Missiles in exchange for nuclear plant/ Israel may go for broke against Iran/ OPEC perceives Russian threat/ Siberian policemen rewarded for turning down bribes

Kommersant

Missiles in exchange for nuclear plant

The very first day Hillary Clinton arrived in Russia revealed a wide gap between Moscow and Washington on a key issue: the Iranian nuclear program. On Thursday, a discussion of the launch date of the Bushehr nuclear plant led to a public spat between the Secretary of State and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at a joint news conference.

Yet only recently it seemed all differences on Iran were resolved. Experts believe the sudden falling-out was provoked by a recent revival of U.S. plans to deploy anti-missiles in Europe.

On Thursday, when the future of the Bushehr plant came up for discussion, Lavrov said with certainty that "the project will be finished" and "the steps to meet all technological requirements are entering the decisive stage."

The minister was not expected to give a different answer: a few hours earlier, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin had told a meeting with nuclear experts in Volgodonsk that the first generating unit in Bushehr would go on stream this summer. But Lavrov's words clearly upset Clinton and she rushed to say that the U.S. was opposed to the commissioning of the Bushehr plant, considering it premature.

The brief spat showed lack of unity on the Iranian issue between Moscow and Washington. But Russia, according to sources in the Foreign Ministry, had never openly pledged support for sanctions as suggested by the United States or agreed to renege on the project in Bushehr. A source in the Kremlin Executive Office explained: "Our point of view has not changed. We need smart sanctions, not sanctions for their own sake because they would only hit the Iranian people."

Experts, however, are confident that Moscow's reluctance to help Washington chasten Iran is due not only to the concern for the Iranian people. "As they say in America, there is no free lunch," says Yevgeny Satanovsky, president of the Middle East Institute. "To enlist Russia's opposition to Iran, the U.S. should offer Moscow a good reimbursement. Its amount has been mentioned on many occasions, beginning with Putin's Munich speech."

According to the analyst, "the key thing is either to abandon missile defenses in Eastern Europe or to work jointly on their establishment. Meanwhile, the Obama administration, paying lip service to 'resetting' relations with Russia, is moving in the same direction as George W. Bush."

"Progress on the START treaty bears no relation to the deal on Iran. Obama, as a Nobel prize winner, needs the treaty even more than Medvedev," Satanovsky said. In his view, before differences on missile defense are removed, Washington is unlikely to secure Moscow's backing for tough Iranian sanctions.

Gazeta.ru

Israel may go for broke against Iran

The meeting of the Middle East Quartet in Moscow is a high-profile event that is not expected to produce a miracle solution to the problem, a Russian analyst writes.

The Quartet consists of the United States, Russia, the UN and the EU.

Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the Moscow-based magazine Russia in Global Affairs, writes that Israel could decide to use military force against Iran in a situation that is not conducive to a meaningful dialogue, let alone a peace solution.

While the Quartet met in Moscow to discuss peace options, relations between the United States and Israel have grown unexpectedly tense. The U.S. administration is displeased that Israel announced its decision to build 1,600 housing units in East Jerusalem during U.S. Vice President Joe Biden's recent visit.

Taking such a decision when the U.S. vice president was in Israel to discuss launching indirect peace talks was unwise, especially since Israel's survival in a hostile surrounding depends exclusively on Washington, Lukyanov writes.

U.S. President Barack Obama, who needs to achieve a victory or at least avoid a defeat, may pretend to be mortally offended and demand that Israel soften its policy in order to lead the Middle East settlement out of the deadlock. Other members of the Quartet would support such a demand.

According to the analyst, Europeans are furious that the organizers of the murder of a Hamas leader in Dubai used EU passports, while Moscow has always thought that Washington should put more pressure on Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has limited room for maneuver, because the government coalition could fall apart any day while the public is not favoring a peace agreement.

Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas has few possibilities for compromise too. Many people see him as the last Palestinian leader capable of forging a deal with Israel, and think that his successor, whoever he may be, will be much more radical.

In this situation Israel could go for broke, Lukyanov writes. Diplomatic attempts to convince Iran to abandon its nuclear plans have not succeeded, and it is not clear what the international community would do if sanctions, if they are approved, fail to attain the desired result.

Israel views Iran as a threat to its existence, and has more than once hinted that it would not wait endlessly for the international community to make a decision.

An Israeli military operation against nuclear facilities in Iran would dramatically worsen the situation in the region. In this event, the United States will have to support its long-time ally in the fight against Iran and the radical Islamic movements Hamas and Hezbollah, which Tehran could use to deliver an asymmetric blow.

The consequences will be unpredictable, but diplomatic failure to prevent the tightening of the knot of contradictions will also eventually lead to an explosion, the analyst concludes.

Kommersant

OPEC perceives Russian threat

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) fears the expansion of Russian oil deliveries to the Asia-Pacific Region via the East Siberia - Pacific Ocean Oil Pipeline (ESPO).

Analysts, however, do not see any threat for the 12-nation cartel because Russian oil will not seriously affect regional prices pending the commissioning of the ESPO's second stage and the increase of annual deliveries to at least 80 million metric tons.

OPEC fears may be linked with plans to expand its presence on the Asian market.

"We cannot avoid problems," a Libyan delegate told the 156th Ordinary Meeting of the Conference of OPEC Oil Ministers in Vienna.

"Although OPEC's irritation is understandable, it lacks any real grounds," said Valery Nesterov, an energy analyst at Troika Dialog investment company. "Russian oil is no threat to OPEC because the volumes cannot be compared."

Russian oil accounts for less than 1% of the Asian market, Nesterov said. ESPO has pumped 3.1 million metric tons of oil to Asian countries in the first quarter of 2010.

In all, there are plans to deliver 15 million tons of oil in 2010, not to mention another 15 million tons annually delivered by state-owned Rosneft integrated petroleum company to China by rail under a prepaid long-term contract.

Nesterov says ESPO oil has just about the same composition as Urals Blend oil. Moreover, its quality is better than that of heavy sour crude oil from Persian Gulf countries. Although Russian oil was initially sold at a discount, prices have now evened out.

Although there is no "Asian bonus" either, ESPO oil remains attractive for customers, including China, Japan and South Korea. The last two are concerned about their excessive dependence on Gulf oil shipments and plan to diversify oil imports.

Cheaper OPEC deliveries in April and strong statements with regard to Russia are a "natural behavior of rivals during a local conflict of interests," Nesterov told the paper.

"Russian oil companies, which have never met OPEC requests to reduce production, will never do this," said Mikhail Krutikhin, editor-in-chief of the Russian Energy weekly magazine.

Krutikhin said ESPO deliveries were a drop in the bucket and could not influence the market. Reduced prices for OPEC's April deliveries are motivated by other factors.

"Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries are now actively shifting their attention from the United States with excessive oil supply to China and other Asian countries. They are taking regional oil reservoirs on lease and reducing prices, and ESPO oil has nothing to do with this," Krutikhin said.

Izvestia

Siberian policemen rewarded for turning down bribes

An unusual ceremony took place in Khakassia, Eastern Siberia, on Thursday. Six traffic police officers were given awards for refusing to accept bribes from insistent motorists.

The incorruptible law enforcers shyly accepted the reward from Khakassia's Interior Minister Ilya Olkhovsky - 30,000 rubles for all six. Each bribe they refused was multiplied by ten and formed the inspector's reward. In order to get the money, they needed only to prove the fact of bribery.

"The bribes offered our staff by drivers ranged from 300 to 1,000 rubles," Izvestia was told at the press service of the Khakassian Interior Ministry. "The situation is very common. In a recent case, for example, two inspectors stopped a car on the Abakan-Sayanogorsk road and found that the driver had no documents on him. The man tried to solve the problem by means of 1,000 rubles (around $35). A video camera hidden in the patrol car taped the entire episode. The recording served as evidence."

The reward for a traffic policeman spells a prison term for the offender. Charges were pressed and the offenders were brought to court, the press service said. They will probably just be fined, although Article 291, which was cited against the hapless motorists, also provides for a three-year jail term.

The new methods of fighting corruption have not started working properly yet: inspectors prefer to earn their "bonuses" the old way. The job of a patrol officer has traditionally been among the top 10 most corrupt professions. The new system has been in operation for a year, but policemen do not seem to be lining up for rewards. "This year, we have paid out six bonuses for honest service," the press service said. "Last year there were seven cases all together." Clearly, it is easier for police officers to accept a dozen or so bribes than write a lengthy report and appear as a witness in court.

A Moscow traffic inspector whom Izvestia asked to comment was highly skeptical. "In any case, it is easier to take the money than spend half an hour writing up a report," he said grimly. But then he brightened up: "What if a drunk driver offers me 100,000? Will I get a million as a reward? That might be interesting."

RIA Novosti is not responsible for the content of outside sources.

MOSCOW, March 19 (RIA Novosti)