Alexander Rahr
Director of the Russia/Eurasia Program,
German Council on Foreign Relations, Berlin (since 1995)
The Cold War is indeed over. The tone and substance of this years's discussions in the Valdai Club differed much from the rhetoric and mutual accusations from last year. The West has "forgiven" Moscow its military intervention in Georgia and accepted the view that Georgian President Saakashvili provoked Russia. The Reset button has been several times pressed. U.S. President Obama has stopped the installation of anti-missile defense in Central Europe. It may well be that Russia, as a concession, has secretely promised to the U.S. not to sell the S-300 air-defense weapons to Iran. A chance exists now for true cooperation on a joint missile defense system between the U.S., Russia and the Europeans. The world is changing from a monopolar to a multipolar world.
The U.S., severely hit by the financial crisis, cannot afford dominating world affairs as Washington did since the end of the Cold War. A possible defeat of NATO in Afghanistan would dramatically increase the influence of islamic extremist forces througout the Greater Middle East.
Russia, so far, has taken a defensive attitude towards Western policies in general. Mosciw has severely criticized and successfully fought the idea of missile defense in Central Europe, Nato-expansion to Ukraine and Georgia and the opening of further U.S. basis in Central Asia. However, Russia must start to thing about the emergence of a new situation, when Western forces may competely quit the Middle East, leaving Iran and Pakistan as sole actors in the new vaccum? The danger that extremist islamic forces may aquire access to nuclear weapons would become real.
The world would move into a new era of assymetrical confrontation, with the West and Russia increasingly dependent on each other. Already at the next Valdai Club meeting in September 2010 will be confronted with these evolving issues.
