What the Russian papers say

MOSCOW, December 1 (RIA Novosti) Russia claims role of ideologist of new world order/Moscow denies rumors of commissioning Bushehr nuclear plant in March 2010/Putin pushes to make Russia's space and rocket industry competitive/Russian businesses hope for the best, prepare for the worst

MOSCOW, December 1 (RIA Novosti) Russia claims role of ideologist of new world order/Moscow denies rumors of commissioning Bushehr nuclear plant in March 2010/Putin pushes to make Russia's space and rocket industry competitive/Russian businesses hope for the best, prepare for the worst

Vedomosti

Russia claims role of ideologist of new world order

The draft European security treaty proposed by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev concerns not just Europe but all Euro-Atlantic and Eurasian countries from Vancouver to Vladivostok.

Russia has reminded the world about the idea of a united Europe "from Dublin to Vladivostok" and also claimed the role of the ideologist and senior architect of a new, safer and more open democratic world.

The 14-clause Kremlin project is a direct (or indirect) allusion to Woodrow Wilson's Fourteen Points, a speech delivered to a joint session of Congress on January 8, 1918, in which the U.S. president put forth his vision of a post-war world that could avoid another terrible conflict.

However, international relations after Germany's defeat in World War I are only vaguely reminiscent of Wilson's idealistic view of the world. The League of Nations set up on the basis of his ideas failed to prevent the series of armed conflicts which eventually developed into an even more destructive World War II.

Although Wilson's initiatives came to fruition only after the anti-Hitler coalition won WWII, the U.S. president was granted a Nobel Peace Prize in 1919, and the United States was widely seen as a peacemaker and a daring architect boldly rebuilding an obsolete world order.

Clearly, it is not a Nobel Prize that has encouraged the Kremlin to propose its vision of a new world order. It did so to overturn the negative view of Russia as an aggressive, unpredictable and underdeveloped country, to show Europe and the rest of the world that Russia is not a trembling disciple in a jump seat but a full member of the G8 and G20 capable of proposing bold ideas.

But can Russia's new initiative be implemented? NATO is unlikely to sign the current wording of the treaty's Article 9, which places the treaty above all and any of the existing international pacts.

It is also unclear what Russia will do if the provisions of the new treaty contradict its obligations under the Collective Security Treaty, signed also by Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.

Nor is it obvious how the implementation of the new treaty can be harmonized with UN decisions and peacekeeping operations.

In short, the new European security system proposed by Russia could become another League of Nations, which failed to prevent WWII because of contradictions between its members and was not recognized by many countries in the first place.

Medvedev's draft European security treaty will be discussed at the 17th OSCE Ministerial Council opening in the Greek capital Athens on Tuesday.

Gazeta.ru

Moscow denies rumors of commissioning Bushehr nuclear plant in March 2010

The Western media says Russia plans to commission the Bushehr nuclear power plant by Nowruz, the Persian New Year, due to be celebrated on March 21, 2010.

However, a spokesperson for Atomstroyexport, Russia's nuclear power equipment and service export monopoly implementing the Bushehr project, has denied reports of specific deadlines for commissioning the plant.

"Nobody will tell you about specific deadlines because, although start-up operations are proceeding well, we must ensure 100% safety," the contractor company's spokesperson Olga Tsyleva told the paper.

She said hydraulic tests of the first reactor hot/cold loop, launched in mid-November, were still underway. "We must ensure a guaranteed integration of all equipment," Tsyleva said.

The Russian nuclear sector announced initial hydraulic tests at the Bushehr plant in mid-November. On November 16, Russia's Energy Minister Sergei Shmatko said the deadline for commissioning the plant would be postponed from the end of 2009 to a later date.

"We are expecting good results by late 2009, but the plant will not be launched," Shmatko said.

Several days later, Rosatom, the regulatory body of the Russian nuclear sector, specified the timeframe of start-up operations.

Under the timeframe, pressure inside the first reactor hot/cold loop was to have been raised to 250 kg per sq. cm. last week.

Last Sunday, Shmatko visited Iran to take part in a meeting of the Russian-Iranian intergovernmental commission. Shmatko said nothing about plant commissioning deadlines but hinted that there would be no test-related delays.

"We have done everything possible to complete the project. We are currently testing the system in full conformity with IAEA safety standards. I am surprised how successful the tests are," Shmatko said after meeting with Iranian Oil Minister Masoud Mirkazemi.

RBC Daily, Gazeta

Putin pushes to make Russia's space and rocket industry competitive

The Russian space and rocket industry must become competitive as soon as possible and enter the international market, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said on Monday. Analysts believe Russia will have to follow India and China's lead and buy up foreign technology.

"In 2010, we must supply more than 30 surface- and sea-based ballistic missiles and 11 space systems to the armed forces," Putin told the defense industry. Many models lag behind foreign designs, while their lead times are running behind schedule. This must be remedied in the shortest time possible, the prime minister said.

Anatoly Tsyganok, head of the Center for Military Forecasting, said the space and rocket industry is experiencing huge problems with equipment. "In Soviet times, we purchased high-precision machine tools using every devious trick in the book. There were only a few of them in the country, and they were able to machine parts down to a micron. Now most of them are out of commission, and no one is going to sell us new ones," the analyst said. In addition, the defense plants are short of workers because fitters and turners are drafted for military service as soon as they complete training.

Analysts believe Russia is almost non-competitive in satellite building: It is losing most foreign tenders and if it wins some, it is for political reasons. "We are making a communications satellite for Iran - understandably, the United States would not have taken this order. We are manufacturing two communications satellites for Kazakhstan - it is also a tied political project," says Andrei Ionin, an independent space analyst. "We have long been buying European and Canadian components for civilian satellites."

The United States accounts for 75% of the world's space budget ($35 billion), while Russia's share is only 8%. To compete with a rival that was initially stronger and is growing with each year is very difficult, Ionin says. "But the main problem is not even a shortage of funding. It lies in the lack of a strategy. Russia could follow the path of India and China, which are buying up foreign technology," he believes.

Vedomosti

Russian businesses hope for the best, prepare for the worst

Businesses are not afraid of a second wave of the economic crisis, but expect growth of markets and profits, according to a KPMG survey.

On the other hand, Russian business leaders do not see any particular reason for optimism: they are hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.

Growth in the United States and the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) led the global effort to claw back from the recession in the past few months. The same countries are bound to show rapid growth next year, according to a recent Markit Economics survey of 6,200 companies all over the world commissioned by KPMG.

Russia's GDP contracted more seriously than in the other BRIC countries, but the country is expected to recover more rapidly, said Tony Thompson, head of Advisory Businesses for KPMG in Russia and the CIS. According to the survey, 59% of Russian respondents expected production growth, 59.3% higher revenues, 53.9% more orders, while 41.6% believe that profits will rise.

On the other hand, along with a booming economic revival, Russian businesses will be facing a surge in commodities and energy prices, structural inflation and expensive loans, which will restrict growth, Thompson added.

Emerging economies were the first to show fast growth, by an estimated 1.5% in 2009, International Monetary Fund analysts observe. Russia will overcome the 8.5% contraction in 2009 and reach a growth rate of 1.6% in 2010, the country's Economics Ministry said in its latest forecast.

This booming optimism looks unjustified at a time when the economy still lacks strength, said Nikolai Kashcheyev from Sberbank. Market demand remains weak, while government investment remains the key driver of economic activity and the loan market is not reviving. "It is just that people tend to exaggerate the tiniest signs of improvement after a long series of bad news," the analyst said.

The business leaders surveyed by Vedomosti sounded cautious. There are no reasons for optimism, and the markets have not revived, said Vladimir Tomayev, managing director at KMA Ruda metals company.

The situation has stabilized, although many problems remain unsolved, such as high loan interest and administrative pressure, which impede recovery, said David Yakobashvili, chairman of the board of the Wimm Bill Dann food giant. On the other hand, the U.S. and European economies are recovering and are bound to pull Russia out in the end, he added.

"There are no fundamental improvements so far. We all just hope for the best but prepare for the worst," said Nikolai Vlasenko, a co-owner of Moscow-based Viktoria retailer.

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