What the Russian papers say

Russia and Europe search for common ground/Europe gets flexible about gas as winter approaches/New scandal flares up in Russian-Japanese relations over South Kuril dispute/Russia must not disarm as more countries go nuclear

MOSCOW, November 19 (RIA Novosti)

Russia and Europe search for common ground/Europe gets flexible about gas as winter approaches/New scandal flares up in Russian-Japanese relations over South Kuril dispute/Russia must not disarm as more countries go nuclear

Kommersant

Russia and Europe search for common ground

The 24th Russia-EU summit in Stockholm would have been the worst in the history of their relationship if not for the magic word "gas," a Russian political analyst writes.

Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine, writes that the Swedish government unexpectedly improved the situation immensely by green lighting the Nord Stream gas pipeline project.

The Early Warning Mechanism to improve prevention and management in case of an energy crisis, signed before the summit, was the first document in years to seal a common understanding of this crucial problem.

These two elements ensured the success of the Russia-EU summit, Lukyanov writes.

Sluggish Russia-EU relations became almost desperate after both the Caucasus war in 2008 and the Russian-Ukrainian gas crisis. Russia and the EU cannot sever their relationship but have no desire to try to understand each other.

The old model of relations stipulated some forms of Russia's institutional integration in the European legal and economic space, Lukyanov writes. The new model can be described as "constitutional alienation."

Russia and the EU no longer discuss common values because their relations now firmly rest on practical interests, such as gas pipeline projects, the Opel deal, the Mistral helicopter carrier, and the invitation to participate in the privatization of Russian assets.

These ties are growing stronger, as evidenced by the increasing number of countries willing to join the pipeline projects.

Paradoxically, the differences between Russia's relations with individual European countries and its ties with the EU as a whole will increase, the analyst writes. Many EU countries would like to use the benefits of cooperation with Russia, whereas the EU as a socio-political and economic organization is Russia's rival.

It is difficult to say how these two trends will interact because the development of the former will encourage the strengthening of the latter.

Vedomosti

Europe gets flexible about gas as winter approaches

With winter drawing closer, Europeans are becoming increasingly concerned with gas supply problems. It is amazing how Russia managed to export its local annual tradition of utilities preparation for the winter by closing the tap, twice, in 2006 and 2009.

Russia's official position is that Ukraine is to blame for the interrupted gas service to Europe. To minimize future risk, Russia is planning to build two more pipelines, Nord Stream and South Stream. Both projects have taken big steps forward recently. After some weak, short-lived resistance, Europe agreed to Russia's version of supply diversification - new pipelines, old supplier. This has jeopardized the EU's idea to build the Nabucco project. Was it Russia's triumphant political victory? Not necessarily.

This year, Europe is concerned not only about timely delivery but also about the high price of Russian gas. Due to Gazprom's inflexible pricing policies and long-term contracts, Norwegian pipeline gas or liquefied gas from Egypt and Qatar appeared much cheaper at the beginning of this year. Russian gas will not become cheaper even in the long run. South Stream pipeline construction will cost about �25 billion, and Nord Stream will be in the neighborhood of �7.4 billion. Admittedly, Gazprom's European partners will provide half of the financing of the sections built on their territories. Still, Gazprom will have to build connecting pipelines and other infrastructures in Russia.

There is another important point here - Gazprom's policy to increase its transport capacity is not based on any plans to boost exports. The idea is to diversify routes. The monopoly claims it will be able to restore pre-crisis export volumes in 2010, or about 160 billion cubic meters per year, but this is what is sealed in the contracts. In reality, European consumers will take less, and Russia will again face the question of whether their customers should pay for the gas they failed to use under the take-or-pay contracts.

There is enormous discrepancy in the long-term consumption forecasts for Europe, ranging from 542 billion cubic meters (according to the International Energy Agency) to 700 billion cubic meters (according to Gazprom).

The early warning memorandum between Russia and the EU may be taken as a new service offered to customers. But this is still unlikely to prevent a disruption in supply, which usually occurs on short notice, triggered by impulsive decisions. Therefore, after building two new pipelines, Gazprom may find itself selling even less gas than now.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta

Izvestia

New scandal flares up in Russian-Japanese relations over South Kuril dispute

On Wednesday, Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama said he wanted to meet with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev on the disputed South Kuril Islands, now under Russian jurisdiction.

The Japanese leader, who expects President Medvedev to make concessions and to take an unorthodox approach to the bilateral territorial dispute, made the statement amidst a scandal now flaring up around an alleged statement ascribed to Medvedev by the Japanese media. Referring to a source in the Japanese delegation, Japan's wire service Kyodo Tsushin quoted Medvedev as saying that he hoped to achieve progress at the talks on the territorial dispute during the Hatoyama administration's tenure in office.

Kyodo Tsushin issued this story, while covering a recent Medvedev-Hatoyama meeting at the latest Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Singapore.

Analysts were dismayed at Medvedev's alleged statement. Medvedev did not say this, a Russian diplomatic source familiar with the talks in Singapore noted. The paper's source said Japan was simply trying to pressure Moscow through the media because it was discontent with the Russian stand on the South Kuril issue.

The 1956 Soviet-Japanese Joint Declaration is the only international document formalizing bilateral agreements to settle the territorial dispute. Under the Declaration, the Soviet Union promised to return Shikotan and Habomai to Japan after the signing of a bilateral peace treaty.

But Tokyo and Moscow have failed to sign a peace treaty to date.

It appears that Moscow's promising statements to examine all options, to display an orthodox approach and to solve the problem within our generation's lifespan have convinced Tokyo that Russia will agree to return the four islands, said Valery Kistanov, head of the Center of Japanese Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences' Far East Institute.

Japan believes such statements hint at possible concessions and does not want Russia to confine itself to the 1956 Joint Declaration, Kistanov said.

Tokyo has become more active on the South Kuril issue after U.S. President Barack Obama's latest visit to Japan. Hatoyama's stand was probably influenced by his talks with the U.S. leader.

Gazeta.ru

Russia must not disarm as more countries go nuclear

It is unclear why Russia is willing to slash its defense capability now that more countries are going nuclear.

Iran's nuclear program is clearly being developed for the creation of nuclear weapons. A nuclear Iran led by fanatical, unbalanced politicians will become a global threat.

North Korea with its nuclear bombs and missiles is so far blackmailing only South Korea, Japan and the United States, but there are reasons to assume that it has no warm feelings for Russia either. In 2006, North Korean missiles reportedly fell into the sea in dangerous proximity to Nakhodka and Vladivostok in Russia's Far East.

But Iran and North Korea are angels compared to what Pakistan may soon become. Pessimists say that extremists have not seized power in Pakistan only because of the rivalry between the many terrorist groups divided by ethnic, religious and clan differences.

Should Russia disarm when the U.S. military openly says the Taliban will eventually seize Pakistan's nuclear arsenal? Plus, Pakistan has always seen Russia as an ally of its worst enemy, India.

China's rapid economic growth has dramatically changed its relationship with Russia, turning China into the "big brother" of Russia. Military technical cooperation between China and Russia is grinding to halt, with China cutting its technological dependence on the Russian defense industry.

Since China and Pakistan are allies, they may decide to address their foreign policy goals jointly - China in its relations with Russia, and Pakistan in its ties with India.

Russia should advocate the preservation of its own nuclear arsenal and also the arsenals of the Untied States, Britain, France and India. Relations with them could take any turn, but they are still predictable countries. In a decade or two, when China becomes the global leader and decides that the time is right to act, these countries may become Russia's allies in the fight for territorial integrity.

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