influenced decision was made to attack Georgia and overthrow its government.” (Diplomatia, September 10)
“Small border states must be vigilant. They should constantly ponder the potential use of force against them if the Russian community is not treated as Moscow’s expects. Estonia and Latvia will be under the biggest threat because the Kremlin intends to increase its influence in the Baltic countries with the help of the Russian speakers, and turn the local national minorities into a potential fifth column.” (Postimees, September 10)
“Until August 8, the majority of people in the West, and even in the former Soviet republics did not expect the Russians to attack anyone arms in hand, but they defeated these expectations. Most Russian neighbors are alarmed that they may become the next victim. Regrettably, after the war in Georgia, we have come under Russia’s threat, and sometimes the Baltic countries seem to be on the war-path with Russia. (SL Ohtuleht, September 16)
LATVIA
Analysts note that Washington has actually been removed from resolving problems in the conflict region. “Russia’s readiness to agree with Sarkozy on settlement is partially explained by the lack of direct U.S. participation. The Kremlin has not given up the old dream of splitting the Western world. This time, the Europeans proved to be ‘good’ by leaving the Americans out.” (Diena, September 10)
Dmitry Medvedev’s statement that Russia would have been involved in the Ossetian-Georgian conflict even if Georgia had the Membership Action Plan (MAP) suggests that the Baltic nations are defenseless in the face of Russia. “The national elites in Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania are saying that they have no defense against their huge eastern neighbor. Only after the Russian army’s operation in the Caucasus was it clear that the Baltic nations have not yet been covered by NATO’s defense plan. The ‘old’ members have a list of measures for several war scenarios with a detailed description of tasks for each army unit. General Roger Brady tried hard to avoid discussing the events in Georgia but could not totally ignore the subject. He said that if a plan for the defense of the Baltic region exists, it must be in embryo.” (Biznes&Baltiya, September 15)
LITHUANIA
The media are seriously concerned over potential economic sanctions which Moscow may impose on Lithuania, its key economic partner, for active support of the Mikheil Saakashvili regime. “Russia is beginning to make life difficult for Lithuanian businessmen. Strictly speaking, for the time being it has merely expressed the possibility for this. Pesticides may not be the only reason for blacklisting our export of fruit and vegetables to Russia. This may be the price we have to pay for the Caucasian affairs. Russia has become Lithuania’s major foreign trade partner. It accounts for 15% of Lithuania’s exports.” (Verslo Zinios, September 10)
“Lithuania should be more flexible towards Russia because it imports its gas from there, and exports 40% of its agricultural produce to it. Lithuanian haulers are worried about the bold statements by Lithuanian politicians and leaders because they have their own business interests in Russia.” (Veidas, September 12)
However, some analysts believe that the armed conflict in the South Caucasus may bring some economic and political dividends to the republic. “We stand to gain from Russia’s increasing political isolation. But Russia’s economic isolation can also deal a heavy blow to us. Therefore, we need a ‘cold peace.’ The events around Georgia and Ukraine have shown that Lithuania may be quite influential in regional events. Russia should understand that if it increases pressure on Lithuania, we will respond. Russia should know that we need a democratic Ukraine in the European Union (EU), and an independent Belarus, to say the least. We also need reliable economic relations with Russia, and we can have them given reasonable conduct.” (Delfi.lt, September 11)
BELARUS
Opposition publications are convinced that President Alexander Lukashenko is going to make the most from the mounting tensions between Russia and the West. “Europe and the United States have seen that there may be serious differences between Minsk and Moscow. This has become particularly obvious after the war in the Caucasus when the West realized that it could change slightly geopolitical relations in Europe by pushing through Georgia’s NATO entry and isolating Belarus from Russia. Judging by the Belarusian government’s attitude to the recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia’s independence, it and Lukashenko have received a rather beneficial offer from the West. If it were not made, the Belarusian leaders would not be so independent in their relations with the Kremlin.” (Zavtra Tvoyei Strany, September 10)
“Belarus is not going to spoil its relations with Georgia over Russia’s ‘special opinion,’ and it is going all-out to show this.” (Belorussky Partizan, September 10)
“Now that relations between Europe and Russia are aggravating, a strategic window of opportunity is opening for Belarus, which is actively involved in its own dialogue with the West. Until November, the chances for a positive attitude from the EU toward any Belarusian initiative will sharply grow. In the next two months, we are likely to see amazing diplomatic maneuvers which Minsk will have to make to fulfill what seem to be mutually exclusive tasks, but only at first sight: to restore friendship with Brussels and not to quarrel with Moscow.” (BelGazeta, September 14)
UKRAINE
Analysts believe that the recent flight of strategic bombers to Caracas and joint exercises of the Russian and Venezuelan navies scheduled for November are part of Moscow’s large-scale anti-Western propaganda campaign. “Generals, admirals, and politicians know full well that Russia has nothing substantial with which to oppose the NATO countries, in particular, at sea. However, easy victories make one dizzy. The spectrum of the Caribbean crisis is coming back to life in Moscow. It would be great to threaten the impudent Yankees just off their shores, in their soft underbelly. Aircraft and warships are being sent to distant lands to show the Americans that they can be reached, and that there will be a befitting response to their presence in the Black Sea. But will it be befitting? It seems that all these visits to remote lands have been launched merely for propaganda at home. They are not likely to scare the Americans that know well the real potentialities of Russia’s quickly declining navy.” (Den, September 16)
The Crimean media, which are traditionally loyal to Moscow, condemn the hypocrisy of NATO leaders that have excluded Russia from taking part in the anti-terrorist operation code-named Active Endeavor: “The United States and NATO have publicly admitted what has long ceased being a secret: Active Endeavor is no more than an expensive military-political show, while an anti-terrorist struggle is a fairy tale for the tax-payers. A brief history of Russia’s participation in the alliance’s military operation should become the best inoculation against NATO membership. Having taken too seriously the myths about trust and global security, Moscow has forgotten good old fairy tales which make it clear that a wolf will never turn into a sheep, even if it feigns interest in cabbage. Regrettably, NATO has not changed a bit since the Cold War. All it has gained in the last few years are Russo-phobic allies and boundless cynicism.” (Krymskaya Pravda, September 13)
MOLDOVA
The media maintain that Russian and Western interests have now clashed in Transdnestr, which has attracted world attention. “Having suffered a tactical defeat in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the West is going to win in another post-Soviet region, notably Transdnestr. In recent days, many European politicians have instantly switched their attention from the situation in the Caucasus to settlement of Moldova’s conflict with Transdnestr. It is vital for Russia to finally seize the initiative from the West, and resolve the Transdnestr issue as soon as possible… It seems that in the near future Russia will try to turn Moldova into a full-fledged ally, and completely pull it away from the West and into its own orbit.” (Lenta PMR, September 12)
National publications are sarcastic about politicians which are trying to gain support from the Kremlin. “The communist government is strongly hinting that it can make substantial concessions to Russia on Transdnestr although few believe that this problem can be settled quickly. By flirting with Moscow, the Moldovan Communist Party is trying to consolidate its position before the 2009 parliamentary elections.” (Jurnal de Chisinau, September 16)
“Having seen Russia’s muscle buildup, and with no hope of getting power, crafty politicians are seeking support from Moldova’s external enemy… They are competing for the role of Moscow’s vassal. However, there are too many participants in this race of ‘Russia’s supporters’.” (Flux, September 12)
ARMENIA
Some experts maintain that the armed confrontation between Moscow and Tbilisi, and the abortive color revolution in Armenia during the presidential elections earlier this year, are part of the same anti-Russian plan. “Western political centers in the South Caucasus had the following plan. For the first stage, during the presidential elections in Armenia in February, these centers wanted to carry out a color revolution like in Georgia and Ukraine by using the opposition’s main nominee, Levon Ter-Petrosian. For the second stage, Georgia was supposed to mount an armed offensive in South Ossetia, and completely oust Russia from the South Caucasus. But the revolution failed. While the West was trying to decide whether it makes sense to move forward to the second stage, Mikheil Saakashvili attacked South Ossetia without taking into account the failure of the first stage of the anti-Russian plot in Armenia.” (Pakagits, September 16)
Political analysts believe that since Yerevan prevented the implementation of an insidious design, Moscow should adjust its policy towards its ally. “Armenia averted the fulfillment of the anti-Russian plot’s first stage, and therefore Russia is obliged to Yerevan to a certain extent. It is very important for Moscow to realize this, and restrain itself from pressuring its strategic ally into recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s independence. Moscow’s failure to show restraint is fraught with deterioration of our relations with Georgia, which is our only link to Russia and Europe for the time being.” (Pakagits, September 16)
GEORGIA
Analysts point out that by opposing the presence of EU observers in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Moscow is trying to gain time for removing any traces of ethnic cleansing there. “Needless to say, the Abkhazians and Ossetians will object to the monitoring by international observers on their territory. However, their presence was agreed upon in Moscow… They [Russian troops] staged ethnic cleansing there [in Abkhazia and South Ossetia], destroyed houses, and killed Georgians, and they do not want any evidence of this… This is exactly why they are against the entry of EU observers there. In any event, Russia will have to comply with the agreed-upon entry of observers. Before they come, it will try to remove all traces, and put a good face on the matter… Russia understands well that these facts will surface all the same, and this is why it is marking time.” (Rezonansi, September 11)
Both the pro-government media and parliamentary opposition have lashed out at former parliament Speaker Nino Burdzhanadze for demanding from the authorities the truth about the recent events. They believe that purposeful criticism of Georgia’s policy will eventually benefit no one but Moscow. “If Burdzhanadze wants to help overcome the crisis, and support the people who have lost their homes and property during the conflict with Russia, it is essential for our political forces to be united at this critical time.” (Novosti-Gruzia, September 15)
“The time will come when we will raise these questions and demand answers to them. But this time has not yet come… It goes without saying that the commander-in-chief should be responsible for the consequences. But this should take place after the case is studied, and there is solid evidence of his guilt… If we did something wrong, international organizations would have left us with a bloody nose. We should think about our country and our people, and prevent them from going down the drain… We should not create problems for our country even if we want to dislodge Saakashvili.” (Rezonansi, September 12)
AZERBAIJAN
Some political analysts believe that for many years, the OSCE Minsk Group has been merely feigning activity on the Nagorny Karabakh issue because the key to its settlement is in Russia’s hands. “The OSCE Minsk Group has claimed for many years that the Karabakh conflict is being resolved, and that only minor details are still outstanding. However, 17 years have passed and there are no results, only a simulation of activity. The occupied lands will be freed as soon as Russia falls apart.” (525th Gazeta, September 12)
“Russia occupied Georgia’s two regions in broad daylight, and nobody did anything about it. Clearly, Russia has the key to resolving the Karabakh problem.” (Express, September 12)
Experts believe that with time the United States will definitely take revenge for Georgia. “Moscow will pay dearly for its recent actions. Washington understands well that Russia is engaged in foul play, and seems to be returning to the Cold War years. The U.S.S.R. was even a bigger empire than Russia. The United States succeeded in causing its collapse, and it will be no problem for Washington to weaken Moscow in due course.” (Xalq Cebhesi, September 12)
“The more goodwill Russia displays on the Georgian issue, the smaller its losses will be.” (Xalq Cebhesi, September 11)
Observers are closely watching what will happen with the transportation of gas from the Azerbaijani Shakh-Deniz deposit to Turkey via Armenia. “For the time being, Yerevan’s attitude to this question is unknown. However, experts think that this project wholly depends on Russia’s consent. If Russia agrees, it will take part in the Nabucco project.” (Musavat, September 11)
KAZAKHSTAN
Journalists are discussing the prospects of international projects on the transit of energy resources from Central Asia to Europe bypassing Russia. They maintain that these projects have become one of the reasons behind the armed conflict in the Caucasus. “Russia and Iran will do everything for Nabucco to remain on paper. If the United States and the EU decide to impose some economic or political sanctions against Russia, Nabucco will turn into a political weapon. Those who support it will be ‘for Europe and America,’ whereas those who object to it, a ‘Russian vassal’. Both Europeans and Americans understand the need to guarantee security for Nabucco, or any other pipelines designed to deliver gas from the Caspian region through the Caucasus. Georgia’s and later on Azerbaijan’s NATO entry is again put on the agenda.” (Delovaya Nedelya, September 12)
Some media believe that the West is training local specialists to turn them into supporters of new color revolutions in the post-Soviet space. “It is worth questioning why the U.S. is speeding up the formation of a pro-U.S. lobby among Kazakh youth. What they offer is not serious education but sooner a crash course of ‘American democracy’ for the maximal number of ambitious young people. Special attention is paid to offended and disgruntled people, and to members of human rights organizations. Our students are getting a whole set of ideological fables about the world’s best American democracy. In turn, American ‘employees’ and CIA supervisors are receiving detailed information about the social, political, and economic situation in the country, outstanding problems, and political attitudes. They are purposefully training the cadres for the forthcoming color revolution in Kazakhstan. Washington is already thinking about switching Nazarbayev’s legacy into reliable hands. It was tamed students that became the driving force of color revolutions in Ukraine, Georgia, and Serbia.” (Zona KZ, September 12)
TURKMENISTAN
Independent sources are drawing public attention to the importance of instruction in Russian in Turkmen schools. They point out that practically all parents regardless of their nationality want their children to study in Russian classes (their number has been limited since the middle 1990s), and are ready to pay what are substantial bribes by the Turkmen yardstick.
“For the parents of the national minorities (Russians, Tatars, and Koreans) there is no question. All of them want their children to receive instruction in Russian. The problem is to get their children into Russian classes, because, strange as it may seem, many Turkmen families also want their children and grandchildren to be taught in Russian. To get a place in the ‘Russian’ class, they resort to pulling in the main department of education, and personal contacts with the school’s director and teachers. In most cases, a bribe guarantees implementation of their dream…Now that the government is signing agreements on the education of Turkmen young people in Russian universities it seems practical to at least increase the number of classes with instruction in Russian, if not re-open full-fledged Russian schools. Restrictions on instruction in Russian in Turkmen schools are creating at least two problems: future students of CIS universities are not fluent in Russian, and parents have to feed corruption to get their children into Russian classes.” (Khronika Turkmenistana, September 4)
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