EU restructuring will disappoint Russia's hopes for new treaty

Vladimir Chizhov, the Russian envoy to the European Union, expressed cautious optimism about the future of Russia's relations with the EU, which will begin its administrative reform on December 1.

Commenting on the results of the recent Russia-EU summit, Chizhov noted that Moscow does not want a specific energy agreement with the EU right now because it hopes for a new treaty that would "reflect the principles of cooperation in the energy industry."

This means that Moscow has not given up its hopes of a new partnership and cooperation agreement (PCA) to replace the 1994 treaty between Russia and the EU, both of which have since changed significantly. All attempts to work out a new treaty have been in vain. In 2007, Poland used its rights as an EU member nation to veto talks for a new treaty, and new problems have since come up in Russia-EU relations.

Moscow apparently believes that now that the EU administrative structure has changed, it will be impossible to block progress on the treaty. This assumption is most certainly based on the new decision-making process stipulated by the Lisbon Treaty. After December 1, a decision will be adopted if supported by 55% of EU member states that account for at least 65% of Europe's population. The fact that the countries that want to work with Russia are mainly the big powers of Western Europe, such as Germany, Italy and France, gives Russia hope that progress will be made on a new PCA with the EU.

However, I'm afraid these hopes are doomed to failure. First, this new decision-making process will replace the current one only in 2014. Second, a new treaty, if signed, will need to be ratified by the parliaments of all 27 EU members, at least four of which, namely the Baltic states and Poland, have always been Russia's inveterate opponents.

Russia can hardly rely on the assumption that Herman Van Rompuy, the new EU president, and Catherine Ashton, the EU's first High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, will be able to persuade the obstinate EU member nations. Van Rompuy's function is to coordinate these governments' interests rather than give orders to them or, heaven forbid, their parliaments.

To avoid even the slightest abuse of the new officials' modest powers, European power brokers deliberately chose colourless people to the posts of president and foreign office chief, namely the little-known Van Rompuy and Ashton, and passed over the charismatic Blair. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso even emphasized his displeasure at calling Van Rompuy president after the latter assumes office on December 1.

It is most likely that Gunnar Wiegand, the European Commission's Director for Eastern Europe, Southern Caucasus and Central Asian Republics, will again represent the EU at the talks over a new PCA agreement with Russia. True, his directorate will probably be incorporated into the supreme foreign policy body of the EU that will be headed by Ashton. But it will be the European Council (that is, the governments of EU member nations) that will shape the policy of this body for the most part, while the European Commission will retain certain functions.

Real progress on a new PCA will be possible when EU bureaucrats change their perception of Russia, and cease to regard it as a hazardous country and economic rival that must be kept out of Greater Europe. In other words, the EU must revaluate its entire ideology in relation to Russia, rather than replace a few high-ranking bureaucrats.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti commentator Dmitry Babich)