MOSCOW, December 14 (RIA Novosti) Tiny Nauru agrees to recognize Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's independence / Russia's pressure on neighboring countries decreases / Insufficient scientific evidence for acting on climate change - analyst / Turkmenistan, China commission gas pipeline bypassing Russia

Kommersant

Tiny Nauru agrees to recognize Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's independence

One more state may join a list of countries that have recognized Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Kieren Keke, Nauru's Foreign Minister, said on Saturday in Tskhinvali that his country is ready to recognize their independence. Another breach in Abkhazia and South Ossetia's diplomatic blockade may cost Russia several tens of millions of dollars.

The Republic of Nauru is a small state on a coral island of the same name in the Pacific, with a population of 14,000. It declared independence in 1968, and joined the UN in 1999. Nauru is the smallest republic in the world and the only country without an official capital.

Nauru's interest in South Caucasus came very handy for Moscow. The process of recognizing the former Georgian autonomies halted last year after Nicaragua and Venezuela followed Russia's example. Hopes that other Latin American countries would follow suit were not justified. Members of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA), which includes Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, Bolivia, Ecuador, Dominica, Honduras, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, and Antigua and Barbuda, seemed ready to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but, like Managua and Caracas, wanted first to convert their recognition into Russian loans.

Moscow's attempt to apply the formula to Ecuador also led to a dead end: Ecuador's President Rafael Correa, who visited Russia on October 29, failed to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia and, naturally, was issued no loans (according to Kommersant, Russia was prepared to give Quito up to $200 million).

According to the newspaper's sources, Nauru, one of the poorest states in the world, does not set its sights too high - it seeks only $50 million, which it asked Russia to allocate "for urgent social and economic projects" on this coral island. This fee can be considered moderate. In July 2002, Beijing promised to give Nauru $130 million in aid for refusing to recognize Taiwan and establishing diplomatic relations with mainland China. But in May 2005, Nauru reversed its stand and, in exchange for generous help, recognized Taiwan after breaking off relations with Beijing.

Vedomosti

Russia's pressure on neighboring countries decreases

Russia hoped to use the economic crisis to strengthen its influence on post-Soviet countries, but it quickly turned out that these new possibilities were limited.

Having quarreled with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko several times over the past year, Russia has nevertheless agreed to supply oil and gas to Belarus at discount prices in 2010.

Also, Russia repeatedly refused to grant loans to Belarus, but now its largest state lender, Sberbank, is buying Belarusian BPS Bank and has promised to open Belarus a credit line and to organize two syndicated loans for it.

In return, Belarusian authorities promised to sign the Customs Union documents and to allow Russian companies to take part in privatization in Belarus.

Although Russia accused Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko of inability to run his country, it has agreed to change the gas supply contract allowing Ukraine to save $5 billion in 2010 and not to pay fines in 2009 for failure to import the contracted amounts of gas.

In return for its generosity, Russia may get vaguely formulated economic preferences from Ukraine when Yushchenko's place is taken at the next presidential election by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, with whom Russia has reportedly come to terms, or by Viktor Yanukovych, the leader of the opposition Party of Regions.

This is a U-turn from what Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said in May. He said Russia would no longer subsidize the CIS economies by selling them energy resources at prices below world market rates.

Russia is weathering the crisis worse than many other CIS countries are, and the room for maneuver it had due to its huge territory and accumulated reserves is shrinking.

At the same time, the crisis has also set a limit to neighboring countries' endurance beyond which it will be senseless to try to pressure them. The economic situation in Ukraine and Belarus is so tight that Russia's demand for gas payments can only provoke instability there.

Russia's long-term prospects of access to its neighbors' assets are vague. Its short-term objective must be to help its neighbors survive.

Vedomosti

Insufficient scientific evidence for acting on climate change - analyst

The current UN Climate Change Conference 2009 in Copenhagen shows how the seemingly clearcut distinction between science and politics is being eroded.

As soon as a scientific issue becomes political, a political game gets underway, writes Professor Konstantin Sonin from the Kellogg School of Management, U.S. Northwestern University, and the Moscow-based New Economic School.

The advocates of immediate actions, including restrictions on certain types of environmental pollution, have a qualified majority in Copenhagen. China, whose sheer size makes it worried about the planet's future, has also joined this majority, Sonin writes.

All that remains to do is persuade the developing countries, for whom stopping greenhouse-gas emissions would mean giving up the hope of ever reaching a certain stage of economic development - a stage that has already been passed by the industrial world, Sonin writes.

It was announced last week that industrial nations would allocate $10.5 billion to developing nations in the next three years, and that the funding would be used to implement climate change prevention programs.

The victory of those advocating a resolute and immediate approach seems inevitable.

But what is the scientific basis for this political decision? We are told that the measures being proposed faithfully follow the recommendations made by 80% of the relevant research. However, the 80-20 score (and even 90-10-) is far less convincing in science than it is in politics.

The fact that the scientific community is divided 80-20 on the climate change issue means that there is virtually no scientific evidence for practical measures. Still, it would be good if such evidence existed, Sonin writes.

The hacking of an email server used by the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia (UEA) in Norwich, the UK, referred to by some sources as "Climategate," shows that research must be financed in such a way as to protect the scientists from political pressure from either national governments or the scientific community.

The relatively small funding being dwarfed by anti-crisis allocations can be used to create permanent positions and entire research centers at leading universities, as well as to buy all data being used in such research for open use. In that case, the political majority will have reliable scientific evidence, Sonin writes in conclusion.

Vremya Novostei

Turkmenistan, China commission gas pipeline bypassing Russia

China is to commission a 7,000-kilometer (4,300-mile) pipeline today, which will dramatically change the gas supply and the overall geopolitical situation in Central Asia. The pipeline will carry gas from a Turkmenistan gas field being developed by the China National Petroleum Corporation to China via Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.

Chinese President Hu Jintao has come to Turkmenistan via Astana, Kazakhstan, where Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev proposed unveiling the 1,833-km (1,139-mile) Kazakh section of the pipeline. This is another reminder to the two main participants of the project - the supplier and the customer - that their project may fail without the good will of the transit countries.

The whole pipeline is to be finished by 2013.

On the other hand, the Kazakh president's interference is unlikely to darken the positive mood of Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, who must feel like a winner today. Although Russia's Gazprom stopped buying Turkmen gas following an accident on the main pipeline from Turkmenistan to Russia in April, Turkmenistan has found a new major customer and thus decreased its export dependence on Russia.

Before the commissioning of the pipeline, Turkmenistan sold 90% of its gas (44 billion cubic meters annually) to Gazprom and 5 billion cu m to Iran. It is now planning to increase gas supplies to Iran.

Turkmenistan paid a high price for diversifying its gas exports. In 2008, the Russian energy giant agreed to buy Central Asian gas at European prices minus transport fees. Turkmengaz sold gas to Gazprom for $375 per 1,000 cu m in the first quarter, earning $4 billion. Given the deteriorating situation in the European Union, Turkmenistan could expect to earn at least $8-$9 billion from its gas deliveries to Gazprom.

The conditions of its contract with China appear to be less profitable. According to the newspaper's sources, China wanted to buy Turkmen gas for $100-$130 per 1,000 cu m.

The Turkmen president cannot demand a higher price for political reasons, because he presented his country's "liberation" from dependence on the Russian gas monopoly as highly desirable. However, if Russia stops buying Turkmen gas or cuts its imports to a minimum due to a negative market situation, China will become Turkmenistan's exclusive customer, which will be an additional risk for the Central Asian gas supplier.

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