Features & Opinion
Japan's new economic package ineffective
The government plans to allocate 26.9 trillion yen (about $269 billion) on the program, which has provoked an outcry in the economic community and among the general public. Critics say the program is too expensive and will not radically improve the situation in the Japanese economy.
Let's begin with the trends of the past ten years.
After the economic bubble, with its unrestrained speculative growth of real estate (above all land) prices, exploded in the early 1990s and bad debts provoked a financial crisis, the Japanese government used three methods to remedy the situation.
It cancelled "excessive" acquisitions of industrial equipment and ordered maximum use of available equipment, took measures to prevent bad debts, and halted the growth of salaries and incomes.
This helped stabilize the Japanese financial system, as evidenced by the current growth of the yen despite the global financial crisis.
As a result, Japan overcame a crisis that had lasted more than a decade in the early 2000s and posted economic growth at the end of 2007 and the beginning of 2008. However, that policy also created a deep rift in Japanese society.
The protracted freeze on the growth of income also curtailed domestic demand and increased the country's dependence on exports.
At the same time, Japan's financial stability, including the growth of the yen against the main global currencies, made Japanese goods more expensive and hence less competitive on global markets. Average income, which is the main source of domestic consumption growth, fell by 1 million yen (about $10,000) per household annually.
In early October 2008, the Japanese government made public the first package of additional measures aimed at encouraging domestic consumption. This offered the hope of radical change in the country's economic policy.
But the second package announced by Prime Minister Aso on October 30 has nothing to do with improving the economy. Domestic consumption, which cannot grow without an increase in incomes, is to be encouraged by the allocation of 2 trillion yen ($20 billion) in fixed-sum benefits to every household, meaning a 60,000 yen ($600) payment for a family of four, in cash and commodity certificates.
When this measure was used in several provinces a few years ago, only 30% of the recipients spent the money although there was no promise of higher income. The rest put the money away for a rainy day.
The spot polls held by Japanese media point to a divided, and mostly negative, reaction to the government's plan. Simply put, the people cannot understand why 5 trillion yet (about $50 billion) must be taken from the budget - meaning their pockets - to improve the economy and their wellbeing as a first stage of reform.
The idea of distributing money in cash or commodity certificates smells of cheap populism.
The package also includes a pledge to keep mortgage interest low, increase loans issued to small businesses and social insurance allocations, fix toll payment for high-speed roads at 1,000 yen ($10) irrespective of distance, and increase the possibility of getting free medical assistance during pregnancy by 14 times.
Fixing an incredibly low fee for the use of high-speed toll roads would encourage growth in the non-financial sector if it covered commercial freight transportation. But the measure is planned only for cars and only during weekends and holidays. It can spur the government's popularity with the people but will not cut freight transportation fees, and hence will not cut prices or improve market issues.
The premier promised to improve the social insurance system, because now the Japanese bear the brunt of medical costs. However, these expensive measures imply spending 5 trillion yen ($50 billion) of government funds.
The measures designed to strengthen Japan's financial institutions and revive its economy will give small and medium-sized businesses the possibility to take out loans by keeping the dividend tax low. They stipulate the allocation of 1 trillion yen ($10 billion) to provincial administrations for use at their discretion.
Prime Minister Aso said he would not issue additional bonds that would shift the financial burden to future generations. He said instead that a radical tax reform would start in three years, after the national budget is balanced, to increase consumer tax. Isn't this shifting the burden to a future generation of politicians?
Few people in Japan think Aso will keep his post longer than one year, let alone the three years he needs to implement his program.
"I see Japan as a country of average welfare and average burden, because we can no longer permit ourselves to have average welfare with a low burden," he said at a news conference.
"Average" is the key word in Japan's modern culture of leveling off income in order to keep the public tranquil.
The opposition and its mouthpiece, the Democratic Party, have risen as one against the government's package. The opposition leaders say they cannot understand how the distribution of cash and commodity certificates and a promise of increased taxes will improve welfare, because the money will at best be stashed away for a rainy day.
The proposed package does not offer a strategy for encouraging domestic consumption and reviving the economy.
Many Japanese analysts say that these measures can only dampen public dissatisfaction and raise the falling rating of the government and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party until the parliamentary elections, which are expected to preserve the party as the leading political organization and the status quo in the country.
This is possible but improbable, because nothing can now save the Liberal Democratic Party. Its political agony will continue, as proved by Aso's arguments against holding elections in the lower house of parliament, on which his opposition and even the centre-right New Komeito Party, a member of the ruling coalition, insist.
Aso says the elections should be postponed to give the government time to deal with economic problems, and also because "the crisis-stricken world cannot be left without the guidance of two global economic superpowers - America and Japan - during the change of power in the U.S."
In addition, the elections will be paid for from the budget and will hence increase the tax burden on the public, the premier said.
This is true, yet the main reason for postponing the elections is the unavoidable defeat of the LDP. Democrats and their allies in the opposition will definitely get more seats in parliament, making the balance of political forces there roughly equal.
Many political analysts say that this will split both the ruling and the opposition parties, because the latter is not united and is governed by weak leaders. After that, Japan will need several years to form a new political structure.
In short, Aso's shallow economic package will not help him improve the economy or make the government and the ruling party more popular with the people.
Radical political measures can only be implemented at personal, party or public sacrifice. But Japan's current leaders are not ready for it, which is only human. The majority of polled Japanese said they did not want to become poorer.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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