Russia and Euro-Atlantic

The rapid changes in the world economy and politics yet another time raise an “evergreen” Russian issue of its relations with larger  Europe or with the Euro-Atlantic region.

Russia partly belongs to it, too. Yet, it cannot and does not want to join it yet. Meanwhile, this choice looks largely different for Russia than it was even a few years ago.

It is becoming obvious that the Euro-Atlantic civilization, which seemed to have won, in the new world is lagging somewhat behind China and other Asian countries which have turned out to be the true winners of the Cold War.

The new configuration raises the problem of Russia’s geostrategic choice in a new way, especially amidst the prevailing internal development trends. Despite the encouraging talk about innovation-based development, the de-modernization of the Russian economy continues. Having allowed corruption to assume such a scope and depth, the state and society have deprived themselves for the time being  of instruments for implementing this modernization.

The choice is complicated by the evolution of the political system. For the first time in decades, the values gap between Russia and Europe of the  EU is apparently increasing. Europe is overcoming state nationalism and Russia is building a nation state. The other Europeans, broken by history and not wishing it to happen again, have chosen a policy of compromise and renunciation of the direct use of force in international relations. Russians, in contrast, have to make emphasis on “hard power”, including military force – because it lives in a much more dangerous world and has no one to hide behind from it. And because of the lack of “soft power” – social, cultural and economic attractiveness. So it has to use the “competitive advantages” available.

The internal political development in Russia and the West is different-vectored as well. Russia is not moving in the direction of democracy.

The values gap is not an insurmountable obstacle on the way to geostrategic rapprochement. But this gap is coupled with mutual irritation or worse, which is particularly strong in Russia. Russia’s elite has never considered itself defeated in the Cold War. Meanwhile, the West tried to treat Russia, after its own anti-Communist revolution as a defeated country. NATO’s expansion stands as a symbol of such an attitude, laying a deep foundation for a potentially rough confrontation.  It was only after the West encountered an armed rebuff in South Ossetia that it stopped its expansion. Yet it has not given up its expansion plans.

This unwillingness to close the issue once and for all is coupled with a repeated refusal to recognize Russia’s right to have a zone of its own special interests. But NATO’s expansion is nothing more than the extension of its zone of influence and even moreover, this is done in the most sensitive, military-political sphere.

NATO’s expansion has made the Cold War actually unfinished. The ideological and military confrontation which underlay the Cold War is gone, but the geopolitical rivalry that was behind it has come to the fore.

There is also a deadlock in Russia-EU relations, which emerged for objective reasons and, partly, due to the achieved high level of rapprochement between the parties. This deadlock is not antagonistic and may be overcome some day. But decisions are made here and now.

Faced with the impossibility of its advantageous accession to the Euro-Atlantic space, Russia is drifting fast towards prioritizing cooperation with China – even if as a “younger brother,” although a respected one.

The “Asian choice” of today is not the same as the Slavophil - Eurasian choice of the past. It looks like a choice in favor of a rapidly rising civilization.

But the present estrangement from Europe – the cradle of Russian civilization and modernization – threatens Russia’s identity and increases geostrategic risks in the future.

Europe does not benefit from this estrangement either. It would continue to move towards becoming a big Venice – that is, towards affluent decay. The U.S. also loses. Without Russia, which will remain the third strongest international power in the foreseeable future, it is impossible to solve the key problems of international security.

However, the present Euro-Atlantic security architecture seems to suit the majority of Americans and Europeans, who take no thought that it is becoming increasingly fragile and counterproductive.

So Russia will now have to struggle for the creation of a new architecture on its own – whether through the signing of a new treaty on collective European security, or even through its accession to NATO. This is not only Russian political and civilizational interest but also our duty to the entire community of Euro-Atlantic nations, which is weakening itself by the “unfinished Cold War”.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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