The angry Western reaction to the guilty verdict of former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has triggered allegations that Ukraine's plans for rapprochement with Europe have come under threat. But analysts say it is highly unlikely that Tymoshenko's imprisonment would make Europe alienate Ukraine and therefore push it closer to Russia.
On Tuesday, Ukraine's leading opposition figure Tymoshenko was sentenced to seven years in prison for abuse of power in the signing of a gas deal with Russia in 2009, in a trial that the Ukrainian opposition, Western powers and Moscow described as "politically motivated."
As the verdict was announced, Brussels warned Kiev of "serious consequences" facing Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych over the imprisonment of his main political rival. The European Union's foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton said justice in Ukraine was being "applied selectively" to punish opposition leaders and former government officials.
Calling on the Ukrainian authorities to ensure an "impartial process" in any appeal in the case, Ashton warned that otherwise Kiev's relations with Europe, including its plans to sign an association agreement with the European Union by the end of the year, would face "profound implications."
But it is neither beneficial for Yanukovych nor for European leaders to make the issue more complicated, and they would try to find a compromise, experts say. Yanukovych has already made it clear that the court ruling is "not the final decision" and that it may be reviewed should Tymoshenko's defense file an appeal.
The jailed politician's lawyer said on Wednesday he planned to file the appeal next week. He also threatened to turn to the European Court of Human Rights should Ukrainian courts refuse to reverse Tymoshenko's verdict.
"I think this is the time when we will see the results of the Ukrainian-EU bargain," said Nikolai Petrov from the Carnegie Moscow Center. "Yanukovych has just stated his position, and we should expect some compromised decision soon."
Compromise possible?
Tymoshenko, who once symbolized Western hopes for a democratic Ukraine as she helped lead the 2004 Orange Revolution that brought pro-Western President Viktor Yushchenko to power, has been ordered to pay almost $200 million in compensation for losses caused to Ukrainian state energy company Naftogaz by the controversial gas deal with Russia.
Tuesday's verdict also effectively bars the ex-premier from participating in political life until 2015, which means she will not be able to challenge Yanukovych and his Party of Regions in next year's parliamentary elections and a 2015 presidential vote. By pressing for a long seven-year jail term for the ex-premier, Petrov said, the Ukrainian authorities created "space for retreat."
"Yanukovych's goal is to dismiss Yulia Vladimirovna [Tymoshenko] from the political stage at least for some time," the analyst said. "That's why he will be happy with any court decision that would stipulate a suspended sentence or restrict Tymoshenko's right to occupy official positions and participate in political life."
This means Yanukovych may agree that Tymoshenko's prison term is cut if not canceled, Petrov said.
The Ukrainian president has already attempted to ease Western criticism by pushing through a bill decriminalizing charges brought against Tymoshenko. Although the bill has been rejected by Ukrainian lawmakers, another similar attempt by Yanukovych still remains an option, analysts say.
Andrew Wilson from the European Council on Foreign Relations, a London-based pan-European think-tank, said the Ukrainian authorities got "quite a consistent message from across the EU" that the trial put the Ukrainian-EU association agreement in danger.
"Most of what was said was said in private, but it was being spun as a potential compromise, a messy compromise, probably this idea of decriminalization, whether or not Tymoshenko was convicted, the criminal code could be changed so that after she was charged it would no longer be an offense," he said.
"Most people in the EU were expecting that compromise. Maybe the Ukrainians were just inept, and maybe planning to put other elements of that compromise in place, but unless they do it pretty quick it can't help but damage prospects for the agreement," Wilson added.
In late September, when Tymoshenko's trial was in its final stage, European nations said they were ready to finalize negotiations with Ukraine on its association with the EU by the time of the EU-Ukraine summit in December 2011. The statement came during the EU's Eastern Partnership summit in Warsaw.
But since the Ukrainian authorities "haven't delivered on any compromise," Wilson said, there are differences in the EU about whether to freeze the agreement or rely on the fact that it will probably not be ratified by all parliaments of European member states.
"If this is all we have, a conviction, no appeal - though there will probably be one - then there can't be an agreement - full stop," he added.
But many analysts believe the situation will not come to that point, and the Ukrainian authorities will roll back on Tymoshenko's sentence. The issue will probably top the agenda during Yanukovych's visit to Brussels slated for next week.
"It's in Ukraine's long-term interest [for] a closer association with the European Union," said Fraser Cameron, the director of the Belgium-based EU-Russia Centre.
Yanukovych "has already hinted that there might be a change in the talks, so I certainly see the revision of the verdict quite soon," he said, adding that the EU will be "putting a lot of pressure on Ukraine" until the compromise is reached.
Tymoshenko's trial is likely to delay the Ukrainian-EU association process, he said, "but this depends on how the Ukrainian authorities will react."
Moscow keeps eyes open
Alexander Rahr, who heads the Berthold Beitz Center at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), said he believed Europe will try to meet Ukraine halfway to avoid pushing it towards Moscow, who has long been working to keep Kiev in its orbit, most recently by persuading its southern neighbor to join the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.
"They may warn that the signing of this important document on the free trade zone could be delayed, but at the same time, Europe does not want Ukraine to leave it for the Customs Union," Rahr said. He said he believed the agreement between Ukraine and the EU will be signed, but its ratification by European parliaments will take time and require further concessions from Kiev.
But once the agreement is signed, Rahr said it would become a "political signal" that would introduce "new rules" into Kiev's relations with the West.
It is unlikely, however, that Moscow will stand aside if its influence on the former Soviet ally begins to fade.
Russian lawmaker Konstantin Zatulin, a member of a parliamentary committee in charge of relations with the former Soviet states, told the Rosbalt news agency on Tuesday that "it would be unwise" not to turn Ukraine's row with the West "to our advantage."
Moscow should "use this moment to increase our efforts" to persuade Ukraine to join the Customs Union, as well as to promote the Eurasian Union, an integration project put forward by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in the wake of Tymoshenko's trial last week, he said.
When asked by journalists to comment on the verdict, Putin said on Tuesday he did not understand why Tymoshenko was found guilty and handed down a seven-year prison sentence, warning that it was "dangerous" and "counterproductive" to question existing gas agreements between Russia and Ukraine.
Ukraine has long been trying to persuade Moscow to review the 2009 contract with Gazprom pushed through by Tymoshenko, which Kiev now says is detrimental to Ukraine's economic interests. The jailed ex-premier maintains that the deal saved Ukraine and Europe from a major energy crisis that occurred when Russia briefly stopped fuel supplies to Ukraine in January 2009, in response to Kiev's accumulated debt. About 80 percent of Russia's gas exports to Europe are transited through Ukraine.
In his comments, Putin also noted that it would be "more beneficial" for Ukraine's economy to combine efforts with Russia on integration projects.
Talks 'should continue'
Putin's comments came as a response to criticism from both Ukrainian pro-government and opposition politicians of his plans to develop the Customs Union and common economic space between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan into a future Eurasian Union with former Soviet countries. Ukrainian lawmakers view the proposal as an attempt by Putin to revive the Soviet Union and reestablish Russian control over its southern neighbor.
Europeans do not take Putin's latest ambitious plans seriously, Rahr says, yet Ukraine has a reason to believe that the EU leaders would try not to miss an opportunity to make the most of their recent rapprochement with Ukraine.
In an interview with Euronews on Tuesday, European Parliament President Jerzy Buzek said Tymoshenko's verdict "will certainly be one of the obstacles in our direct contacts and certainly will have a negative impact on our negotiations" with Ukraine.
"But I am sure," he added, "that we should continue our negotiations on the association agreement. We should not punish the Ukrainian people."
