Obama points to "pathway" for Iran

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Iran has responded to President Barack Obama in a familiar manner, flouting a U.N. Security Council resolution by bringing two interconnected 164-machine centrifuge cascades on line to better enrich uranium.

Iran has responded to President Barack Obama in a familiar manner, flouting a U.N. Security Council resolution by bringing two interconnected 164-machine centrifuge cascades on line to better enrich uranium.

In reality, Iran's actions only seem like a response to Obama's unexpected address at the meeting with reporters in the White House last Wednesday. The cause and effect are actually the other way around. The reports of the latest development in Iran's nuclear program came from the July 17 inspection by the IAEA, while Obama spoke with reporters August 4. Obama was, in fact, responding to Tehran.

It was an unusual encounter with the press. A small group of journalists were invited to the White House for a meeting. The purpose of the meeting was not disclosed, nor did the reporters know that the president would be in attendance. At the meeting, Obama reiterated his support for the U.N. Security Council sanctions against Iran imposed on June 10 in light of its refusal to halt uranium enrichment as well as the much tougher coordinated sanctions imposed by the U.S. and European Union soon after. He discussed how the United States and Europe are cautioning China and Japan not to use the situation as an opportunity to step up investment in Iran. By the way, Russia had warned against "two-tier" sanctions, which mean actions in circumvention of the UN... And yet, Obama said he was still offering Iran a "pathway" to a peaceful settlement of the nuclear issue.

In fact, Obama arranged this meeting to preempt any talk that his policy was heading toward a dead end - Obama got his sanctions but to little effect. He also reminded his audience of U.S.-Iranian talks on issues unrelated to Iran's nuclear program, for example, Afghanistan. Iran is Afghanistan's neighbor, making it a key player in the region. Now the U.S. wants to resume the talks with Iran.

So what's really going on here? Is Obama merely seeking a clear conscience, knowing that Tehran will go its own way no matter what? Or are there other reasons? Analysts at The Washington Post put forward their own explanation: Obama knows that now would be a good time for Tehran to make a deal, because the sanctions are beginning to weigh heavily on Iran's economy and also because Iran is beginning to run up against technical difficulties in its efforts to enrich uranium to weapons-grade level, which is the reason for the sanctions.

Analysts estimate that it will take the country another two years to actually build a nuclear bomb, if this is really its aim. The Obama administration believes that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will have to deal with serious economic problems in two years due to the effects of the sanctions. There are signs that the Iranians will be willing to talk, which is why Obama has re-extended the offer, albeit indirectly, in his meeting with journalists.

There are two other ideas floating around; one has to do with Israel, the other with Vietnam, oddly enough.

The situation with Israel is more or less predictable. Middle East experts recently gathered in Moscow, where they agreed, despite their differences, that tensions between Israel and Iran could boil over into an armed conflict as early as this fall. The details are not that important: it could manifest itself in fighting between intermediaries, or something else.

It's still dangerous to say such things openly in the United States. Legendary film director Oliver Stone is probably the only one who can get away with it. But Americans are truly tired of defending Israel, whose policies are becoming increasingly radical, upending America's entire Middle East policy.

Obama clearly doesn't want the United States to be drawn into any more wars in the region, and he will need all the partners he can get to continue safely withdrawing troops from Iraq and to pull out of Afghanistan further down the line. Obama will continue his attempts to persuade Iran. If he succeeds, Israel will surely moderate its position.

As for Vietnam, the U.S.-Vietnamese nuclear deal currently in the works is extremely important for America's East Asia policy. Obama cannot afford to have the public and especially Congress turn against this initiative because of its close resemblance to the Iran situation.

In short, Vietnam is being offered the same deal as Iran but with one major proviso: Vietnam can purchase fuel and equipment from the United States for its nuclear power plants, which will help revive the U.S. nuclear industry. However, Vietnam is reluctant to pledge not to enrich uranium on its own, just like Iran. Negotiations have lasted over a decade. There are related political issues as well, such as the U.S. attempts to create a counterweight to Chinese influence to its south. The Iranian problem could put that plan in jeopardy.

All this might also have repercussions for U.S.-Russian relations, which are complicated enough as they are. Moscow warned Washington that if it wants Russia to sign on to UN sanctions against Iran, it must refrain from imposing additional U.S. and EU sanctions, as this would make Russia (as well as China and some others) look bad. It would also create problems for Russia with its own companies, which fully intend to work with Iran in compliance with the UN resolution.

After ignoring Moscow's warning, Washington cannot expect further cooperation on sanctions.

Yet, Obama's attempts to bring Tehran back to the negotiating table are an important sign. The Obama administration is clearly different from the Bush administration. Although their policies might seem similar - continuing to ratchet up pressure until complete capitulation and regime change - Obama is more inclined toward diplomacy than to military action. This should certainly be taken into account; Obama's policies are worthy of cooperation in certain cases.

Dmitry Kosyrev, RIA Novosti political commentator

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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