MOSCOW, October 21 (RIA Novosti) - A second crisis wave in Russia is unlikely, and the economy could switch to sustainable growth as early as 2010, a presidential economic aide said on Wednesday.

Arkady Dvorkovich told an annual conference held by UBS in Moscow that economic activity in Russia would stay at a low level for several more months before the economy starts showing sustainable growth.

Dvorkovich said anti-crisis measures taken by the governments of Russia and other countries have contributed to positive changes in the global economy and increased demand for Russian commodities.

Russia's gross domestic product (GDP) increased 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in July-September 2009, showing growth for the first time since the second quarter of 2008, the Economics Ministry said on Tuesday.

"For the first time since the second quarter of 2008, GDP registered positive quarter-on-quarter dynamics. Net of seasonal factors, GDP grew 0.6% in the third quarter compared with the second quarter, or by annualized 2.4%," the ministry said.

Year-on-year, Russia's GDP declined 9.4% in the third quarter and 10.9% in the second quarter, the ministry said.

However, Russia's GDP decline decelerated to an estimated 8.6% in September, year-on-year. Net of seasonal factors, GDP grew 0.5% during the month, the ministry said.

Russian economics and finance officials said in September that the third quarter would see the start of Russia's exit from recession but added that it was still premature to consider the economic crisis over.

Central Bank First Deputy Chairman Alexei Ulyukayev said on Tuesday that Russia's 2009 inflation could be below 10.3% compared with the projected figure of 11%.