What the Russian papers say

MOSCOW, October 9 (RIA Novosti) Russia's nuclear doctrine will not get tougher - Defense Ministry source / China's, Russia's parties in power share anti-crisis experience / Fugitive Russian oligarch asks Putin for permission to return home / LUKoil ready to develop West Qurna-1 on Iraq's terms /

Vedomosti

Russia's nuclear doctrine will not get tougher - Defense Ministry source

The new concept for Russia's use of nuclear weapons, now under consideration in the Security Council, will not radically differ from the old one and is unlikely to provide for preventive strikes.

According to Nikolai Patrushev, the organization's secretary, the president will adopt the new doctrine late this or early next year. The document, he promises, will be open.

Anatoly Dyakov, director of the Center for Disarmament Studies at the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, says that the notion of the "preventive strike" differs from the notion of the "first use of nuclear weapons." The Soviet Union in the past, like China now, declared it would not be the first to use nuclear weapons. But Russia (like all other nuclear nations except China) now allows for the first use of weapons. Russia may resort to such use if its security is threatened with an attack involving both nuclear and conventional arms. A preventive strike is one that is dealt before the attack is made. The possibility of preventive strikes was first declared by the administration of George Bush Jr., but Barack Obama's administration is certain to review this postulate. If Russia adopts the preventive-strike doctrine, it will copycat Bush's doctrine, and take a step in the wrong direction, the analyst says.

A source in the president's administration says that the doctrine is now being fleshed out in the Security Council and the head of state will have final say on its wording.

One need not expect any radical or tough changes in Russia's nuclear doctrine amid ongoing talks with the United States on a new treaty to limit strategic offensive arms, warns a source in the Defense Ministry. New ceilings on delivery vehicles and warheads to be fixed in the new treaty will certainly call for changes in nuclear planning, but are unlikely to produce substantial shifts in the political doctrine of nuclear deterrence, the source believes.

General Makhmut Gareyev, president of the Academy of Military Science and a member of the Security Council's Scientific Council, does not expect a radicalization of the doctrine, either. According to him, the discussion of the new doctrine resulted in leaving the issues of using nuclear weapons unchanged from the current doctrine.

Kommersant

China's, Russia's parties in power share anti-crisis experience

The formal focus of a two-day forum between United Russia and China's Communist Party is cooperation between the two countries' borderline regions. However, the actual agenda of the inter-party Russian-Chinese forum in the Chinese town of Suifenhe is much broader. United Russia members will spend two days studying their Chinese counterparts' experience in building a political system dominated by one political party. United Russia's interest in the Chinese Communists' experience has been triggered by the economic downturn.

The two parties have sponsored a series of closed-door conferences over the past few years, inviting economists and political analysts to exchange their experience in building regulated democracies. The essence of China's experience is formulated in a white paper "China's Political Party System" published by the State Council: "The CPC rules the country and the democratic parties participate in state affairs according to law, instead of ruling the country in turn. The multi-party cooperation system replaces confrontation and contention with cooperation and consultation, effectively avoiding political instability and frequent changes of regime resulting from discord among political parties, thus reducing internal frictions of the society to the maximum, and safeguarding social and political stability and solidarity."

In fact, several points made by Hu Jintao in his speech at the 17th CPC congress were later reflected in Russia's Strategy until 2020, and formed the foundation of United Russia's parliamentary campaign in December 2007.

"China has continued growth even during the recession, remaining one of the world's most dynamic economies," said Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the State Duma committee on international affairs and head of the Russian delegation to PACE, adding that the country's political system certainly contributed to this booming growth.

In his opinion, Chinese experience should be taken into account while drawing up bailout strategies: "Western examples of democracy should not be idealized; the Chinese model does have some obvious advantages."

Analysts believe that Russia and China are indeed facing some similar problems due to the economic downturn, primarily social ones. Both countries have many single-industry towns, which developed around major industrial facilities currently unprofitable. As in Russia, Beijing began by issuing state loans to such companies, but social unrest continued.

Therefore, one of the latest anti-crisis policies approved by the September plenary of the CPC's Central Committee was giving more powers to armed people's police, such as "curbing riots and mass violence."

Gazeta.ru

Fugitive Russian oligarch asks Putin for permission to return home

It appears that Vladimir Gusinsky, one of the most notorious Russian magnates of the 1990s, who was stripped of his main media assets and forced by the then President Vladimir Putin to leave the country in the summer of 2001, has respected his persecutor very much all this time and believes that he has done much good.

The fugitive oligarch told Israeli newspaper The Marker that he was ready to return to Russia if Putin invited him home.

While doing business in Russia in the 1990s, Gusinsky founded the Media-Most holding that included Most Bank, the NTV channel, the newspaper Segodnya and the Itogi magazine.

Gusinsky, who holds dual Israeli and Spanish citizenship, now lives in the United States.

The interview dispels the myth of noble idealists who fought Putin and defended democratic gains of the 1990s.

Gusinsky was either playing it sly at that time or is overdoing it today. Anyway, it is nothing personal, only business.

Gusinsky's desire to fully reinstate his business in Russia is understandable because Putin-era capitalists are getting rich at a breathtaking pace and on a grand scale. Naturally, Gusinsky wants to reoccupy his seat at the table, even at the edge, if possible.

Gusinsky was probably influenced by the incumbent Israeli leaders who need greater mutual understanding with the Kremlin on the sensitive issue of arms supplies to the Middle East.

Barring the motives of Gusinsky's interview, he has displayed extremely profound goodwill toward Putin and his government. Gusinsky probably thinks that he has certain chances of rejoining the game if Putin vouches for him.

No matter whether specific criminal cases remain open or not, "it is up to the government to decide whether you should return or not. This is something normal."

This is a real diagnosis highlighting the state of Russia's judiciary system, law and order. All "defectors" who realize that the Russian government comprises tough and enterprising economic managers will have to keep this in mind.

"Gusinsky should not have done this. He won't buy a return ticket home, but the reputation risks are very high," said a Russian banker who knows him.

A Russian businessman who was forced by the Prosecutor General's Office to leave Russia several years ago agreed. "There is no way back for either Gusinsky, or any of us under this government," he said.

RBC Daily

LUKoil ready to develop West Qurna-1 on Iraq's terms

Russia's largest private oil producer LUKoil is prepared to develop the West Qurna Stage-1 oilfield jointly with U.S. ConocoPhillips on Iraq's terms. Earlier, Vagit Alekperov's company said the oil purchase terms proposed by Iraq were unacceptable.

Analysts say the company's change of mood is down to geopolitical factors.

Iraq is now conducting a tender for the development of its deposits. The group of 30 top oil producers that have applied for participation includes Russia's Gazprom Neft, the oil unit of gas export monopoly Gazprom, and LUKoil.

However, the Iraqi authorities have declared the tender for the West Qurna-1 project invalid after the bulk of applicants withdrew because Iraq set very low oil purchase prices.

Valery Nesterov, an analyst with the Troika Dialog investment company, said that LUKoil and ConocoPhillips, which pledged to produce 1.5 million barrels per day at West Qurna-1, asked for an additional $6.50 per barrel produced above the plan. Iraq insisted that it could pay only $1.90-$2.30.

Last summer, LUKoil said it would participate in the Iraqi project only if Baghdad changed the contractual terms that do not suit it.

On Thursday the LUKoil president expressed hope that "direct talks on this project will begin in mid-October." Alekperov said his company changed its opinion after thoroughly analyzing the project's economic aspects.

But Maxim Shein, chief analyst at Broker Credit Service, believes LUKoil was probably convinced to change its view by its American partner.

"The United States has serious influence in Iraq, and LUKoil was likely waiting for ConocoPhillips to take the decision," Shein said.

The profitability of the companies participating in the project on Iraq's terms will be low, Nesterov said. On the other hand, LUKoil and Conoco may use the project to create the foundation for their further expansion in the region.

Vitaly Gromadin, an analyst at the Arbat Capital asset management company, said investment in West Qurna-1 could reach $3 billion.

West Qurna is believed to hold between 6 billion and 20 billion barrels of oil and may have a production potential of 1 million barrels per day.

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