MOSCOW, October 26 (RIA Novosti) Yushchenko will go, but old problems will plague Russian-Ukrainian ties / President dispels opposition's doubts over legality of polls / Turkmenistan, Russia building gas pipelines to China / French automobile manufacturer stakes on Russia /
Kommersant
Yushchenko will go, but old problems will plague Russian-Ukrainian ties
Russian officials and media are observing the start of the presidential campaign in Ukraine with an unusual calm, nothing like the frenzy of five years ago. This attitude is easy to interpret - Ukraine is no longer as serious a challenge for Moscow as it used to be, said Arkady Moshes, head of the Russian program at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
Today, even the most consistent optimists would not dare forecast the country's fast and impressive economic growth or the emergence of an effective political and legal system out of thin air, which could prove Ukraine's "electoral democracy" more sustainable than Russia's "vertical of power," the analyst writes.
Ukraine's accession to NATO or the EU has been suspended for the foreseeable future. And, most importantly, Viktor Yushchenko is likely to leave office (without naming a successor) - a president whose very looks reminded the public of Russia's most flagrant foreign-policy failure of the past few years. However, once Russia's euphoria at being rid of Yushchenko subsides, the old issues plaguing bilateral relations will be back into the spotlight - gas, the Black Sea Fleet, and the Russian language.
Whoever becomes its new president, Ukraine will never drop its plans to modernize its gas pipeline system. Moreover, the country will prefer doing it with Western money, because Western loans bear no risk of losing control over its property. Russia, on the other hand, will never drop plans to build bypasses.
By the end of the next presidential term, Ukraine must have a clear vision of whether or not Russia's Black sea Fleet should remain in Sevastopol after 2017, and this vision should also be legally documented, Moshes writes.
The new president will either have to assume a hard-line position and demand that Russia pull out of Sevastopol, or to initiate the process of amending the Ukrainian constitution so as to allow for hosting foreign military bases. It is impossible to tell now which scenario will prove better from the domestic-policy perspective.
It is equally difficult to imagine that the guarantor of the constitution, which stipulates Ukrainian as the official language, would agree to amend the country's education system. The current system is slowly but surely deepening the gap between Russian and Ukrainian speakers.
Therefore, the change of tone expected in the bilateral dialogue could prove temporary, the analyst concludes.
Vremya Novostei
President dispels opposition's doubts over legality of polls
On Saturday, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev confirmed his status as the Constitution's guarantor, after the opposition, which is discontent with the results of the October 11 regional elections, reminded him of this status throughout last week.
The pro-Kremlin United Russia party scored a landslide victory during the elections all over Russia from Moscow to the Tuva Republic in East Siberia.
President Medvedev met with representatives of parties from the State Duma, the lower house of parliament, and hinted that he did not plan to agree with the opposition's opinion or to revise election results.
After the meeting, some analysts said the demarche of three parliamentary parties had partially accomplished its objective.
Alexei Makarkin, deputy general director of the Center of Political Technologies:
"Although the incident regarding the parliamentary opposition's protest has now been settled, the relevant conclusions will be made. But the format of such conclusions remains unclear. Naturally, the Kremlin cannot annul election results and make concessions because the opposition would otherwise start leaving the Duma every week. However, it would not be enough to merely tell the opposition to take its case to court. Consequently, an intermediate option was chosen. Election returns will not be annulled. The Kremlin has decided to tell the opposition that the subsequent election practice can change. The opposition, which realizes that it has lost these elections, struggled to achieve greater respect, rather than victory."
Georgy Satarov, president of the Indem Foundation, a Moscow think-tank:
"I was deeply impressed by the president's statement about legal methods for contesting election results. Somehow he did not mention legal election methods, the main issue at stake."
Dmitry Oreshkin, an independent political analyst:
"Although tactical aspects of the incident involving the so-called opposition's protest have been settled, this does not concern its strategic long-term implications. Most importantly, the public has received the impression that the elections were rigged. The people who have suspected this before are now convinced this is true. Public opinion has changed, and this is the most important aspect. The same thing will happen during the upcoming elections scheduled for next spring because United Russia cannot collect enough votes without election-rigging. However, people have learned to compare statistics. The Internet has mastered election-assessment methods. And a massive groundswell is now underway."
Vedomosti
Turkmenistan, Russia building gas pipelines to China
Turkmenistan is completing the construction of its part of a pipeline that will deliver Central Asian natural gas to China. Analysts are divided over the project's potential influence on Russia's interests.
Turkmenistan's state-run gas company, Turkmengaz, has announced that the last surface joints of the gas pipeline running from Turkmenistan to China via Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan have been welded. It is now preparing to test the pipeline.
The 7,000-km (4,350-mile) pipeline, with an annual capacity of up to 40 billion cubic meters of natural gas, is to be commissioned in the middle of December. The 188-km (117-mile) Turkmen part of the pipeline, built by Russia's Stroytransgaz, connected the Malai deposit to a gas metering station on the border with Uzbekistan.
The Kazakh part of the pipeline will be commissioned in early December, said a representative of the Kazakh state gas transit company, Kaztransgaz.
Forty billion cubic meters of gas is a substantial amount for China and the first gas it will receive from the western direction, said Adzhar Kurtov from the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, natural gas accounts for 3.4% of energy consumption in China, but its requirements will grow by 5.2% annually.
The project does not threaten the interests of Russia as a buyer of Turkmen gas. Turkmenistan has enough gas both for China and for Gazprom, said Denis Borisov of the Solid investment company. It will supply gas for the Chinese pipeline from its western deposits, while gas from its eastern fields will be transported through the Central Asia - Center pipeline system and the planned Caspian pipeline.
A conflict of interests is only possible if Gazprom builds two gas pipelines to China, which can jointly transport 70 billion cu m of natural gas annually, Borisov said. However, if China's GDP continues to grow at the current rate (by 8.5% in 2009), it will need 80-100 billion cu m of imported natural gas by 2015.
The appearance of alternative sales markets is always a risk, Kurtov said, adding that China, if it becomes the final destination for both the Turkmen and the Russian pipelines, will be able to dictate its pricing terms. The ability to invest in the countries that supply commodities is China's big advantage, he said.
Vedomosti
French automobile manufacturer stakes on Russia
PSA Peugeot Citroen wants to raise its share in the falling market, with Russia being one of its top priority targets.
Within the past nine months the revenues of PSA Peugeot Citroen fell by 17.6% to �35.3 billion. Philippe Varin, the Chairman of the PSA Peugeot Citroen Managing Board, expects the automobile market to continue plunging, but in 2010 the decrease rate will be measured in "a single-digit number." Varin insists that PSA will not diminish its investments and expenses on new developments, which in 2009 amounted to some �3.5.
Varin stated that PSA's crucial markets include Europe, China, Latin America and Russia. He described the PSA share in China, Latin America and Russia (3%-6%) as unsatisfactory, and is determined to increase it to some 10%.
PSA reported its sales in China had grown by 22.8%, the market share hitting 3.2%. In Latin America, it stands at 5.3%, and in the deflated Russian market it rose from 1.9% to 3%.
PSA is not going to reverse its plans for a plant in Kaluga, which is being constructed in cooperation with Mitsubishi; operations at the facility capable of producing up to 300,000 cars annually, will start in March 2010. When raw material prices go up, Russia will promptly see a revival, believes the PSA head.
According to the Association of European Businesses, GM is the only international concern that managed to hit the 10% threshold in the Russian car and light commercial vehicle market, which was made possible due to its brands Opel and Chevrolet Niva. AvtoVAZ, the market leader, boasts a 24% share.
PSA has theoretically every opportunity to take 10% of the market, only heavy investments in local production facilities are required, considers Vladimir Vidulov, the Country Manager Russia at JATO Dynamics, a consulting company specializing in the automobile market. Volkswagen offers a good example: Two years ago, launching its production facility in Russia, Volkswagen top managers claimed they'll boost the share in the Russian market from 2% to 10%, investing �600 million in the project since. This allowed Volkswagen Group RUS, which owns the Volkswagen, Skoda and Audi brands, to increase its share to over 6%.
RIA Novosti is not responsible for the content of outside sources.
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