Kremlin considers presidential successor in 2008

MOSCOW, August 11 (RIA Novosti) - The Russian presidency is being widely discussed in Russia's political circles, a leading weekly reported Thursday.

Argumenty i Fakty asked Russian politicians and analysts about whether or not President Vladimir Putin would remain in power for a third term, and who his successor might be if he were to leave office.

Boris Makarenko, the deputy director of the Center for Political Technologies, told the paper that Putin would choose a successor no earlier than at the end of 2006. Until that time, the expert said candidates could be shuffled around every month, as the Kremlin had a dozen scenarios for Operation Successor, but was yet to make its final choice.

The president of the Effective Politics Foundation, Gleb Pavlovsky, was quoted as saying that the successor problem was only interesting for careerists who were seeking to take power from Putin along with his moral authority. In his opinion, nothing similar to the 1999 handover of power, when Boris Yeltsin transfer his authority to Putin, would happen. Russians were initially spellbound by Yeltsin, but finally disenchanted with him. Putin, though, has not made such a mistake.

If Putin wants to stay after 2008, he needs significant changes in Russia, such as establishing a considerable increase in the prime minister's authority. A powerful team around the president would need to draft state reforms in 2006 and then put them to a referendum. Then Putin's position might come into the equation.

Putin himself has no need to be in power after 2008. His presence is needed for his successors to keep about 50 million Putin supporters on board.

The weekly also cited an independent member of the lower chamber of the Russian parliament, Vladimir Ryzhkov, as saying Putin understood that any form of extending his presidency would lead to destabilization in the country and damage to Russia's international prestige. However, Putin does not want to be a lame duck. Once he felt that he might lose control over the situation, he sent a signal that he could feasibly stay in power.