Vedomosti wrote that the European and American concerns' forecasts could well be justified.
In recent years, Airbus and Boeing have been fighting tooth and nail for global aircraft markets. In 2003, 57% of overall orders were placed with Airbus, and the company has retained the upper hand since.
But things are different in Russia. About 200 foreign aircraft, among them 144 Boeings and 43 Airbuses, are currently in use in the country.
The Europeans see Russia as a lucrative market. Airbus Senior Vice President Axel Krein said yesterday the company would have at least a 50% share of the Russian market by 2024, and Boeing and Russian aircraft makers would share the other 50%.
Airbus estimates Russian carriers will buy 620 new aircraft in the next 20 years, in addition to regional planes. The European manufacturer estimates that sales will then hit $49.6 billion and so the company is prepared to sell more than 300 liners worth about $20 billion to Russian airlines.
Boeing, however, will remain a formidable competitor. It intends to oust Airbus from Russia completely and monopolize the market, Craig Jones, a Boeing vice president who is responsible for sales in Russia, said yesterday. The company estimates Russia may need 822 long haul airliners by 2024, Vedomosti said.
Experts said both companies were probably right. Sergei Koltovich, the head of aircraft fleet planning at Aeroflot, Russia's leading carrier, said the giants would have more or less equal market shares in Russia.
Yelena Sakhnova, a United Financial Group expert, said local producers would retain a small market share. Sakhnova suggested Airbus and Boeing could each take 45% of the market, leaving the Russian aircraft industry with only 10%.
