What the Russian papers say

MOSCOW, October 23 (RIA Novosti) Tajikistan will not get money from Russia for military base / Asia will determine new global balance of power - expert / Russia tries to speed up new gas pipelines bypassing transit countries / Russia to sell gold, buy diamonds to help miner Alrosa

Kommersant, Vedomosti

Tajikistan will not get money from Russia for military base

Two days of closed meetings with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in Moscow have convinced Tajik President Emomali Rahmon to withdraw the demand for a $307 million annual payment for Russia's use of a military base in Tajikistan.

After the official talks in the Kremlin, the guest did not mention to the press the plans of the Tajik side to receive rent from Russia for the use of the base. Nor did he mention his dissatisfaction with Russian companies' slow realization of energy projects in his country. On the contrary, he hinted that relations with Russia were better than ever.

Russian Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov spoke about the talks in greater detail. He said the issue of payment for Russia's 201st base in Tajikistan was not on the agenda, at least until 2014 when the agreement governing the deployment of the base expires.

The minister said Russia and Tajikistan were already drafting a new agreement. "The base will either work in the same regime, or for money," Serdyukov said. "However, it is unclear how we will calculate payment, if at all."

He did not say which arguments had convinced Tajikistan not to demand payment for the Russian base for the next five years. A source close to the Russian Defense Ministry said one of the reasons was Russia's promise to supply light and small arms and munitions to Tajikistan. Most importantly, Tajikistan has no aces in its argument with Russia, because the United States so far does not intend to deploy its base there.

A source in the Russian delegation said that President Rahmon's decision was above all influenced by the situation in neighboring Afghanistan, where Hamid Karzai, who announced his victory with 54% of the vote in elections last month, has yielded to Western pressure and announced the need for a runoff for the sake of ensuring peace and stability in his nascent and war-torn democracy.

"Parliamentary elections are scheduled in Tajikistan in winter. Looking at the situation in Afghanistan, Rahmon has decided not to complicate relations with Russia now," the source said.

Gazeta.ru

Asia will determine new global balance of power - expert

The recent booming growth in China as well as other fundamental changes in the global balance of power, which has been gradually shifting toward Asia since the Cold War ended, have returned the Asia-Pacific region to the center of America's attention, writes Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the Moscow-based magazine Russia in Global Affairs.

President Barack Obama's administration, desperately trying to adjust the country's foreign policy to deal with a whole range of crises in different parts of the world, has found itself in a predicament - it can no longer rely on its traditional allies, in Europe or in the Middle East.

Now it is relations between the United States and Japan that are experiencing turbulence.

The new prime minister of Japan, Yukio Hatoyama, is determined to work out more "equitable" relations with the United States. How noticeably antiseptic was the statement of a Japanese diplomat that although greatly valuing its alliance with Washington, Japan can nonetheless not ignore the global changes currently underway.

Japan obviously would not welcome a prospect of turning into a U.S. outpost in a potential conflict with China, which is already playing a significant role in global economics and politics.

Whereas America is in general concerned over its role in the Asia-Pacific Region, which is important for its global influence, Japan is sandwiched between to regional processes. On the one hand, North Korea is putting on its nuclear-missile shows mainly for Tokyo's sake, and on the other, China's growing into East Asia's unchallenged economic and potential military leader, which is bound to make Tokyo's relations with Beijing unpredictable.

These are the underlying reasons for Hatoyama's statements regarding East-Asian brotherhood, including China, Japan and Korea, but excluding the United States. Although as much an abstract idea as equitable rights with the United States, the direction of his thinking is clear.

Above all, what is happening means the start of a difficult reconfiguration of relations in the Asia-Pacific Region in accordance with China's new role. However, Beijing is making every effort to keep its immediate plans secret for the time being, so other players are forced to maneuver blindly in the hope of occupying an advantageous position in the future balance of power.

Russia's own role is so far not very pronounced in this new and complex game, although Moscow has announced plans to increase its presence in the Asia Pacific Region. The outcome of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's visit to Beijing rather suggests Moscow is willing to follow while China calls the tune, Lukyanov concludes.

Vedomosti, Kommersant, Nezavisimaya Gazeta

Russia tries to speed up new gas pipelines bypassing transit countries

The South Stream gas pipeline project could go onstream even before Nord Stream, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin says. Comparing the two projects, either the former will be completed well ahead of schedule, or the latter will be significantly delayed.

The Nord Stream pipeline across the Baltic Sea and the South Stream pipeline across the Black Sea are two ambitious political projects led by Russian energy giant Gazprom, estimated at billions of dollars. The former is to be commissioned in September 2011, while the latter's schedule is still in the works, as it only started in 2007. Even so, this project "has every chance" of being implemented first, the Russian prime minister told his Italian counterpart, Silvio Berlusconi, on Thursday. "This is a challenge that we must take," echoed Berlusconi.

Gazprom's official spokesman did not say whether the monopoly was willing to accept the challenge. But he sounded confident that the two prime ministers were joking, as the situation suggested. "They could not have been serious," he told the Vedomosti daily.

South Stream has no schedule as yet. Its feasibility study will only be completed in 2010. Construction could start in late 2010, Eni CEO Paolo Scaroni said a few days ago. The Italian utility is one of the major investors in South Stream.

Gazprom plans to commission the whole transportation system bypassing traditional gas transit countries in 2015. However, Putin's statement regarding commissioning South Stream before Nord Stream suggests that the Black Sea pipeline will have to be laid in less than nine months. On the other hand, the prime minister's words could be interpretated another way: Nord Stream, which has so far been given clearance by only one of the five transit countries, will be delayed for so long that South Stream will indeed begin operation sooner.

Mikhail Korchemkin, director of the East European Gas Analysis consultancy, estimated that South Stream will cost Gazprom about $45 billion, which could severely hit the monopoly's own profitability.

Mikhail Krutikhin, a partner in Moscow's RusEnergy Consulting, is confident that Russia is simply being used by its partners: "Turkey's permit for gelological exploration is not the same as permit to build the pipeline. Moreover, Turkey's permission was given upon several conditions: Moscow had to join the Samsum-Ceyhan project, which is absolutely disadvantageous for Russia, abandon the take-or-pay requirement in gas contracts and fines for failure to take the stipulated amount of gas."

Nezavisimaya Gazeta

Russia to sell gold, buy diamonds to help miner Alrosa

Russia's state depository for precious metals and stones, Gokhran, plans to sell a large amount of gold abroad by the end of 2009. Some analysts say the Finance Ministry needs the money to buy a large batch of Yakutian diamonds to save state diamond miner Alrosa from bankruptcy.

An anonymous source said the decision to sell gold through the state jewelry sales monopoly, Almazyuvelirexport, had been taken, but refused to specify on the amount and the exact timing of the deal.

This is the first time since the Soviet era that Gokhran will have sold so much gold abroad. Russia has sold some gold before, but always insignificant amounts - not more than several hundred kilograms. This time, however, it plans to sell about 45 metric tons of gold worth 44.4 billion rubles ($1.5 billion).

The Finance Ministry has not confirmed or denied the information or said why it needs the money. Independent analysts say Gokhran needs additional funds to save Alrosa, which has been badly hit by slumping prices on the global diamond market.

Since December last year, Russian state diamond miner Alrosa, which has a 25% global market share and produced $2.33 billion worth of diamonds last year, has been selling diamonds only to Gokhran, which was allocated 35 billion rubles ($1.2 billion) of federal funds for this purpose in 2009.

The government, which owns a controlling stake in Alrosa, believes that it must ensure restructuring of the miner's $3.6 billion debt and compensate the $1 billion loss it sustained last year.

Sergei Aleksashenko, ex-first deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Russia, said the sale of gold to save Alrosa was quite possible.

But Mikhail Delyagin, director of the Institute of Globalization, said the decision is illogical because there are over 5 trillion rubles ($172 billion) in sovereign funds and on the Central Bank deposits. "Gold prices can grow or fall, but gold is still more reliable than the notes we will receive for selling it," Delyagin said.

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