MOSCOW, February 02 (RIA Novosti) Moscow, Washington can reach agreement on missile defense - expert/ Tajik leader demonstratively cancels Moscow visit/ Washington will determine Saakashvili's political future/ Russian aid to Cuba suddenly balloons in size
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Moscow, Washington can reach agreement on missile defense - expert
Influential Democrat Carl M. Levin, chairman of the Senate Committee on Armed Services, now trying to mend U.S.-Russian relations, said mutual cooperation on the missile defense issue could facilitate a breakthrough in bilateral relations, if both nations joined forces to prevent Tehran from developing its own nuclear weapons.
Russian analysts said Senator Levin had borrowed an originally Russian idea.
In 2007, Moscow said the problem of deterring Iran should be perceived in the context of Russian-U.S. or Russia-NATO cooperation. "Although the joint use of the Russian early-warning radar in Gabala, Azerbaijan, was the most attractive aspect of Moscow's proposal, the United States opposed it," Alexei Bogaturov, deputy director of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of International Security Studies, told the paper.
"At the same time, Russia did not conceal its apprehension toward the overall Iranian nuclear program, but said the constant stirring of tensions hindered mutual understanding," Gabalov stressed.
He said Russia and the United States could resume discussions on the Iranian issue, and that Washington should realize that Moscow will, most likely, demand that both sides prioritize the missile defense issue.
"If the United States were prepared for this, then I think both sides would be able to actively discuss various aspects of the situation around Iran," Gabalov told the paper.
Gabalov said long-held disagreements would resume if the deployment of missile defense elements in Europe and efforts to deter Iran's potential military nuclear ambitions were discussed separately.
Vedomosti, Kommersant
Tajik leader demonstratively cancels Moscow visit
Tajikistan's President Emomali Rahmon has cancelled his planned trip to Russia to attend the CSTO and EurAsEC summits, citing an energy crisis in his country, despite Moscow's attempts to persuade him to change his mind. Relations between Moscow and Dushanbe have been cooling down for the past few months.
A source close to the Tajik Foreign Ministry said preparations for the planned three-day visit had been suspended. Rahmon will probably cancel his forthcoming visits to the Baltic States as well, the decision is to be announced on Monday, the official said, adding that the president was unlikely to travel abroad until the European Commission meeting on February 9.
Dushanbe-Moscow contacts have reached a low, said Andrei Grozin of the CIS Institute, a Moscow think tank, adding that the two countries had failed to reach an agreement on the joint construction of the Rogun hydropower plant in Tajikistan and on terms for Russia's military presence in the country.
"We should have expected this [demarche]," said Alexei Malashenko from Moscow's Carnegie Center. He said Tajikistan was clearly unhappy with Russia's negligence, as the latter was funding Kyrgyzstan and courting Uzbekistan while obviously ignoring Tajikistan.
President Dmitry Medvedev said during his visit to Uzbekistan that Russia would not participate in any hydropower projects in Central Asia unless neighboring countries agreed. His statement in fact supported Uzbekistan's concerns that the proposed Tajik plants would deprive Uzbekistan of water.
Analysts believe officials in Dushanbe are fuelling tensions to show Moscow it will need to fight for Tajikistan's cooperation.
"Tajikistan has cooperation proposals from the United States, and the latter is now using one of the Tajik airports [for its operation in Afghanistan]," Malashenko said. "China is also active in the region. They have recently built the Dushanbe Khodzhent highway there."
Rahmon's upcoming European trip is also aimed at showing Moscow that it is not the only possible partner for Tajikistan.
Kommersant
Washington will determine Saakashvili's political future
The resignation of Georgian Prime Minister Grigol Mgaloblishvili barely three months after being appointed has revived debates about Georgia's political future, a Russian analyst writes.
Sergei Markedonov, head of the ethnic relations department at the Moscow-based Institute of Political and Military Analysis, writes in the business daily that the opponents of President Saakashvili in Tbilisi and Moscow see the quick turnover in premiers as an indication of the regime's imminent fall. But this is a hasty conclusion, the analyst writes.
The prime minister is not a politically important post for the current Georgian regime. Quite a few prominent Georgian politicians, including Prime Minister Zurab Nogaideli, Parliament Speaker Nino Burdzhanadze, Minister of Conflict Resolution Georgy Khaindrava, and Defense Minister Irakly Okruashvili, failed to create opposition structures after stepping down.
Moreover, their differences with the president on key issues are not strategically important, Markedonov writes. They hold a grudge with Saakashvili, but do not have either a smart alternative plan or any new ideas to offer the people.
The worst part is that Georgian society is not ready to admit its defeat in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which makes the name and biography of the next prime minister unimportant.
And lastly, Saakashvili's political future is largely determined outside Georgia. The new White House team is now scrutinizing the policies President Barack Obama inherited from the neo-conservatives.
According to Markedonov, the new administration is considering the cost of continued confrontation with Russia over Saakashvili, and whether or not it should give the "young democracy" unconditional support.
Making a U-turn is not a U.S. habit, the analyst writes, but a smooth correction in policy that could lead to major changes in Georgia is quite possible. This correction is more important for considering the future of Georgia than the latest change in Georgia's political structure, Markedonov concludes.
Vedomosti
Russian aid to Cuba suddenly balloons in size
All loans and aid to Cuba, agreed on Friday between Dmitry Medvedev and Raul Castro, now total $354 million rather than the planned $20 million.
Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Shatalov reported that a state loan to Cuba to purchase Russian agricultural and construction equipment as part of an agreement endorsed together with his Cuban counterpart, amounted to $150 million, which Cuba will get over a period of nine years at 7% p.a. (the first two years will be a grace period, while during the next seven years the body of the debt will be repaid). Another agreement is expected to allocate $20 million for 10 years at 5% p.a. (with four grace years), Shatalov said. He said agreement had been reached for Cuba to get another $100 million to lease Russian equipment. The deal will be formalized shortly.
According to a Foreign Ministry source, it was planned previously to grant Cuba only a $20 million loan, but unexpectedly, a few hours before the deal was signed, Medvedev and Castro agreed on the allocation of a further $150 million and $100 million.
The sides also agreed on a VEB export loan worth $47 million, to be used by Ilyushin Finance Co. (IFC) to supply a Tu-204SE cargo airliner to Cuba's Aviaimport SA.
According to Andrei Lipovetsky, an IFC spokesman, this is the fourth Tu-204 being exported to Cuba. Russia has already delivered three Il-96 passenger jets there. This pre-export loan is a way of assisting Russia's aircraft industry, said Andrei Mazurov, a VEB spokesman.
Free food aid for Cuba will total another $37 million, Shatalov said. There are two tranches of 25,000 metric tons and 100,000 metric tons of grain ($7 million and $30 million, respectively). The first is ready for shipment.
The previous Russian loan allocated to Cuba under the 2006 agreement amounted to $335 million. According to Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, who heads the Russian delegation on the intergovernmental commission, it has virtually all been spent.
A $20 million loan is being granted to repair and buy spare parts for military equipment supplied during the Soviet era, said a Defense Ministry source.
Vyacheslav Davidenko, a Rosoboronexport spokesman, said military technical cooperation with Cuba is small scale, but steady.
RIA Novosti is not responsible for the content of outside sources.
