Orietta Moscatelli, head of the New Europe project at the Apcom news agency

Barack Obama is ditching the missile defence project and suggesting the possibility that Moscow takes part in (to) a new ‘multilevel’ defensive project. When a disappointed Czech Prime Minister first announced the revision of George W. Bush’s plan, I was just back from Yakutia, mid-September, as usual revisiting the debates we had at the annual Valdai Club meeting:  Is the Cold War really over? What are the prospects of a nuclear reset between Russia and the US? Most analysts were expecting the new American administration’s move, though diverging on the final goal for scrapping the missile shield plan: some of us would see it more as a way to shelve unnecessary expenses after a ‘downgrading’ of the Russian threat, others would feel there is a new vision for international security behind it. I belong to the second team. If I were still discussing with the Valdai colleagues, the question now would be: Obama is opening a new chapter for US military plans. Is this going to lead to the real end of the Cold War, finally? 
 
Valdai Club works this way: food for thought, for months. While navigating on the Lena river and launching our discussions, nearly everybody started by saying that “of course Cold War it’s over”, adding then a whole line of ‘buts’, concluding that there is still a lot to do to bury the hatchet once for all. In terms of personal freedom, attitudes, ways of thinking it looks like the world has moved a thousand years away from the time when the conflict between the Soviet Union and the United States would influence the life of virtually every single human being in the West and the East. But in terms of stability that past seems not so far away: think about Georgia last year, think about Ukraine since 2004, or let’s not forget Polish and Czech fears over Obama’s moves. In spite of the fact that, clearly, the centre of world politics is shifting away from Europe, and considering the growing weight of developing countries such as China and India, still a full stop to the Cold war era has to be reached in Europe, the epicentre of the once-upon-a-time real confrontation. And that can happen when Russia will sit at the table of decision-makers, upgraded from the list of the old enemies to that of new partners. With a – real - say in terms of European security.  This was a point underlined by many Russian observers at the Valdai meeting this year, with force and sometimes with irritation. I think they have a point and the US move is somehow a confirmation.
 
When president Dmitri Medvedev talks about a new Security Treaty for Europe, he certainly thinks about raising Russia’s international status and stature in a new international framework. But, first of all, he’s saying that without Russia, the new world order will never be new enough. The same message has come for years from then president Vladimir Putin, now prime minister and always a protagonist of Western suspicions and fears. It’s about how Russia perceives itself today, but also about European identity, with the US always on the backstage.
 
Putting the missile defence plan on a shelf, president Obama is betting on an international chain reaction that Moscow can stop or energise further. The process could shape a major geopolitical realignment, starting with a new Russian position on Iran, following with nuclear disarm and much more to come. NATO’s General Secretary has already called for the US, Russia and NATO to link their missile defence systems against potential new nuclear threats from Asia and the Middle East. "We should explore the potential for linking the US, Nato and Russia missile defence systems at an appropriate time," said Fogh Rasmussen, commenting on the American decision to freeze Bush’s project. And inviting the old to forget their lingering Cold War.  ‘Lingering’ is the word I chose at the end of the 2009 edition of Valdai Club: not over, not going on, but lingering. Maybe next year there will be a serious update to make.