The drama in Andizhan (the revolt of the Islamic fundamentalists and its suppression by government forces) was the backdrop for a crucial geopolitical choice made by the Tashkent authorities. Aware of political risks to his political regime after a series of "color revolutions" in the CIS countries, President Islam Karimov had to make a choice: Either to continue relying on the U.S. or launch rapprochement with Russia.
"The Uzbek leadership posed as a friend of the U.S. for a long time, but Karimov has seen that this cannot serve as a guarantee of his regime," said State Duma deputy Konstantin Zatulin. This is why Karimov reviewed his foreign policy and announced the withdrawal from GUUAM, an organization comprising Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova that opposes Russia, and began to play a more proactive role in CIS structures.
Karimov probably decided that Russia would pursue a traditional policy with regard to his regime, supporting it if its actions were pro-Russian and not issuing any demands to see it adjusted to Western standards. The U.S. would have granted support only simultaneously with increasing pressure on Tashkent to liberalize the regime, ensure the rights of the opposition, and so on. This is completely unacceptable to such a strongly authoritarian leader as Islam Karimov.
By opting for rapprochement with Russia, Karimov could act in internal political conflicts more harshly, without having to look up at the West.
Russia sided with the Karimov government immediately and unconditionally. It denounced "the extremist action in Uzbekistan, where the extremists used force and unconstitutional methods to attain political goals," which led to heavy casualties, runs a statement from the official Foreign Ministry's spokesman Alexander Yakovenko. "At this difficult time, Russia supports the leadership of friendly Uzbekistan."
The Russian and Uzbek presidents had a telephone conversation on May 14. Even before the revolt was suppressed, Russian Minister of Industry and Energy Viktor Khristenko said Russia would help Uzbekistan settle the situation in Andizhan if necessary. Importantly, he spoke about assistance to settle the problem rather than any form of political mediation, which the rebels asked for in their doomed attempt to win Moscow's ear. Their stand was probably influenced by the events in Kyrgyzstan, when the Kremlin talked with both Akayev and the opposition and quickly recognized the latter's victory.
But the Kyrgyz opposition is a political group with prominent figures, such as the current acting President Kurmanbek Bakiyev and Foreign Minister Roza Otunbayeva. The events in Uzbekistan were a bloody riot provoked by the radicals who let dangerous terrorists out of prison.
The European Union took a harsh anti-Karimov stand, accusing the Uzbek government of a massacre in Andizhan. Protests testify to tensions created by the government, which disregarded human rights and the law neglected to help the poor, said the press secretary of the European Commission. According to him, the events in Andizhan and Tashkent cannot justify merciless persecution; the Uzbek government should launch political and social reforms and ensure full respect for human rights and the law.
The EU does not have crucial interests in the region and hence can take a purely moralist stand. The same goes for the sharp comments about the Uzbek authorities' actions that came from British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw.
The U.S. tried to kill two birds with one stone - to put a distance between itself and Karimov without severing relations with him. Before the revolt was suppressed, Washington had called on the Uzbek government and the protesters to show restraint. It added that the people of Uzbekistan wanted a more representative and democratic government, but such a government should come to power peacefully and not in a violent manner.
This position shows that the U.S. does not need either excessively strong radicals (who threaten not only local presidents but also American interests in Afghanistan) or a stronger Karimov regime, which refuses to liberalize but instead maintains the status quo in domestic policy and is becoming closer with Russia within the CIS.
The pro-Russian choice of Uzbekistan has apparently irritated the U.S., which does not have "a more representative and democratic government" for that country. But the Karimov government can hardly feel safe because the situation has not stabilized. Besides, the relatives of the dead will not forget and forgive easily, and the problems that provoked the revolt will not be solved overnight.
Hence, the geopolitical situation in Central Asia cannot be seen as stable, especially in view of the growing Russia-West competition in the former Soviet Union as a whole.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.
