According to Ekspert, Russia's "gas attack" may be perceived as a bid to undermine Ukraine's Orange Revolution parties, swept into power on the back of last year's mass opposition protests against election rigging by then-President Leonid Kuchma and his inner circle. After all, it is the new government's anti-Russian policies that have put average Ukrainians in danger of freezing, the magazine said. (Gazprom, the main purveyor of natural gas to Ukraine, has threatened to turn off supplies at the beginning of 2006 unless the country agrees to pay four times as much as it has been paying until now).
Under the Ukrainian constitution, the party that wins a parliamentary majority will form the government. The country's three main political parties - President Viktor Yushchenko's People's Union "Our Ukraine," former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko's bloc and her predecessor Viktor Yanukovych's Party of Regions - are now neck and neck in their approval ratings, each with about 20%.
The magazine said that, given the Yushchenko vs. Tymoshenko standoff, Ukraine's fate lies with a volatile coalition, in which a prominent role will likely be played by Yanukovych's pro-Russian party.
But instead of swinging voter preferences in Yanukovych's favor, Russia's pressure may galvanize Yushchenko's and Tymoshenko's electorates, leading to a rapprochement between the Orange Revolution parties, the magazine said.
This may also add to Tymoshenko's popularity, as she is now associated with neither the incumbent government, blamed for having brought the gas pricing conflict to the brink of a crisis, nor with Yanukovych.
According to the magazine, Russia has obviously distanced itself from the Yanukovych party. If indeed it is working to change Ukraine's political landscape, Russia is directing its efforts not at the Yanukovych party, but at some second-tier parties, whose success in the upcoming polls could increase non-Orange representation in parliament.
But Ekspert warned that Russia's policies should not just be viewed in the light of the upcoming elections in Ukraine. The magazine said Russia is trying to retain control over ex-Soviet neighbors by establishing the prices for its natural gas.
According to Ekspert, Russia has the upper hand in negotiations with Kiev on the matter, proving to other former Soviet republics that Russia is not to be messed with.
However, Ekspert acknowledged that Russia's stance has its weak spots. If Europe supports Ukraine, Russia will lose its clout.
But the magazine said that if it is intent on nicking Russian gas, Ukraine will have to secure Europe's consent.
