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‘Rally Wars’ Could Backfire on Kremlin – Analysts

© RIA Novosti . Alexandr Vilf / Go to the mediabankOpposition rally in Moscow
Opposition rally in Moscow - Sputnik International
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The Kremlin tactic of trying to match a grassroots opposition protest in Moscow with its own mass rallies could backfire because government loyalists have no real desire to take part in street protests, a political analysts said Saturday, as opponents and supporters of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin staged separate rallies in Moscow.

The Kremlin tactic of trying to match a grassroots opposition protest in Moscow with its own mass rallies could backfire because government loyalists have no real desire to take part in street protests, political analysts said Saturday, as opponents and supporters of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin staged separate rallies in Moscow.

“A war of rallies is already raging but it only works on TV,” said Alexei Makarkin of the Center for Political Technologies.

Police said the opposition rally attracted between 34,000 and 36,000 people, though organizers insisted it was closer to 120,000. Meanwhile, police say the pro-Putin event gathered about 140,000 participants. Police have consistently downplayed the attendance figures for all the previous anti-Putin rallies.

Numerous media and blog reports show that many of those who attended the pro-government rally were state employees who had been made to attend by their bosses. Authorities denied this; however, even organizers and Putin himself conceded that this was possible. Analysts contacted by RIA Novosti said they had no doubt that most attendees were forced into coming.

“Putin’s supporters are passive and not interested in politics,” said Mikhail Vinogradov, head of the Petersburg Politics Foundation think tank. His opinion was echoed by Makarkin and Nikolai Petrov of the Carnegie Moscow Center, who said the authorities had used the “carrot and stick” approach to get people out to the rally in Poklonnaya Gora memorial park in western Moscow.

“Several thousand is the maximum such an event can attract voluntarily,” Makarkin said by telephone on Saturday, citing attendance at a similar rally, a grassroots pro-Putin event that was set to balance a massive opposition protest in Moscow on December 24.

Putin is trying to show off his support base to his opponents ahead of the presidential elections in March, which he hopes to win without a runoff by sweeping more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round, Petrov said.

However, Putin’s own supporters are likely to be angry at being made to attend against their wishes, Petrov said.

“A semi-forced participation in the rally could cause a negative, even aggressive reaction, especially given that the protest drive is not decreasing,” as the authorities had hoped after two opposition rallies in December, Vinogradov said.

Analysts remained divided on whether the strategy would help Putin achieve his goal of winning the elections in the first round. Petrov said the disgruntled loyalists may cost the Prime Minister the crucial two to three percent of the vote, while Makarkin said the visuals of a “[politically] divided Moscow” could help sway swing voters in the regions.

The pro-Putin drive would barely be able to sustain itself in case a new wave of protests was to follow the presidential elections, analysts said.

“A war of rallies is more beneficial for the protesters. Putin won’t win that war,” Vinogradov said.

The Kremlin already attempted a similar strategy after the “color revolutions” in Georgia and Ukraine in mid-2000s. Several youth groups were created at the time, the most prominent and long-lasting being Nashi, which was tasked with staging mass rallies to counter street activities by radical opposition groups, like the now-banned National Bolshevik Party.

However, Nashi was made up of mostly uneducated youth and didn't have a social base broad enough to serve as a counterbalance to the current protests, which encompass people of all ages, though mostly from the middle-classes, Petrov said.

 

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