The CIS and Baltic press on Russia

ESTONIA

A number of local analysts expect that the new U.S. president, an advocate of genuine democratic values, will be an uncompromising opponent of Russia's, unlikely to want to seek common ground with "Russian militarists."

"Russia seems nostalgic for the Cold War, when the United States played the role of the biggest external enemy. [Prime Minister Vladimir] Putin, who, like all militarists, likes to maneuver heavy armor, fleets and wings, must be missing the enemy.

"But [Barack] Obama doesn't share his feelings, so he is an unpleasant enemy for post-Soviet Russia just as Kennedy was for the former Soviet Empire." (Eesti Paevaleht, November 4)

Opponents of this view believe that relations between Moscow and Washington will go uphill from this point, and Tallin will get a unique historic chance to mediate between the EU, Russia and the United States.

"It would be the right moment for Estonia to try and improve relations with Russia. Estonia is a small country, but with a unique geopolitical position. We have a real chance to help build a bridge between Russia and the West by mediating Russian-European and Russian-American relations.

"It is high time we abandon the policy stubbornly pursued to this day by part of our political elite, the policy of scoring points on the international arena by cashing in on others' conflicts." (Postimees, November 6)

LATVIA

President Dmitry Medvedev's threat to deploy Iskander missiles in Russia's westernmost exclave of Kaliningrad was as good as a declaration of Cold War to Washington, Latvian media sources speculate.

"Officials [in the Kremlin] must have realized that Russia is facing economic turmoil and concluded that the tried and tested hard line practice will be the most reliable means to preserve the regime.

"There are no credible reasons for Moscow to be so annoyed by the U.S. interceptor missiles. It is simply a political challenge for [Barack] Obama, and even more so an attempt to blackmail the United States and Europe. Medvedev has indicated that Russia's foreign policy will remain unchanged. It will even grow more aggressive." (Diena, November 7)

The newspaper further admits that the real threat posed by Russia is small, as its ability to begin mass production of advanced missile systems seems doubtful.

"Serial production of Iskanders will only begin next year, and one can't be certain that the products will be identical to the pilot samples, because Russia's industrial equipment is extremely worn-out."(Diena, November 7)

"The statement about initiating a race against NATO is nothing but propaganda. By fuelling tensions Russia is keeping up the feeling of being surrounded by enemies and encouraging belligerent sentiments in its people.

"What will happen if Russia carries out its threat to deploy Iskanders [in Kaliningrad]? Probably nothing. The Five-Day War showed that Russia's military might isn't as formidable as it seemed.

"Medvedev's threats will mostly affect the Kaliningrad Region residents, as further militarization won't benefit their welfare in the slightest."(Latvijas Avize, November 7)

LITHUANIA

Already on the election day in the United States, experts were predicting that Barack Obama's victory will considerably weaken Lithuania's position in its relations with Russia, which might provoke a military conflict with the Baltic states, Poland and Ukraine in the near future in order to annex their territories and create a new state, similar to the Soviet Union.

"After the presidential election in the United States, Russia will invade the Baltic states, Ukraine and Poland, several Russian and American experts have predicted. Their reasoning behind the forecasts differs. In four years Russian bombs and missiles will be dropped on Poland and Ukraine will be occupied by Russian troops. Other former communist states will suffer the same fate. If Obama is elected president, a global crisis will break out because adversaries will want to test how the new president will behave. Russia will be a major participant in this conflict. Like in Georgia, it will explain its actions by saying it is defending its citizens' interests. Russia's aggression against Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria may begin in 2012." (Lietuvos Zinios, November 4)

Journalists regretfully admit that George W. Bush paid much more attention to Lithuania than the new president is likely to, which will leave Vilnius vulnerable to Russia's aggression.

"Having lost Bush, Lithuania became much weaker... Americans got tired of Bush's conservative administration, and the rest of the world treats the U.S. president in a similar way. Strange as it seems, Bush was the best U.S. President for Lithuania. He did not get involved in EU leaders' postmodernist twaddle about peace. He was guided by power principles based on practical rather than ideological considerations." There was a place for Lithuania in the world being built by the United States... Lithuania promoted Bush's interests, which is why it was a critical state for the United States. "Lithuania's ‘Eastern policy' is coming to an end: from now on we won't be able to rely on friendship with the United States alone. This means that during talks with the EU and Russia our voice will be much less audible, and we will have to search for a new ally and tools. It is essential to bear in mind that our diplomatic resources are limited; the outgoing Bush administration means losing our stronghold; Lithuania's influence in the world may come to naught." (Delfi.lt, November 5)

BELARUS

According to official media, the Russian government's efforts to resolve the Karabakh issue is explained by the fact that Russia is defending its positions in the Caucasus and simultaneously trying to improve its peacekeeping image in the eyes of the world community. "After the war in South Ossetia the West treats Russia almost as a rogue country, and now Russia seeks to earn real peacekeeper's laurels."(BelTa, November 3)

The media note that, unlike Russia's top politicians, Libya's leader Muammar al-Qaddafi received a truly warm welcome in Belarus. According to the press, it is explained by Libya's attractiveness as a trade and economic partner that could counterbalance Russia. "Because of ten years of sanctions Libya has not been able to put to good use the $60-70 billion it has saved up. However, not only Belarus, but also Russia, which sustained heavy losses following the financial crisis last month, is laying claim to these funds." (Belorussky Partisan, November 4)

UKRAINE

Journalists writing about Murat Zyazikov's dismissal from his post of Ingushetia's president point out that in its bid to at least partly stabilize the situation in the North Caucasian republic, the Kremlin had to give in to the opposition's demands.

"Living conditions in Ingushetia are so poor that the number of people willing to serve in the army - to get away from home - triples the draft, which was already high. Ingushetia is the only region in the country where military officers are bribed by young men for the opportunity to be drafted, not to get out of military service. The state of affairs in the North Caucasus has been increasingly causing Moscow's concern. The Kremlin is compelled to abandon its rules, the first and foremost of which is never dismissing local heads under pressure from the public, and certainly not the opposition." (Den, November 4)

According to columnists, the death of the Nerpa submarine's crew as a result of a fire on board will be a staggering blow to the reputation of the Russian military-industrial complex as well as Russia and its leader's prestige in the international arena. "Dmitry Medvedev should demonstrate maximum attention to the tragedy to avoid recriminations Vladimir Putin was confronted with after the Kursk sank. The Kremlin will have to abandon success reports about the Russian army's revival. The Russian military-industrial complex's export potential will incur losses as well. Russia's propaganda machine has given out for a while." (Gazeta 24, November 10)

MOLDOVA

Some articles on Russian State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov's tour of Moldova are written with undisguised animosity. The visit is presented as another manifestation of Moscow's imperial ambitions, which is trying to impose its will on former Soviet republics. "This political fox of Russian imperialism seeks to bring Chişinău to its knees making it yield to Tiraspol and spread a political carpet for tsar Medvedev's forthcoming visit to Moldova." (Timpul de dimineaţă, October 29)

The media explain NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer's visit to Moldova by the alliance's wish to neutralize the Russian factor in Transdnestr. Journalists believe that the August war in South Ossetia confirmed the seriousness of Moscow's intentions to restore its dominance in the post-Soviet space at any cost. "As a matter of fact, Putin's new doctrine envisions a possibility of military intervention in former Soviet republics to topple intractable governments replacing them with those loyal to Moscow." (Jurnal de Chişinău, November 4)

ARMENIA

Journalists are pessimistic about the outcome of the Moscow meeting between the presidents of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. They say Moscow is giving the appearance of energetic mediation in the region.

"The declaration contains nothing new. It could be a documents signed 10-15 years ago." (Aikakan Zhamanak, November 4)

"The parties will interpret the reference to the norms and principles of international law in accordance with their diametrically opposite approaches to the problem, the same as they did before." (PanArmenian.net, November 3)

"The presidential meeting has not produced any result, unless you consider the joint declaration a result. The declaration was an attempt to save face. It was designed to show that Russia's mediation is having an effect. Russians are losing their last chance to be mentioned in the history of the Caucasus in connection with Karabakh." (Lragir.am, November 3)

GEORGIA

Some political analysts view the intention, expressed in Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's state of the nation address, to extend the presidential terms from four to six years as the strengthening of the president's and the weakening of the prime minister's positions.

"Medvedev's initiative means that he will make Putin wait for two more years... By announcing the news at such a high level, he showed that Putin's power has diminished compared to his own." (Rezonansi, November 6)

The media are focused on the situation in the former Georgian regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Observers say the issue of new passports to Abkhazian residents, most of whom held Russian passports before, points to Sukhumi's intention to distance itself from Moscow.

"Contrary to their pledge to be with Russians, Abkhazians know that the Russians have other plans for them, and so are trying to dissociate themselves from the Russification and integration processes... In principle, this means that they want to dissociate themselves from Russia. Few people in Abkhazia want to join Russia." (Rezonansi, November 8)

AZERBAIJAN

Analysts write that the Moscow meeting of the presidents of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan marked a new stage in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, but the Kremlin's efforts were not as energetic as expected. Others say the declaration signed on the results of the meeting is senseless and denounce it as a "Russian propaganda" instrument.

"Moscow has many levers of pressure on separatists, whose leader, Bako Saakyan, is a Moscow puppet and a former KGB officer. The Russian special services know his strong and weak sides very well... The document is useless; the only new element is that all stages of negotiations must be supplemented with international guarantees. But the meaning of the provision is not explained. Russia pointed out that it is the first document signed in the past 15 years." (Ekho, November 4)

KAZAKHSTAN

Commenting on the Moscow meeting of the presidents of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan held to discuss the Karabakh settlement, analysts write that the Kremlin will be hard put to find a solution that would suit all sides and at the same time strengthen Russia's influence in the region. They are convinced that Russia will redouble its efforts in the region as soon as the presidential race ends in the United States.

"Armenia remains Russia's strategic bridgehead in the Caucasus, and Azerbaijan, a key player in energy transit, features prominently in Russian plans. Russia still has six months to work out compromises without American involvement. If it loses time, Baku and Yerevan will have to build their plans on the U.S. stance, which may differ dramatically from Russia's." (Delovaya Nedelya, November 7)

The press writes that the measures taken by the Russian government to stabilize the economic situation will not produce the desired result, because an effective system of monitoring the use of budget funds has not been created during the eight years of Putin's presidency.

"In 1992, the Central Bank injected money into the economy seeking to support the real economy sector suffering from non-payments, but money was redirected to the speculative foreign currency market. Nothing has changed since then; nobody has mended the pipe through which money should be injected into the non-financial sector." (Respublika, November 11)

UZBEKISTAN

Journalists continue to discuss the results of the Georgian-Russian conflict, and say Moscow did the right thing.

"Georgia used crude force in an attempt to regain control over a breakaway territory, which led to numerous casualties and destruction... It is apparent that Georgia would not have opted for hostilities against a strong neighbor without promises of external assistance... Mikheil Saakashvili... decided to jump into the whirlpool hoping that Uncle Sam would not let him drown... The opportunistic move taken in the hope of unblocking an old conflict came against Russia's resolute and firm rebuff, and therefore failed dismally." (Novosti Uzbekistana, November 7)

Journalists also write that none of the CIS members supported Russia during the conflict.

"None of the [CIS] countries clearly and unambiguously supported Russia's actions, not even Belarus, which tried to take advantage of the conflict to improve relations with the United States and European countries." (Novosti Uzbekistana, November 7)

KYRGYZSTAN

The local media discuss the outcome of the Moscow meeting between the presidents of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

"First, unlike Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev acted as a responsible politician. Second, the presidents affirmed their readiness to settle the conflict on the basis of the peace initiatives advanced by the OSCE Minsk Group. They would not have taken such a decision with the mediation of the Turkish government." (Apta, November 6)

TAJIKISTAN

Analysts worry that the economic crisis in Russia may affect Tajik migrant workers, only 20% of whom are working there legally.

"The financial crisis, which has shaken many countries, has reached Russia and may affect migrant workers. At present, about one million Tajiks are working outside Tajikistan, only 20% of them legally." (Vecherny Dushanbe, November 6)