Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Izvestia
Valdai Club reviews its work
This year, over 30 Russian and nearly 40 foreign political analysts and journalists gathered onboard the Kronstadt cruise ship to discuss Russia's past and future and decide where we go from here. Should Russia join any groups? Or should it maintain a military political alliance with the United States and a socio-political rapprochement with Europe while integrating with Asia, "the locomotive of global economy?"
Or maybe Russia should take a break instead of making a final and irrevocable commitment right now whether it should look to Europe or to Asia?
"We do not really know what Asia will be like five to seven years from now," a discussion participant said. Europe's prospects are not clear either. In 2008, the European Union ranked 9th in terms of global influence, lower than India, Russia and Japan; even specific European countries, such as Germany and France apparently had more influence on global developments than their union as a whole.
Dr. Sheng Shiliang, chief researcher with the Center for Global Challenges Studies at the Xinhua News Agency, said Russia should remain independent although that will pose certain challenges. The government should rely on its own strengths, while accepting reasonable assistance of the international community, and make the country an attractive place to live and invest in.
Many speakers at the Valdai conference admitted potential difficulties in Russia's rapprochement with Europe. Russia is bound to share a future with Europe, but it cannot accept all of Europe's rules, one of the participants said. The main obstacle is that Russia itself is not ready for European integration. Integration implies that the potential parts are compatible and similarly structured, the analyst said assessing Russia's chances of joining the European "family."
Rossiyskaya Gazeta had the opportunity to look at questionnaires the participants had filled out for a new project, the Valdai Index, aimed at measuring Russia's economic, social and political development. They had to rate important factors affecting Russia's development on a scale from -5 to +5.
The majority of foreign participants used positive numbers to evaluate Russia's role in the global and regional security and its diplomatic activity. However, many gave only a modest mark to Russia's current political system and economic development, and to Russia as an attractive business destination.
Russian participants gave more radical assessments. The only factor where a clearly positive trend prevailed was foreign policy. Evaluations of the other factors were rather pessimistic. Indicatively, Dr. Sheng Shiliang said at one of the meetings that Russia should primarily boost its self esteem, because low self esteem makes it an immediate target for external criticism.
RBC Daily
Think tank offers Kremlin script of entry into NATO
The Institute of Contemporary Development (INSOR), a Moscow-based nonprofit think tank affiliated with current Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who heads INSOR's board of trustees, has submitted a report on expanded Russia-NATO relations.
Several options, including Moscow's accession to the alliance, are stipulated. Analysts say the latter scenario is absolutely unrealistic in the short term and propose simply modifying the format of bilateral cooperation.
The report, called "Prospects for Expanded Russia-NATO Relations," advocates three options for expanded Russia-NATO relations: Moscow's complete integration into the alliance, accession on the basis of a bilateral strategic security treaty or the establishment of a coordinating international organization council.
The last option calls for merging other influential international organizations, including the European Union, the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and possibly the UN, with NATO. The report stipulates no deadlines for implementing these scenarios.
"Dmitry Medvedev has the report and is expected to read it in the near future," an INSOR spokesperson noted. INSOR representatives are to present the report's main points on September 9 at a political forum in Yaroslavl.
INSOR Director Igor Yurgens said the institute had advocated a plan for Russia-NATO rapprochement for a long time. The current report lists several scenarios, including ones based on confrontation and peaceful cooperation.
He declined to say which plan was the most feasible. "Everything will depend on the situation in Russia and proposals regarding the alliance's transformation, due to be made at the NATO summit in Lisbon this December," Yurgens said.
Analysts do not believe in rapid Russia-NATO rapprochement. "Such rapprochement is possible but will not happen soon," said Vladimir Yevseyev, a military analyst with the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO).
"There are too many disagreements in our current relations. Europe still cannot forgive us for the conflict with Georgia over South Ossetia, and we have misgivings about the European missile defense system and the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty," Yevseyev said.
Other analysts believe that Russia has been methodically preparing to join NATO and is implementing a military reform for that purpose. "In the next few years, Israeli and NATO weapons will account for 30% of the Russian Army's weaponry," said Leonid Ivashov, President of the Academy on Geopolitical Affairs."
"The conversion to the brigade system, purchases of foreign equipment and joint military exercises all aim to facilitate adaptation to the NATO system," Ivashov said.
Ivashov quoted Yurgens as saying that Medvedev was the first modern Russian leader who did not consider the break-up of the Soviet Union as a disaster and whose policy aimed to integrate Russia into the system of Euro-Atlantic security and to ensure its accession to NATO.
Kommersant
IzhAvto resumes assembly operations
Russian carmaker IzhAvto, which came to a standstill in the spring of 2009 because of the crisis and laid off 5,000 workers, is to resume operation this week. It will start assembling Lada cars, to be followed later with South Korean Hyundai-Kia models.
This, however, will not solve IzhAvto's problems because only half of its capacities will be used. In a year's time, with Lada cars taken off production, the issue of expanding its model line will be addressed again. Contract assembly does not bring in enough profits to pay off its debt of almost 15 billion rubles quickly enough.
On Friday, the United Auto Group (OAG), which administers IzhAvto for the benefit of creditors, reached an agreement with Hyundai-Kia on resuming the assembly of its models at IzhAvto facilities. The plant assembled them before the crisis (the Kia Spectra and Sorento), but came to a total standstill and dismissed all its staff of 5,000 people in the spring of 2009. Kia and Hyundai Russian offices declined to comment. OAG head Igor Kulgan did not comment either. But two sources close to the group said "talks with the Korean side are close to completion."
According to sources, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin will arrive at IzhAvto this week to oversee a conveyor start-up ceremony. The plant has everything in place to begin the assembly of the Lada 2104 from AvtoVAZ kits. At the same time, OAG may announce assembly agreements with Hyundai-Kia, the sources say.
Two new models are expected to be added to the ones that were assembled before the crisis: the new generation Sorento and a new version of the Cerato, which was never assembled in Russia before. Also, the plant may start assembly of commercial vehicles for Hyundai.
Kulgan said IzhAvto plans to assemble 60,000 Hyundai and Kia units a year. Another 70,000 to 90,000 cars will be assembled under the Lada brand - these are classic vehicles - and in addition to the Lada 2104, there will be other models assembled: the 2105 and the 2107. IzhAvto's design capacity is 220,000 cars a year, or the two projects will enable the plant to use only half of its capacities.
Contract assembly is not the most lucrative business, and it is not clear how IzhAvto is going to repay its debts, with only half of its capacities in operation, says Mikhail Pak from Aton investment company: so far, the launch of production looks like an attempt to address social issues.
With AvtoVAZ ceasing to assemble Ladas at IzhAvto, the plant is most likely to focus on the assembly of Hyundai-Kia cars, expanding the model series of the Korean giant, believes Alexander Agibalov, managing director of AG Capital.
The Koreans have serious intentions in Russia, Agibalov says. In 2011, Hyundai is launching its own plant outside St. Petersburg to produce 150,000 cars. In sales figures for January-July 2009, Kia ranks second, and Hyundai, eighth.
Rossiiskaya Gazeta
Russia, EU set to expand mutual cooperation
General Nikolai Makarov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, met with Swedish General Hakan Syren, Chairman of the European Union Military Committee (EUMC), now paying his first official visit to Russia.
Makarov and Syren agreed that the Russian Defense Ministry and the EUMC would establish a working group, due to plan and coordinate joint actions.
The two generals discussed methods to combat sea piracy, peacekeeping and humanitarian operations, missile defense issues, reduction of conventional forces in Europe and other aspects of regional security.
Makarov and Syren, who met at the NATO Headquarters in Brussels in early 2010, are now continuing their dialogue in Moscow.
"We attach great importance to joint Russia-EU actions. We have many questions requiring discussion in order to understand each other's stance," Makarov told his counterpart.
Syren supported him, noting that Russia-EU military cooperation was just beginning, but that it would inevitably yield practical results. Technically speaking, such cooperation is already producing results in Chad and off the Somali coast, where Russian and European military are conducting successful peacekeeping operations and are fighting pirates.
Although Makarov and Syren held talks behind closed doors, the massive Russian delegation comprising Deputy Chief the General Staff Colonel General Valery Gerasimov, General Chernyayev, Head of the Air Force's Aviation Department, and First Deputy Chief of the Navy Main Headquarters, Vice-Admiral Oleg Burtsev, made it possible to assess the range of issues discussed.
Syren is scheduled to visit the Fifth Independent Taman Motorized Rifle Brigade in Alabino near Moscow, where Makarov planned to inform him on major changes in the Russian Armed Forces.
General Gerasimov briefly discussed this issue with journalists. The establishment of the West Military District became the first step in overhauling the military control system. The South, Central and East military Districts will be subsequently overhauled by October 1, 2010, two months ahead of a schedule approved by President Dmitry Medvedev.
The Navy Main Headquarters could be converted into a General Staff department by 2012 and stationed at the Main Army Headquarters in Moscow. The headquarters will reportedly start relocating by late 2010.
Naval departments will be established at the headquarters of the West, South and East Military Districts in order to control regional fleet forces.
If the reports are true, it is logical to assume that the Army and Air Force headquarters will also be overhauled accordingly because their regional commands are also being resubordinated to commanders of the new military districts.
Some sources say the main headquarters will fulfill fewer functions, and that their staffs will be reduced three-fold.
Vedomosti
Antimonopoly service in talks with four oil majors
A dispute between the Federal Antimonopoly Service (FAS) and four Russian oil companies may end amicably. Lukoil, Rosneft, Gazprom Neft and TNK-BP are accused of price fixing on the wholesale oil products market in 2008 and the first quarter of 2009. The companies face a fine of 26.1 billion rubles, but all of them are challenging the court ruling.
FAS head Igor Artemyev has always said that an out-of-court settlement is out of the question. In June, he said that he had received amicable proposals from Rosneft, but gave assurance that no negotiations would be held unless Prime Minister Vladimir Putin gave the go-ahead.
That such permission was issued became clear at Friday hearings in the Moscow Commercial Court, which considered a claim by Gazprom Neft against FAS. The judge examined the FAS claim and postponed the proceedings until October 1.
A source close to the case said that a FAS spokesperson told the court that the service was accepting an out-of-court settlement at the government's request. Talks are also going on with the other three companies. A precondition for an amicable settlement is the companies' admission of guilt.
The prime minister did not issue special permission, said his Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov, but the possibility of an out-of-court settlement was agreed with him, and he has full information about its possible signing. In the next few days, the situation will be resolved, Peskov said.
In June, commenting on Rosneft's proposals, Artemyev said that by agreement, it was possible to cut the fine down to 1% of the turnover, but only if the company admits its guilt. Ruling out a fine altogether would not work: the law does not allow it. Rosneft's first fine is 1.5 billion rubles, or 1.1% of the turnover, and the second is 5.3 billion rubles, or more than 4% of the turnover. FAS can reduce the fine to 2.7 billion rubles.
One can rejoice for the oil companies' sake, says Igor Yurgens, vice-president of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, but a sudden shifting of the goalposts by officials cannot be welcomed. Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, chairman of the Rosneft board of directors, oversees the oil sector, he said, and a major change in FAS positions is a signal to businesses to look for a patron.
RIA Novosti is not responsible for the content of outside sources.
MOSCOW, September 6 (RIA Novosti)
