NATO faces the Russian question / King of Jordan comes to Moscow to talk arms and peace / Ukrainian economic revival impossible without Russian financial assistance / Number of Russian billionaires doubled in 2009 /

Gazeta.ru

NATO faces the Russian question

The idea of accepting Russia into NATO, which only recently seemed pure fantasy, is suddenly almost part of mainstream Western opinion, writes Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the Russia in Global Affairs magazine. It is rumored that a report being prepared by NATO's Wise Men Group (under Madeleine Albright) for the authors of the alliance's new strategic concept might recommend just that. Meanwhile, the other day a group of German politicians and military chiefs, including former defense minister Volker Ruhe and former chief of NATO's military committee General Klaus Naumann, suggested inviting Moscow to join. It would be a good move.

On the one hand, NATO sticks to the logic of expansion it has pursued for the past 15 years and functions as the main, if not the only, security structure in Europe. On the other hand, this is the final answer to all Moscow's charges that NATO is failing to take its interests into account and is acting to its detriment.

The first and almost instinctive response to any proposed discussion of Russia's NATO membership is "but it just can't work." Russia sees itself as an independent power hub in a multi-polar world, while NATO, for all the formal equality of its members, has one dominant country: the United States. The voluntary relinquishing of this domination is possible only in the highly hypothetical case of an overall weakening of America. But then this would seem to suggest a new version of U.S. isolation: a move away from Europe with its focus shifting towards China and the Asia Pacific Rim rather than it becoming just another rank-and-file member. The same applies to Russia: it would be ready to accept U.S. dominance only if there were to be some kind of new and total collapse. But discussing this now makes no sense, because it would result in the emergence of an entirely different situation across Eurasia.

China is the one factor that can alter the whole equation. It would seem that a Moscow-Washington alliance could give them more confidence in the face of a dynamically growing country which, when the Cold War ended, managed to take advantage of all the changes that went with the shifting situation on the global stage. For America China is a potential global threat, a challenge to its leadership position in the world, while for Russia, it represents the risk of becoming directly dependent on an economically stronger neighbor. For Washington it is therefore more profitable to re-orient Beijing towards regional expansion - in the Russian sphere of influence. Moscow, on the contrary, is interested in Beijing increasingly concentrating on raising its global profile, rather than helping adjacent territories to consolidate.

This places Europe in a bizarre situation: why should it get itself involved in the showdown between "bigger" geopolitical players and put its own calm existence at risk?

RBC Daily

King of Jordan comes to Moscow to talk arms and peace

King Abdullah II of Jordan, the best Middle-Eastern friend of Russia and Vladimir Putin, has come to Moscow for the tenth time. Unfortunately, warm relations with the Arab monarch are slow to transform into major economic projects.

On the other hand, Jordan plays an important role in the Middle East peace process, so Russian officials needed to talk to the king before the upcoming meeting of the Middle East Quartet ministers in Moscow.

King Abdullah's mentality is similar to that of former security officer Vladimir Putin, as he once commanded a tank battalion, analysts say. It is therefore only logical that defense cooperation has become the basis for Russian-Jordanian relations. Russia issued a $390mn "defense" loan to Jordan several years ago for the purchase of Kornet anti-tank missile systems and Igla air-defense missile systems, and later two transport planes Il-76. Moscow has proposed an increase on the loan, but King Abdullah has not given a definite answer yet.

"Although King Abdullah is a military man and a personal friend of Putin's, it is hard to expect that the purchases list will be expanded, as Jordan does not have enough money for that," said Igor Korotchenko, a member of the Defense Ministry's Public Council.

Joint production of anti-tank grenade launchers would be a much more feasible project, he said. There are plans to build a plant in Jordan to manufacture Hashim, hand-held multi-caliber anti-tank rocket grenade launchers. In the longer term, the country expects to export the weapon to other Middle East customers. Russian grenade launchers have earned an extremely good reputation during Israel's war against Hezbollah in Lebanon, as they easily destroyed a Merkava tank turret eventually causing an explosion of its ammunition load, Korotchenko added.

Nuclear energy is another promising area for potential cooperation between Russia and Jordan. However, this issue was not even brought up in the Kremlin on Thursday, a source close to the talks told RBC Daily. Earlier reports cited joint plans to mine uranium in Jordan, but sources at Rosatom's uranium subsidiary ARMZ denied that any official documents had been signed and said they will consider any proposal from Jordan when it makes one.

The recent talks agenda must have been dominated by political issues, analysts say. Officials in Moscow needed to harmonize policies with Abdullah II in the run-up to the Quartet ministers meeting on March 19 in Moscow, said Gumer Isayev, head of the Center for the Study of the Modern Middle East, a St. Petersburg think tank. He said: "Jordan, one of the key mediators in the Middle East peace process, has found itself involved in a conflict. The insurgence of Palestinians who settled there after the 1967 war had to be suppressed by regular army in the 'black September' of 1970. Many refuges now hold Jordanian passports."

Kommersant

Ukrainian economic revival impossible without Russian financial assistance

On Thursday, the Verkhovna Rada (Supreme Council or Parliament) of Ukraine approved the line-up of a new national government headed by Mikola Azarov, 62, from Kaluga, Russia.

Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych's inner circle says the new government will have to rectify mistakes made by the pro-Western Orange Coalition in Kiev's policy towards Russia.

The new Cabinet prioritizes substantial reductions in the price of Russian gas delivered to Ukraine and the attraction of huge Russian financial resources in the form of easy-term loans or large-scale investment.

Sources in both Russian and Ukrainian Foreign Ministries have talked about what Kiev expects from Moscow. A Russian Foreign Ministry official said the issue of financial assistance was raised on March 5 during Yanukovych's Moscow visit.

"Although no one openly requested anything from us, the Ukrainian side indicated that its economy required additional resources, and that funding would be appropriate. Russia is ready to invest in specific projects, including the completion of the Khmelnytsky nuclear power plant," the Russian diplomat said.

A source in the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry said Kiev realized that the new government would have to ask Moscow for a loan totaling about $3 billion.

Analysts do not doubt the fact that Ukrainian and Russian Prime Ministers will reach consensus. "Azarov is sincere in his advocacy of Ukraine's accession to the Common Economic Space comprising Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. In 2003-2004, Azarov, then First Deputy Prime Minister in the Yanukovych government, held accession talks. Today, he advocates close ties with Moscow and supports the Customs Union being lobbied for by Vladimir Putin," said Vadim Karasev, director of the Kiev-based Institute of Global Strategies.

The Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kostiantyn Hryshchenko drafted a bilateral-reconciliation program called "Conservative Modernization" and is also eager to get down to work.

"The program primarily implies that Ukraine should now prioritize relations in the Moscow-Brussels-Washington triangle. Although Russia will be its top priority, Ukrainian-EU rapprochement and efforts to join the EU in the long term will remain a strategic goal," a well-informed source in the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry told the paper.

According to the diplomat, the new Ukrainian government prioritizes partnership with Russia and streamlined bilateral relations. "We are linked by such hi-tech sectors as the aircraft industry, rocket-and-missile production and defense industry cooperation. It is impossible to expand these sectors without Russia, while the EU mostly expects scrap metal and sunflowers from Ukraine," he said.

Nezavisimaya Gazeta

Number of Russian billionaires doubled in 2009

The number of Russian billionaires doubled last year although the country's GDP fell by nearly 8%. This is a quantitative and not a structural change, analysts say.

According to Forbes, the number of billionaires grew by 25% in the world but almost doubled (from 32 to 62) in Russia. Analysts explain it by growth on stock markets, boosted to an extent by governments' bailout policies.

"Oil prices have doubled in a year - and the list of Russian billionaires increased respectively," the magazine's editor-in-chief Steve Forbes said in an interview with RIA Novosti.

"The personal wealth of the world's richest people best correlates with the situation on the stock market," said Alexei Pavlov, deputy chief analyst at the Arbat Capital asset management company. "Therefore, last year's doubling of the number of Russian billionaires is a result of the growth of the main market indices."

"The Russian stock market fell 80%-90% at the beginning of the global financial crisis," said Vadim Dolgopolov, a managing partner at FinSovet Audit. "In terms of market value, the personal wealth of Russia's richest people plunged to a record-low level. But the market has since regained a considerable part of its losses, and so it is logical that the number of billionaires has grown. In other words, this is simple arithmetic; the growth cannot be attributed to structural change or the appearance of new companies and markets."

The Russian market has regained a large part of its losses thanks to the government's package of support measures.

"Russia spent more funds to support its stock market than other countries," said Igor Nikolayev, head of strategic analysis at FBK, one of the first private auditing firms in Russia. "It is not surprising, therefore, that the Russian market has grown by 150%, which is far more than the stock markets of other countries. It is a record-breaking achievement. Personal capital is assessed by the value of the stakes held, which is why the crisis has become a period of asset growth."

"Government injections into business usually increase the wealth of rich individuals," said Vladimir Nekrasov, general director of Contour Components, a producer of Business Intelligence software for interactive reporting, data analysis and information delivery.

"But the billionaires' personal wealth grows faster when control is inadequate and corruption rampant," the analyst added.

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MOSCOW, March 12 (RIA Novosti)