The reserves reached a highpoint of $596 billion in July, but had fallen to $556 billion as of September 30. The prediction for the end-of-year level was included in draft guidelines for 2009-2011 monetary policy posted on the Central Bank's website.
According to the draft, foreign trade conditions for Russia are expected to deteriorate in 2009-2011, compared with the previous three-year period. This environment will restrict Russia's economic growth and curb inflation.
According to the Central Bank, the slowing of growth in the production of goods and services, which began in 2008, will continue in 2009, in accordance with forecasts.
"The slowing of growth in demand expected in 2009 in countries that are the leading importers of Russian goods, the slowing of growth in consumer prices in countries that are the leading suppliers of goods to Russia, and also the possibility of declines in the prices of raw materials in line with world market trends, will affect the Russian economy by restricting economic growth and curbing inflation," the draft said.
In 2010 and 2011 global economic growth will be slower than in 2009-2011, the draft said.
In accordance with the draft, the Russian government and the Central Bank have set the task of cutting inflation to 7.0-8.5% in 2009, 5.5-7.0% in 2010 and 5.0-6.8% in 2011.
At the same time, the government's 11.8% inflation forecast for 2008 will be exceeded, rising to around 13%, the draft said.
Under the draft, the Central Bank has considerably cut its forecast for growth in international reserves to $543-668 billion in 2009 from the earlier expected increase to $654-778 billion, in line with trends on world oil markets.
