Gazeta.ru

'Resetting' a catchy term to cover lack of strategy

The symbolic "reset" button in U.S.-Russian relations was pressed in early March; in July, even skeptics were convinced by U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to Moscow. The fall saw the start of nuclear reduction talks, and Russia's policy with regard to Iran began bending toward sanctions. However, things began to stall by early winter. What happened? The problem is the absence of a concept of relations, a Russian analyst suggests.

Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the Moscow-based magazine Russia in Global Affairs, believes that Russia and the United States are no longer opponents as 25 years ago, since the systemic basis for their confrontation is gone now. But the paradox of new relations is that each sees the other as "a declining" power.

America does not believe Russia has a future - given its shrinking population, degraded infrastructure, and commodity-dependent economy squeezed between economic growth centers. Russia's ambitions as a full-fledged global "pole" are not being taken seriously, not when compared with giants showing real growth like China.

Russia, in turn, is obsessed with spotting signs suggesting the end of the era of U.S. dominance. The concept of a multi-polar world, which long seemed little more than an abstract slogan used by America's ill-wishers in Paris, Beijing or Moscow, is slowly materializing, Lukyanov writes.

Both perspectives are justified, but they reflect each side's expectations rather than current facts, which results in hazy mutual policies.

Obama's government tried to play on Russia's ego, supposing that, if they made an effort to compensate for the earlier lack of heed, they could achieve progress on vital issues such as Iran, Afghanistan and nuclear nonproliferation. This policy could have worked a couple of years ago, Lukyanov says. Moscow was then seriously aggrieved by being ignored, and prestige was one of its political priorities.

However, Washington did not care much about Moscow's opinion back in the mid-2000s. And now it is too late for encouraging statements: Russia is now less concerned over recognition by the United States than over the danger of harming relations with other major players. Russia is trying to maneuver, which annoys America. However, Washington cannot afford to cut all interaction with Moscow now, as Beijing refuses to enter into any binding relations, while Europe does not make much difference being at such a far distance from the Euro-Atlantic region.

The new START treaty will soon be finalized, and transit cooperation in Afghanistan will continue in one format or another. But there will be no clarity between Russia and America, as neither of the two countries is willing to revise its own and each other's role in the 21st-century world. So far, Moscow and Washington are either clinging to their views of the past, or biding their time to see what happens. The new concept of "resetting" is only good for disguising their lack of strategy, the analyst concludes.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta

International Criminal Court to investigate 2008 South Ossetian conflict

Investigators from the International Criminal Court (ICC), a permanent tribunal that prosecutes individuals for genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes and the crime of aggression, are due to arrive in Georgia in early February to investigate the circumstances of outbreaking the August 2008 war in South Ossetia's Tskhinval region.

A source in the Russian Foreign Ministry said the upcoming visit of the ICC investigation commission, which has its official seat in The Hague, Netherlands, was predictable and expected.

"Russia considers it necessary to expose the real culprits who had started the war. The South Ossetian government has numerous grievances against the Georgian military. Both countries have repeatedly contacted this institution," the diplomat said.

He said the group was expected to visit Moscow and that Russia was ready to conduct joint work and to answer questions linked with international court lawsuits. However, the source declined to confirm that ICC investigators would leave for Georgia in early February.

"Although I have heard about this, I cannot vouch for the deadline," he said.

South Ossetia's Foreign Minister Murad Dzhioyev said Tskhinvali was expecting ICC investigators, who would find out the truth about who had started the August 2008 conflict, but that he still did not know when the group was due to arrive.

A Tbilisi analyst said on condition of anonymity that the Georgian government will face problems if European institutions establish an investigation commission. Such a situation associates immediately with Balkan politicians standing trial at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague, but Russia and the Tskhinvali government, which have committed many sins, should not rejoice either, the analyst added.

He said the Georgian opposition will take advantage of the visit to make more active demands for the government's resignation.

On Thursday, Georgia's opposition Labor Party called on the UN Security Council to hand over President Mikhail Saakashvili to the Hague Tribunal.

Political analyst Alexander Rahr, a member of the German Council on Foreign Relations, said Saakashvili was unlikely to stand trial at the Hague Tribunal.

He said a European Union commission headed by Swiss diplomat Heidi Tagliavini had prepared a report denouncing Saakashvili, and that Russia, which was supported by a minority of nations on the Tskhinvali war issue, should not go any further.

He said stubborn attempts to try the Georgian President at an international court would be thwarted by the West, primarily the United States. Russia could be reminded of some other unpleasant counter-arguments, including the 1999 fighting in Grozny, the capital of Chechnya, and the entire Chechen war, the analyst said.

Moskovsky Komsomolets, Kommersant, Vedomosti

Interior Ministry considers new ways to assess police work

Russian Interior Minister Rashid Nurgaliyev said on Thursday he had signed an order on the new criteria for assessing police work. He said that according to the new system police officers' work will not be assessed by the number of solved crimes.

The public is happy, but law-enforcement professionals are wary of the new order.

"We welcome the order, which should have been issued long ago," said Oleg Novikov, an analyst at the Public Verdict human rights foundation.

"Earlier, nearly all policemen had a target figure of criminals they must apprehend," said an investigator in Moscow. "As a result, in recent years public security police units bought solved crimes from their colleagues, paying them 15,000-20,000 rubles ($500-$670) a crime for the right to enter their units' code in the registration card."

"Another way to fulfill the target plan is to blame crimes on innocent people," the source said. "Most often, police plant drugs on innocent people or convince homeless people to steal food in a supermarket. At the same time, they have slackened efforts to solve medium- and low-grade crimes. The minister has not said anything about this in his speech."

We must still set some targets, or the police will stop working, said an officer at the Interior Ministry's headquarters.

A Moscow prosecutor said the new order retained some elements of the previous system because the investigators' work will be assessed by the number of criminal cases forwarded to courts, thus forcing them to use their old tricks.

"The minister has promised that the new guidelines for the police will be to regain people's trust and enhance the prestige of the law-enforcement system as a whole," said an investigator. "In other words, this is just another PR campaign that is unlikely to improve the situation."

Vedomosti

Roman Abramovich to sell Chukotka gold to Canadian company

Roman Abramovich, the owner of London's Chelsea football club, is selling two gold fields in Chukotka to a Canadian gold-mining company, Kinross, for a 1.5% stake in Kinross and $165 million - almost 17.5 times the price he paid for the fields two years ago when Abramovich was Chukotka governor.

Kinross negotiated the deal with subsidiaries of Abramovich's Millhouse for the purchase of two companies - Severnoye Zoloto and Regionruda - which have licenses to develop the Dvoinoye deposit and the Vodorazdelnaya gold-bearing property in Chukotka. The Millhouse subsidiaries will receive $165 million and 1.5% of new stock issued by Kinross (on Thursday they traded at $195.3 million).

The deal will be clinched in the 3rd quarter of this year if an asset audit satisfies Kinross, and the purchase is approved by the Toronto exchange and the Russian government foreign investment commission, the Canadian company said. The bid will be sent to the commission after its approval by a state commission on supplementary exploration of Dvoinoye's reserves. They may exceed 50 metric tons of gold (or 1.6 million ounces, compared with the current figure of 546,720 ounces), said Lou Naumovsky, general director of Kinross's Moscow office.

Kinross is among the world's top 10 gold miners in terms of output (it has assets in Canada, the United States, Chile, Brazil and Russia) and top five operators for capitalization. On Thursday, on the Toronto exchange, the company was trading at $12.9 billion. If the deal with Millhouse goes through, Abramovich's companies will join the top 20 owners of Kinross.

The gold-mining sector is still attractive to investors, says Maxim Matveyev, an analyst at ING Bank. In 2010, as forecast by ING Bank, the price for gold will remain stable at about $1,100 an ounce, adjusted to $1,000 in 2011.

Three years ago, gold cost a third less than now, and Dvoinoye worked on a seasonal basis. It is unlikely that Abramovich's company paid more than $20 million for this asset, says Unicredit Securities analyst Marat Gabitov. Therefore, the deposit together with the Vodorazdelnaya property is being sold at almost 17.5 times the initial purchase price.

Kinross is prepared to pay $180 an ounce for the reserves, Gabitov said. This is expensive: Polyus Zoloto was paying KazakhGold $14 an ounce. But the high price is justified: ore from both fields can be processed at Kinross-owned Kupol plant. This will substantially cut the Canadians' operating costs and will not require major investment, Gabitov said.

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