Vedomosti
Medvedev may run for president in 2012
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said at Stanford University on Thursday that he might run for a second presidential term.
The rumor that the Medvedev-Putin tandem would distribute roles for the 2012 presidential election first appeared in September 2009. When talking with political analysts at the Valdai International Discussion Club, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said they would settle the matter with Medvedev. "When it comes to 2012, we'll work it out together," Putin said.
Two weeks later, Medvedev said he "does not rule out" seeking reelection if everything goes well and he has "the support of the people."
A few days after that, Putin said the decision would depend on the effectiveness of their - his own and Medvedev's - activity. He also said ratings should be disregarded because a politician cannot focus on the economic decisions his country needs if he thinks only about winning points and the upcoming elections.
In other words, both Putin and Medvedev have declared their potential intention to run for presidency in 2012.
Polls show that people support Putin more than Medvedev. Alexei Grazhdankin, deputy director of the Levada Center, said the issues of who to vote for and who will work better are two different questions. According to him, people think that Medvedev is an ornamental figure and, although he is fulfilling his duties well, Putin would be a better choice as president.
On the other hand, the gap in trust rating between Putin and Medvedev was initially much bigger.
It has shrunk because Medvedev has improved his standing, said Valery Fyodorov, head of the VTsIOM pollster. People think the president dealt quite efficiently with the two main challenges of his first term - the war with Georgia and the economic crisis, he said.
Medvedev's rating has grown noticeably, political analyst Mikhail Vinogradov said.
A high-ranking Kremlin official said the results of polls on the 2012 elections are not a sufficient argument for the Kremlin, because it is still two years until the elections and they don't even have a list of potential candidates. The degree of people's trust for the leader and his actions is more important, he said.
Medvedev's other advantage is that he will be 47 in 2012 while Putin will turn 60. According to the Levada poll, most Russians think the retirement age for the president and the prime minister should be 60-65 years.
However, Putin is a man without age; people do not think about his age in terms of the elections, Vinogradov said.
Ratings in Russia can be controlled. If TV channels start showing Putin three times as often as Medvedev, the gap between them will start growing, Grazhdankin concludes.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Bucharest blacklists Moscow
Romanian President Traian Basescu has submitted to the parliament a draft national defense strategy listing Russia as an external threat. The document says the deployment of Russian forces in the Republic of Moldova threatens Romania's national security.
The defense strategy mentions the deployment of foreign troops, rather than Russia's peacekeeping force, near Romanian borders. Moldovan media has promptly reported Bucharest's intention to take an active part in the region's demilitarization and the withdrawal of illegally deployed weapons systems.
The response in Transnistria, a breakaway territory located between the Dniester River, the eastern Moldovan border, and Ukraine, where the Russian task force is deployed, has been more emphatic: Bucharest must not intervene, or it will do more harm than good.
Transnistria's Foreign Minister Vladimir Yastrebchak stressed that the self-proclaimed republic's stance regarding the presence of the Russian peacekeeping force and limited troop contingent on its territory had remained unchanged since the end of the 1992 armed conflict between Chisinau and Tiraspol.
Commenting on Romania's proposal to mediate a bilateral peace settlement, Yastrebchak said Bucharest had already acted as mediator in the run-up to the 1992 war. At the time Romania supplied weapons to the Moldovan army, which had unleashed the conflict.
It may be a paradox, but Serafim Urekyan, leader of the Alliance Our Moldova, part of the Alliance for European Integration ruling coalition, supported Yastrebchak. Although Moldova and Romania are more than just neighbors, Bucharest had better mind its own business and not intervene in our affairs, Urekyan said.
The Moldovan politician said the conflict between Chisinau and Tiraspol should be settled in line with the Five Plus Two negotiating format involving Russia, Ukraine and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) as guarantors and mediators, the European Union and the United States as observers, as well as Moldova and Transnistria as the parties to the conflict.
Urekyan also said the peace settlement should duly heed the relevant agreements on this issue between Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Bucharest's new draft national security strategy notes that the last barriers dividing a single nation could be eliminated by involving Romania in a common European space, Urekyan said. This implies Moldova being openly called a second Romanian state by Bucharest, which does not recognize the existence of the Moldovan nation.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow and Brussels would do everything possible to resume negotiations, and that the main task was to search for a mutually acceptable resolution of this conflict through the preservation and strengthening of Moldovan sovereignty. Lavrov added that the EU may become involved in the Transnistria peacekeeping mission.
Rossiiskaya Gazeta
Gas shipments resumed in full
Yesterday Gazprom confirmed that Beltransgaz had paid its debts for Russian gas supplies. Gas supply restrictions were lifted, and Belarus started receiving Russian gas in full, Gazprom's head Alexei Miller told President Dmitry Medvedev over the phone.
Yesterday Vladimir Putin held a brief meeting on natural gas supplies to Belarus. Gazprom's head Alexei Miller said that Minsk had paid debts that had been building up since early 2010. "At 10.00 a.m. Moscow time Gazprom resumed gas shipments to Belarus in full, but the issue has not been settled yet. We received a letter from the Belarusian first deputy prime minister in which he demanded that Russia pay for the transit of gas through Belarus under terms other than those set out in the contract. Belarus threatened to stop the gas transit should there be any default on obligations set out in this letter," Miller said.
Another factor aggravates the situation, Putin said, as Belarus and Russia have a special relationship, and Russia supplies the republic with gas at rock bottom prices. "No consumer enjoys lower prices for Russian natural gas than Belarus. Even after we reduced prices for Ukraine by $100, Ukrainian consumers get gas at $234 per 1,000 cubic meters, while Belarusian consumers pay $184 per 1,000 cu m," the prime minister said.
He emphasized that, despite Belarus's desire to increase the gas transit price, a special contract exists, "and contractual obligations both for gas supply prices and gas transit prices must be honored by both parties."
So, despite the fact that Belarus paid its debt, problems between Minsk and Gazprom are not settled yet. Gazprom's official representative Sergei Kupriyanov told reporters that Gazprom had also paid for the gas transit through Belarus at $1.45 per cu m. However, Minsk insists on a higher price. Kupriyanov clarified that, according to the contract, the basic price is $1.45 and that Russia used this price to calculate transit costs, which totaled $228 million. He also noted that the Belarusian side and Gazprom set up a joint venture in which Gazprom and Beltransgaz signed a protocol stipulating a possible increase of the transit price.
Gazprom sent documents to Belarus for approval, which will allow an increase in the gas transit price as long as extra charges are introduced for Beltransgaz's wholesale sales on the domestic market, Gazprom's official representative Sergei Kupriyanov said.
BFM.RU
State guarantees drive Russia into debt
In terms of state guarantees, Russia's state debt has risen 12 times between 2006 and 2010 - to 1.25 trillion rubles, said Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak. In 2006, it stood at 91 billion rubles.
"Though we have practically no unscheduled debt left ... we are now facing a new challenge - state guarantees which we began granting in the mid-2000s and then increased during the crisis, when guarantees were provided under a simplified system," Storchak said.
In 2009-2010, guarantees issued reached one trillion rubles in Russian currency and 200 billion rubles in foreign currency. In 2010, the government continued issuing guarantees. In the first quarter, it granted 42 guarantees totaling over 55 billion rubles. Draft amendments to the federal budget for this year, and for 2011 and 2012, will result in the further growth of guarantees, as well as in new varieties of guarantees, says an explanatory note to the amendments. State guarantees on investment projects will grow from 100 billion rubles to 175 billion. State guarantees on investment projects in Chechnya will increase from 10 to 15 billion rubles.
The Russian budget is a variable quantity, depending on the prices for oil, metals and other exported raw materials, Yakov Mirkin, chairman of Evrofinansy investment company, told BFM.ru. "Given a favorable pricing, the growth in state guarantees may not be a problem." Conversely, "with prices showing poor dynamics, particularly under pressure from the strengthening dollar, this growth may prove to be a strong influence on the budget," Mirkin says.
But state guarantees, he added, are only one of the budget commitments. "It is more correct to take into account all obligations assumed by the state, the entire amount of state spending. And this is now a mounting wave, though the tax burden in Russia is almost 50% of GDP," the analyst says. "Another variable to remember: the investment component of state spending, and its ability to regulate economic growth. If those who describe state budget investment as ineffective, as investment in site preparations at excessive prices, are right, then growth in state guarantees is likely to increase risk. But given a favorable price outlook, we may not remember this increase in commitments in a couple of years."
To meet the budget deficit, Russia will have to borrow about 10% of the 1.5 trillion rubles initially planned on external markets. According to Storchak, the Ministry of Finance would rather focus on the home market. Previously, Deputy Minister of Finance Dmitry Pankin said that Russia could cut external borrowings to $7.5 billion in the next two years.
Vzglyad
Top Moldovan official signs controversial document
(Acting Moldovan president tries to add Soviet Occupation Day to national calendar)
Moldovan Parliament Speaker Mihai Gimpu, who is now acting president of Moldova, has signed a decree on marking Soviet Occupation Day every June 28. Gimpu admitted that he had issued the decree without consulting his colleagues in the Alliance for European Integration ruling coalition.
On June 28, 1940, Soviet forces entered Bessarabia, and this became a black day in the history of Moldova, Gimpu said.
Political analyst Pavel Svyatenkov at the Moscow-based Institute of National Strategy said Moldova was following in the wake of other East European states, former Warsaw Pact members.
"But Moldova was part of the Soviet Union. It has an absolutely special status because Moldovan nationalists believe that there is only one Romanian, rather than Moldovan, nation. Moldova's conversion to anti-Communism is another step in severing ties with Russia," Svyatenko told the paper.
Gennady Konenko, head of the Moldova and Transdnestr section at the Institute of CIS Studies, said the decision to institute Soviet Occupation Day was not historically or legally motivated. He said Romania had taken advantage of Soviet Russia's weaknesses in 1918 and seized the Bessarabia Gubernia (Region) which had been part of the Russian Empire since 1812.
The opposition Communist Party of Moldova thinks that Gimpu has soured relations with Russia and was whipping up an anti-Communist hysteria in order to boost his popularity ratings before presidential elections. The latest opinion polls show Gimpu is supported by only 2% of respondents. Consequently, he is in no position to assume top state positions in the future.
In his decree, Gimpu demanded that Russia, the Soviet Union's legal successor, unconditionally and promptly withdraw its forces and weapons from Moldova. A Russian troop contingent has been fulfilling a peacekeeping mission in the self-proclaimed Transdnestr Republic since 1992.
Yuri Muntyan, Executive Secretary of the Moldovan Communist Party's Central Committee, said Gimpu and other ruling coalition leaders were ready to deprive Russian of its interethnic language status, and were preparing to amend the current polyethnic national policy concept.
Muntyan said his party was preparing to oppose official repressions strictly by legal means. The Communist Party is confident that Gimpu's decisions will be abolished after it stages a political comeback. Consequently, there will probably not be enough time for June 28 to become part of Moldova's political calendar.
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MOSCOW, June 25 (RIA Novosti)
