The Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Adm. Mike Mullen, has virtually completed his four-day visit to China that started on July 10. He will visit Chinese military installations in Shandong and Zhejiang, but the political portion of the trip is over, and China has little reason to be happy about the visit.
The big picture
There was at least one peculiar item on Mullen's Beijing agenda: a visit to the headquarters of China's Second Artillery Corps, a.k.a., its strategic missile forces. These are the 200-250 units capable of reaching American shores. The arsenal is comparable to French and British counterparts but not yet at the level of Russia or the U.S.
Former Defense Secretary Robert Gates also visited the headquarters last spring, so Mullen's visit was not exactly sensational. Beijing subsequently suspended relations with the Pentagon after a row over the sales of American arms to Taiwan and the Dalai Lama's visit to Washington. However, China's strictly ritual protest concealed a more serious divide when the Obama administration's unofficial offer to "rule the world together" met with a brusque refusal from Beijing and an icy turn in overall relations.
Now, the United States has again softened its policy towards China, especially after the January visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao. Mullen's trip to China is part of this process. The admiral is a charismatic man with a charming smile. Speaking at the Beijing-based Renmin University of China, he delivered the sort of rhetoric that was required of him under the circumstances: "China and the United States not only share the Pacific Ocean, but potentially have a bright future together." He added that the two countries are facing common challenges and have common interests in Asia as well as globally. Moreover, "China's rise does not imply the United States' decline," Mullen said, implying that the two countries should expand military dialogue "as China grows more and more powerful and influential."
All these ideas comply with the spirit of the January dialogues between Obama and Hu, who agreed not to go to extremes. After all, no other two countries share such close economic ties, not to mention that the U.S. debt to China has reached $1.16 trillion.
But that's just the big picture. The devil, it seems, is in the details.
A blow to the heart
What are U.S.-Chinese military contacts that are to be developed as a result of Mullen's visit? They boil down to the same visits, seminars, and observations of military exercises. At one point, the two sides held joint rescue operations at sea. In essence, nothing special. But there was something else that made the visit remarkable: namely, the United States' more or less open attempts to support other Asian countries that bear grudges against Beijing.
Despite its name, the South China Sea doesn't belong only to China. The Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Malaysia also have territorial claims to the 200 mile wide economic zone, which includes coastlines, islands, and important maritime trade routes - all of them the subject of decades of dispute.
Until recently, however, the South China Sea was viewed as an international model of how to approach a sensitive territorial issue - there were no major conflicts for 10 to 15 years; every country simply adopted declarations on the rules of conduct. Then, two years ago, Washington got involved in the issue. Speaking at the ASEAN Regional Forum on Security in Hanoi, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton presented a new policy that boiled down to the following advice: if you have problems with China, call us. This year, the hitherto peaceful sea became a venue for conflicts between China and its neighbors as well as for U.S. naval drills with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and even Vietnam. Tensions in the region have never been higher.
For China, it is a blow to the heart. Although it is now an important power in Africa, Latin America, and Europe, it made its first foray onto the global stage in the 1990s when it saved Southeast Asia from an impending financial meltdown. Beijing's dominance in the region has become axiomatic, especially considering that its trade with these countries has been growing at an unprecedented rate. In contrast, given their history, the sheer travesty of U.S.-Vietnamese exercises no doubt added salt to the wound.
Another regional forum will be held in Bali, Indonesia, next week. The Russian foreign minister will attend it according to tradition. No doubt, the forum will concentrate on the South China Sea. And, judging by Mullen's visit, the United States is not going to back down from its new policy.
There is still a chance
No doubt, Washington is pursuing a desperate policy in Asia. The Obama administration has devoted more attention to the Pacific than any other administration for the last 20 to 30 years. It is well aware of the lessons of history: it is the Pacific rather than the Atlantic that forms the foundation of American economic might.
China's challenge to that dominance is clear - in a decade or two, its economy will match that of the U.S., minus the internal debt. This is a modest Chinese estimate. Some European analysts predict that two economies could meet in seven to eight years. It won't matter that China will be poorer than the United States per capita. What matters is that it will be able to allocate the same amount of money to its military.
"Isn't this too heavy a burden for the American taxpayer?" Gen. Chen Bingde, Mullen's Chinese counterpart, asked sympathetically at a news conference. At any rate, by U.S. estimates, total U.S. and Chinese military expenses are now at $650 billion and $95 billion, respectively. In the future, U.S. spending is expected to drop.
Today, China does not have a fleet of aircraft carriers like the United States. This year, it will launch the aircraft carrier Shi Lang - formerly, the Soviet Varyag, which the Ukrainians sold to Beijing as scrap. China will commission two similar ships and two nuclear-powered aircraft carriers between 2015 and 2020 - exactly the timeframe in which the Chinese economy is expected to overtake the U.S., should nothing go wrong. They will be deployed in the southern seas, including the Indian Ocean.
Meanwhile, as long as the United States maintains its edge in the Pacific, it will take full advantage of it, no matter what Mullen may have negotiated in Beijing.
The views expressed in this article are the author's and may not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
