Vedomosti, Kommersant

Moscow gets unpleasant surprise from ally

Kyrgyzstan's authorities have allowed the United States to set up a transit cargo center at Manas international airport instead of ordering the U.S. base to leave the country. The decision has come as an unwelcome surprise for Russia.

The U.S. needs a Kyrgyz base for delivering supplies to NATO troops in Afghanistan. Russia should presumably be interested in a positive completion of the operation, but its recent diplomatic moves indicate that the Kremlin fears that the Americans, if they set up a base in the south, will snatch Russia's influence there and threaten its border.

Kyrgyzstan started closing the U.S. base in the spring of 2009, after Moscow promised it a $2 billion loan and $150 million in assistance for the completion of the Kambaratin hydropower plant. The republic's parliament denounced the agreement with the U.S. and set the date for the pullout.

It could be Russia's attempt to strengthen its positions in the region and a signal to the United States, indicating that it should talk and discuss prices with Moscow. However, the U.S. will stay in Kyrgyzstan, even though with a different status. This is a heavy blow to Russia's prestige and purse.

Worse still, this is not the first such blow and Kyrgyzstan is not the first country that delivered it.

Turkmenistan cannot decide what it wants - first it promises to sell its gas to Russia's Gazprom, but then changes its mind and starts talks with China and Europe, where it could send its gas via the planned Nabucco pipeline.

Belarus has not recognized the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, although Moscow had granted loans and supplied cheap gas to it. Neither is President Alexander Lukashenko eager to turn over Belarusian enterprises to Russia.

The Russian diplomacy of swaps, promises and complicated combinations of maneuvers is too smart for its own good. Russia's neighbors have long known that they do not need to fulfill informal promises because Russia will come with a "carrot" to ask for something, again unofficially, promising money for the recognition of Abkhazia, or a gas pipeline, or something else.

Moscow has said it will give a befitting reply to Kyrgyzstan, but it still hopes a scandal can be avoided.

According to Konstantin Zatulin, deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on the CIS Affairs, the issue of the U.S. military presence in Central Asia could be coordinated at the July 7 talks between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev and U.S. President Barack Obama, but only if the U.S. promises to make concessions regarding the anti-missile shield in Eastern Europe or the admission of Ukraine and Georgia to NATO.

Gazeta.ru

Russia advocates new European security treaty

On Tuesday Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov addressed a conference of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Vienna and elaborated on Moscow's proposals for a new legally binding European security treaty.

The new proposals imply that NATO's actions in Europe should not run counter to Russian interests, and that the United States should not deploy missile-defense elements and military bases in third countries.

Analysts say the proposals are just an idea, and the Russian Foreign Ministry admits that no documents have been drafted to date.

On June 5, 2008, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev called for a new EU-U.S.-Russia security treaty in a conciliatory speech in Berlin. Analysts say Russian leaders are trying to prove that Cold War-era institutions no longer match present-day realities.

Timofei Bordachyov, head of the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies, said no one in Europe and the United States wanted to hear about a new treaty a year ago, shortly before the August 2008 Russian-Georgian conflict.

"Moscow now has a chance to propose a major international document for the first time in post-Soviet history," he said.

The Russian Foreign Ministry said Lavrov's proposals were just a declaration. "In the past, Russia has already voiced its ideas, heard the proposals of other countries and made specific changes," said Igor Lyakin-Frolov, deputy director of the Ministry's information and press department.

He said the drafting of the treaty was a difficult process, and that a summit making it possible to discuss the future treaty in greater detail could be held next year.

Russia would like the June 27 informal meeting of OSCE foreign ministers, which will also involve the EU, NATO, the Collective Security Treaty Organization and CIS representatives, to approve this idea.

Analysts say the talks may drag on for years. "Europe is not the most dangerous place on this planet," said Alexander Konovalov, president of the Institute for Strategic Assessments.
He said the international community would face even more important issues in the future.

Pavel Zolotaryov, deputy director at the Institute of U.S. and Canada Studies, said Russia's partners might object to the multilateral format advocated by it, because "Western countries do not want to deviate from the OSCE format."

RBC Daily, Vedomosti

Million mobile handsets get stuck at customs

About one million mobile phones worth tens of millions of euros have accumulated in warehouses at customs terminals. If the problem is not resolved soon, Russia's mobile equipment retail market will be back to predominantly "gray" supplies, market players say.

The Federal Customs Service has changed the rules for inspecting mobile handsets imported into Russia, said Eldar Murtazin, chief analyst at Mobile Research Group. Customs officers now check the content of each box, matching it with documents presented by the distributor or producer, rather than clearing the whole batch.

Murtazin hinted that the customs authorities were scared into this overly meticulous attitude by the latest public criticism from Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, who expressed dissatisfaction over the never-ending inflow of counterfeit and contraband goods.

As a result, a total of one million mobile handsets, including 400,000-500,000 Nokia phones, 300,000-420,000 Samsungs and 60,000-80,000 Sony Ericssons have been stuck at Moscow's Domodedovo and Sheremetyevo terminals since last Sunday, the day the new customs rules took effect.

If this goes on even until next week, retail prices will surge, Murtazin warned.
Until recently, they picked random samples from each batch for inspection, said Nokia spokesperson Viktoria Yeremina. "The new instruction is practically impossible, because there are only a few customs officers responsible for these checks at Moscow air terminals.

There have been no deliveries at all over the past few days. The Customs Service told us the instruction was optional, but in reality they are physically inspecting each and every box," added a source from another major mobile equipment manufacturer.

Both producers and retailers have some reserve stock which could last them for a short while, but they cannot be stretched indefinitely, said Alexander Malis, president of the Euroset chain. "The shortage of stock will certainly affect pricing policies and the business in general," he added.

Anton Guskov, PR director at the Association of trading companies and manufacturers of consumer electronic and computer equipment (RATEK), said the move would send mobile phone prices up, and could prod customers to buying illegally imported equipment.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta

Russians stop buying, tighten belts

Russians are preparing for a long-term saving period, although the authorities claim the crisis will end soon. According to market researcher Nielsen Company, 78% of Russians are willing to postpone their purchases until a better time.

Analysts say the situation will continue to deteriorate.

The negative trend persists in terms of "willingness to spend," Nielsen researchers said. The number of skeptics in Russia has grown to 73% in March from 67% in February.

"Russians have prepared themselves for a long-term saving mode," said the managing director of Nielsen Russia, Dwight Watson.

Despite the negative mood, analysts polled by the Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily say the crisis has not yet had any social impact on Russians.

However, Yevgeny Gontmakher, deputy director of the Moscow-based Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), said Russians would have to "tighten their belts" soon.

"In the medium to short term, willingness to spend will stabilize at 80%-82%. For the remaining part of the population, such as top managers of large and medium-sized corporations, lawyers, etc., the crisis has no meaning," the analyst said.

Gontmakher said it is unclear whether Russians are talking about unwillingness to spend on a new car or expensive household appliances, or their growing inability to buy groceries or pay utility fees.

Andrei Chernyavsky, an analyst with 2K Audit Business Consulting, said: "Russians have grown used to new conditions and learned to form their budgets and plan their expenses accordingly. But their personal incomes keep decreasing, the salaries are shrinking, and many people are losing their jobs."

According to the Ministry of Health and Social Development, the number of the registered unemployed began rising again after a slight fall.

There are 10 million unemployed in Russia taking into account the unregistered jobless, Chernyavsky said. If the number continues to grow, retail and all related sectors will be hit by the growing decline in Russians' purchasing ability.

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