Russia's state statistics service registered a leap in inflation in early August, an indication that consumer price growth is likely to accelerate in the second half of the year and scorch the government's hopes for bringing inflation down to 6-7% in 2010, analysts told RIA Novosti on Thursday.

In addition to the drought, the worst in Russia in 130 years, there are also other grounds for inflation rates to pick up by the end of the year, but the final effect of abnormal weather conditions on Russia's economy will become obvious in the fall, the analysts said.

On Wednesday, Russia's statistics service registered an acceleration of weekly consumer price growth to 0.2% on August 3-9, the first in the last few months as the drought pushed up grain, flour and groats prices. Previously, weekly inflation rates had not exceeded 0.1%.

Russia's consumer price index has risen 5% since the start of the year, dealing a blow to the government's hopes of keeping inflation within 6-7% in 2010 compared with 8.8% registered in 2009 and 13.3% in 2008.

"With such rates, the government will have to revise its CPI forecast. From the outset, the government's forecast did not take into account the drought and its consequences. This is an obvious force majeure factor, which has to be reckoned with," Vladimir Bragin, an analyst with National Bank Trust, told RIA Novosti.

"We can say with confidence right now that annual inflation will not stay within 6% while some analysts predict that it will accelerate to 10% by the end of the year. As for our estimate, consumer price growth may hit 8-8.5% this year," he said.

Other analysts polled by RIA Novosti have not yet revised their 2010 inflation forecasts. In particular, Otkritie financial corporation has kept its forecast of consumer price growth this year at 7.5% and UniCredit Bank at 6.6%.

Bragin, however, said that any forecast had an element of uncertainty due to the absence of official data on the harvest and uncertainty about the government's measures to eliminate the consequences of natural disasters and restrain retailers hiking food prices.

This year's natural disasters will have their effect on the Russian economy at least until the next harvest, Bragin said.

"We are now receiving information that the government will be unable to sow winter crops in the fall as the land is too dry and the current situation may also affect the 2011 harvest, which means that the drought's effects will be felt for twelve to eighteen months," he said.

MOSCOW, August 12 (RIA Novosti)